preparedness: principles, planning, and resources robert slaughter
TRANSCRIPT
Preparedness: Principles, Planning, and Resources
Robert Slaughter
Who am I?
I am not an ex-soldier, former police officer, or tactical operator, just an ordinary citizen
I am a liberty-minded person, attempting to be responsible and self-reliant
I am a History major, now involved in the information technology field
Within IT, I am an Analyst – I examine issues, ask questions, do research, and come up with recommendations for solutions
Those are the skills this presentation is meant to provide to you – a “Preparedness Analyst”
I have a wife (and a cat), but no children
And I am concerned about several significant issues in the world today, so I prepare
Not a brand-new beginner, but not nearly as far along in my preps as I would like to be
About this presentation
This presentation assumes you are familiar with the basics of preparedness
This presentation has two main parts Principles – ways to organize yourself and your
preparations, so that you are making sure that you have covered the fundamentals
Planning – ways to look at your personal preparedness to help you cover all the details
As we move through the presentation, and also at the end, resource suggestions will be provided
Regarding asking questions
There will be 'breaks' in the presentation specifically for asking questions
But if you need to, please go ahead and just ask! “Hey Bob, I have a question...”
There are no silly questions. There are no stupid questions. There are no 'obvious' questions
If you're thinking it, so is someone else here Ask! Our preparedness is important
What is preparedness?
Preparedness is not just being prepared for ‘the end of the world as we know it’ (“TEOTWAWKI”), though it could be
It is simply being prepared for any abnormal and disruptive situation, so that you and your family can remain safe and reasonably comfortable for the duration
Possible situations: Tornado or hurricane Disease outbreak Loss of job
More questions than answers
I will not be telling you what specific events to prepare for, or what specific preparations to make
Too many options and too many different opinions What I will be giving you are specific questions to
ask yourself, and approaches to examine potential situations, so you will make good judgments as to what you need to prepare for, and how to approach those scenarios in an organized fashion
At the end of this presentation, you will have a straight-forward and simple, useful process to follow to improve your preparedness
Discussion
Any questions or comments so far? FIRST: Principles
Principles
Several preparedness experts have looked at how they approach their preparedness activities, and created lists of guiding principles for others to use
By reviewing several examples of such principles, you can consider both where that person sits relative to you (and thus how strongly to consider their advice), and they can help you clarify your own personal principles of preparedness
Having an organized set of principles gives you a framework on which to 'hang' your preparedness planning upon; an organizing structure
James Wesley, Rawles
Mr. Rawles (and the comma is intentional) has distilled his approach to four main steps
Beans – have sufficient food and water available Bullets – have means of defending yourself, your
family, and your preparations Band-aids – have means of taking care of health,
both emergencies and long-term Bullion – have a means of trade and barter based in
tangible items with real value (junk silver, silver rounds, spare ammunition, alcohol, cigarettes, socks, etc.)
His suggestion is to apply these in that order
Rawles Resources
Website: Survivalblog.com Books: Non-fiction
“How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It”
Books: Fiction “Patriots”, “Survivors”, and “Founders”
Kellene Bishop
Kellene Bishop has created the “Ten Principles of Preparedness”
Preparedness Pro Resources
Website: PreparednessPro.com YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/user/PreparednessPro Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Preparedness-Pro Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/preparednesspro Book: Forthcoming
Prepography
Andrew Jackson of Prepography.com has come up with his Full Spectrum Preparedness Doctrine, with 10 principles and 4 aspects
Prepography Resources
Website: Prepography.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004138572281
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Prepography
PrepperLink
The folks at PrepperLink.com have created a diagram of the tasks and skills to be fully prepared
PrepperLink Resources
Website: PrepperLink.com Diagram:
http://www.prepperlink.com/index.php/prepare/getting-started/item/114-prepping-matrix-ver1
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/Prepperlink Twitter: http://twitter.com/PrepperLink YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/user/PrepperLink
Review
There are certain basics common to all sets Food and water First aid / medical
Two lists have an order, but with significantly different emphasis
Do any of the lists “ring true” (or instead, “ring false”) for you? Can you see ways of using these directly or creating your own personal approach?
Based on these sets of principles, have you spotted gaps in your own preparedness you were unaware of before?
My principles – guidelines
I see value in all the sets of principles, and in the planning matrix
In my opinion, more than five principles within a set starts being hard to recall and use
I like Prepography's four aspects as another dimension to principles
Tentative: Mental - “know”, Physical - “do”, Social - “who”
At the moment, mine are: Spirit, Sustenance, Security, Society, Silver
My (subject to change) principles
Spirit – a grounding in something greater than me “There is One Presence, and One Power, in my life and in all the
Universe: God, the Good, all-knowing, all-powerful, everywhere present”
Sustenance – food and water, both stores-on-hand and the means to re-supply
Security – firearms, self-defense, and other security and defense activities
Society – first-aid, shelter, communications, learning, and building a supporting community
I do not believe it is prudent to rely only on a small group for long-term scenarios
Silver – Silver and other tangible goods for barter
Discussion
Any questions or comments so far? NEXT: Planning
Planning – THE quote
“A failure to plan is planning to fail” Said by:
Benjamin Franklin ? Winston Churchill ? Alan Lakein ? (70's time-managment guru)
Does it really matter who said it? It is very necessary advice
Planning
By showing you a process for planning, the intent is to help you …
Understand how any potential threat impacts your personal preparedness plans
Decide if a given threat pertains to you and your family
Determine what specific preparations a given threat requires – duration, special changes, etc.
Understand how complete your preparations and planning are, and what gaps or modifications are required
“Write it down!”
Evaluating potential events
Once you have your basics in place for whatever period of time you have initially chosen (a minimum of 3 days to a month), you should start considering possible events for the impact on your planning
Write down a simple list of all events you can think of, discarding only those you believe are absolutely impossible
People have very different beliefs around various events, which makes a one-size-fits-all approach to preparedness planning so difficult
Rate each event on how important planning for it is to you: High, Medium, Low (not everything High)
Event evaluation
Starting with those events on your list most important to you, for each event answer the following questions as best you can:
How likely is the event to occur in the next 5 years? (Very High, High, Low, Very Low)
How likely is the event to occur in the next 20 years? (Very High, High, Low, Very Low)
How much lead-time will you get before the event trigger? How much time between the trigger and maximum impact? How long will the maximum impact of the event last? How long will there be significant impacts? Will life return to some level of normalcy afterwards?
Event evaluation: Tornado
Event: Tornado hitting your neighborhood, perhaps your home
How likely in 5 years? Very Low How likely in 20 years? Low Lead time: Zero to possibly a few hours Time between trigger and maximal impact: zero Length of critical period: minutes Length of significant impact: 3 days to several months Return of normalcy: Yes
These are my answers. Your's certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves
Event evaluation: Terrorist EMP
Event: Terrorist EMP via nuke launched over US from cargo ship
How likely in 5 years: High How likely in 20 years: High Lead time to trigger: zero Time before maximal impact: three days Length of critical period: two weeks to two months Length of significant impact: three to five years Return to normalcy? Yes, with caveats
These are my answers. Yours certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves
Event evaluation: Group choice
Event: ? How likely in 5 years: ? How likely in 20 years: ? Lead time to trigger: ? Time before maximal impact: ? Length of critical period: ? Length of significant impact: ? Return to normalcy? ?
These are some answers. Yours certainly may be different. Neither of us are wrong for ourselves
Looking at your evaluations
Do a batch (dozen) of evaluations, then for each, review its impacts on your prepping activities
Is the combination of likelihood and severity enough to adapt your plans?
Consider ranking events in priority before making changes
Would the event require sheltering-in-place or bugging-out?
What additional specific supplies, skills, or other changes are needed?
Write down your review on the evaluation (in a Notes section, or on the back)
Post-evaluation
After reviewing the impact of multiple events, look for commonality of changes needed. If multiple events require similar adaptations, consider folding those changes together, so that as many of those events are taken care of by as little time and expense as necessary
If circumstances around or understanding pertaining to an event changes, re-evaluate it, then review the revised event's impact on your planning
If changes in your life occur, use the evaluations to determine how best to adapt
Review all your evaluations at least once a year
Events – points to ponder
In addition to evaluating events, you should review your preparedness around your family's daily routine, especially around these potential impacts:
Where they may be when something happens Knowing what to do Knowing where to go
Having some level of formal consideration beforehand makes success more likely
Location-based example
Situation: Wife: at work Husband: At grocery store, doing weekly shopping Children: at school, 2 at elementary, one at middle/junior
high Event: News alert via media – nuclear devices detonated in
New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles
Who gets the kids from school? Using what route?Who gets home first? What do they need to do there?
Deciding these by phoning is not efficient, and potentially impossible (cell network overwhelmed)
Dealing with locations
Make a list of all the places your family goes regularly
Determine place or places to gather (likely home) Determine who picks up whom based on locations.
Look for imbalances (if one parent gathers children from 3 different locations, while one goes straight home, is this OK?)
Establish plans for first-to-arrive activities Adjust plans as needed for certain events Have a framework for handling special locations
(vacations, work-related travel, special events)
Establish formal plans
Creating written plans, as either “task lists” or “checklists”, allows for several things
Clarity – everyone knows what to do Memory aid – having a list makes sure steps are
not forgotten or missed Review – having a plan in writing allows for review
and discussion. You and your family can make sure a plan is complete and correct
Reference – you family may know the plan now, but may need a refresher in 6 months
Do not use a format that has too much detail, or that you and your family are not comfortable with!
Plan – framework essentials
Any plan should have its own name and focus on the Six Question Words:
Who – who is involved, by name or by role? When – under what conditions/events does the plan
trigger? What – what specifically needs doing? By whom? How – additional details for 'what', if needed Where – location of action, especially if not home Why – not typically necessary “in the moment”, but
useful to explain during training and review to show the importance of the plan
Plan – a simple example
Plan – Secure Apartment
Who – Bob (Primary), Mary (Secondary)
When – Civil unrest / rioting
What
Primary locks doors and sets up security bracer bar ; Secondary monitors news
Primary retrieves firearms; Secondary fills water-bob Primary and Secondary jointly prepare pepper soakers Begin 6-on 6-off security rotation (Primary first)
How – Have pepper spray pre-mixed and stored near soakers
Where – At home (bug-in). Return to home if external
Plan organization
Keep your printed plans in one place; three-ring binders or file folders. Copies on the computer are your backup, not primary
Keep individual plans simple – instead of “Bug-Out to Grandma's”, make it three separate plans, to execute in order: “Load Car”, “Set Up Nightly Camp”, and “Drive to Grandma's”
Keep plans short – front and back of one page of paper is ideal
Eliminate as many “if” changes from the plans as possible. Make multiple plans, and use the “when” portion to choose between them, to handle variants
Plan – additional details
Do NOT just “write and forget” your plans. Review them periodically
Rehearse your plans wherever possible. This helps you and your family fully understand them, as well as find missing parts and make corrections
Make sure everyone has the training and supplies they need to do their part. Also make sure they have the right mindset for what they are doing
Try not to have only one person capable of certain tasks. “Two is one, and one is none” applies to people as well as gear
Plan considerations – OpSec
“Operational Security” or OpSec is important One one hand, you want your friends, family and
neighbors to also be prepared. On the other hand, if they are not, but know you are, they could become a problem
Planning resources
Basics of planning managementhelp.org/planning/index.htm en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning “The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right”,
by Atul Gawande Preparedness planning
www.ifrc.org/Global/Preplan.pdf foodstoragemadeeasy.net/getting-started/ www.thesurvivalistblog.net/basic-preparedness/
Discussion
Any questions or comments about plans or planning?
NEXT: Resources
Resources
There are two main categories of resources I will cover
Personal resources – personal things you need to have as part of your planning
External resources – things you can use to further your planning and your preparedness activities
Personal resources
As part of your preparedness activities, you need to have easily accessible and portable ...
Important personal papers – passports, birth certificates, marriage licenses, divorce papers, insurance paperwork, adoption papers, property titles, mortgage paperwork, property tax receipts, etc.
Your preparedness plans in a folder or notebook Gear instruction manuals – any piece of equipment
that cannot be used or repaired is not useful Reference works – detailing any skills or providing
key information
External resources: books
Survival books and magazines – as a general rule, books on specific techniques or skills are better than a catch-all book attempting to cover everything
“The Prepper's Pocket Guide” by Bernie Carr If you can get only one book, consider this one
Backwoods Home Magazine “The Backyard Homestead” by Carleen Madigan
My 'Preparedness' wish-list on Amazon has 287 items in it, not including the 200+ items on the 'Homesteading' and 'Firearms and Self-Defence' lists
External resources: websites
Survival websites – great ways to gather information. Use discernment about possible events; do your homework
www.survivalweek.com www.thesurvivalistblog.net www.themodernsurvivalist.com ModernSurvivalOnline.com www.resilientcommunities.com preppercentral.com
If you find a great skill or tip, print it out. The website “printfriendly.com” makes this easy for most web pages
External resources: discussion
Discussion forums – useful for asking questions and similar. Always use discretion when contacted directly by someone
www.survivalistboards.com/index.php www.survivalandpreparednessforum.com/forum.php www.preppergroups.com/
Email Discussion Lists groups.yahoo.com/group/SurvivalCreed groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat
Podcasts www.todayssurvival.com
External resources: people
Your friends and family – getting them on-board before something happens
Workshops and conventions Charlotte PrepCon Heritage Life Skills Self Reliance Expo
If you have a question, ask someone who knows something about it
Need to grow some food? Ask a farmer! You don't have to tell them why you need the info...
Discussion
Any questions or comments about anything in the presentation?