prepare(d) for impact - becquerel prize · wafer-based silicon pv: a personal swot strengths...
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www.ecn.nl
Prepare(d) for impact photovoltaics on its way to terawatt-scale use
Wim Sinke
Contents
• The photovoltaic technology portfolio
- wafer-based silicon in perspective
• Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts
- can wafer-based silicon deliver?
• Outlook
- the benefits of diversity
Contents
• The photovoltaic technology portfolio
- wafer-based silicon in perspective
• Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts
- can wafer-based silicon deliver?
• Outlook
- the benefits of diversity
The many faces of wafer-based silicon PV
Early vision (Bell)
SunPower ECN Imec
Spain (Aesol)
Sanyo
Bolivia
Mali City of the Sun, NL Floriade, NL
Cell & module technologies (flat plate)
Commercial: thin films - silicon
- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)
- cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13% First Solar Helianthos Würth Solar
Pilot production and laboratory:
emerging and novel technologies - super-low-cost concepts
- super-high-efficiency concepts ECN/Holst Centre Amolf
Commercial: wafer-based
crystalline silicon - monocrystalline
- multicrystalline
- ribbons
Module efficiencies 13 ~ 19% Toyota
Cell & module technologies (concentrator)
Commercial: multi-junction III-V
semiconductors
Module efficiencies 25 ~ 30%
Abengoa/Concentrix
(FhG-ISE)
PV technology shares
7 25-10-
2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
Wafers and thin films; flat-plate& concentrator
Concentrator PV; emergingtechnologies
Thin-film CIGS
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film Si
Wafer-based Si
Sources:
- Photon International 03 2011
- Solar Generation 6
- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)
- own estimates
terawatts
installed
gigawatts
installed
megawatts
installed
Contents
• The photovoltaic technology portfolio
- wafer-based silicon in perspective
• Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts
- can wafer-based silicon deliver?
• Outlook
- the benefits of diversity
9
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
10
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
11
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
Threats
12
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
Threats
13
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
• further increase total-area
efficiency
• reduce materials consumption
& use low-cost materials
• implement advanced device
designs & processes
Threats
14
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
• further increase total-area
efficiency
• reduce materials consumption
& use low-cost materials
• implement advanced device
designs & processes
Threats
15
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
• further increase total-area
efficiency
• reduce materials consumption
& use low-cost materials
• implement advanced device
designs & processes
Threats
Selected options
for improvement: • heterojunctions
• rear-contact /rear junction
cell designs
• n-type silicon
• Al2O3 surface passivation
• kerfless wafer cutting
• advanced light trapping
• seeded ingot casting
• high quality solar grade silicon
• Cu replacing Ag
• new encapsulants
• tandems
• more
16
Wafer-based silicon PV: a personal SWOT
Strengths
• high efficiency
• extensive track record
reliability & lifetime
• synergy with micro-
& nanoelectronics industry
Weaknesses (current)
• poorly integrated processing
• significant materials cost
component
• suboptimal aesthetics of some
products
Opportunities
• further increase total-area
efficiency
• reduce materials consumption
& use low-cost materials
• implement advanced device
designs & processes
Threats
• innovations remain in the lab
• cost reduction curve saturates
at too high level (what is
needed for very large scale
use?)
• image of “technology of the
past”
Contents
• The photovoltaic technology portfolio
- wafer-based silicon in perspective
• Meeting expectations: from gigawatts to terawatts
- can wafer-based silicon deliver?
• Outlook
- the benefits of diversity
The benefits of diversity
Evolution of technology portfolio and module
efficiencies (IEA PV Roadmap, 2010)
Crystalline silicon: first generation PV?
Crystalline silicon: first generation PV?
PVSAT-6, Southampton, UK, 25 March 2010 22
Summary
Thank you:
• my colleagues at ECN and at Utrecht University
• the members of the European Photovoltaic Technology
Platform
• the people at EPIA, WIP, Eurec and JRC
• the CrystalClear team
• the Becquerel committee
• the European Commission and the Dutch Ministry of
Economic Affairs
• my family: Ineke, Koen, Pelle and Corijn
• you, the audience
• all other PV advocates around the world
9 March
2010
24
24
©Greenpeace