prepared by the parthenon group for uk education in dubai: what works, london, 2013 x private...
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Prepared By The Parthenon Group For
UK Education in Dubai: What Works, London, 2013
x
Private Education in Dubai:Opportunities for Continued Growth
Parthenon’s Education Practice
On-the-Ground Education Sector Projects Completed by Parthenon
GCC Countries Seek to Increase the Economic Contribution from Non Oil Sectors
$28B $202B $79B $196B $652B $386B
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar SaudiArabia
United ArabEmirates
GDP 2012Estimated
79%
86%
52%
57%55%
68%
43%
65%
49%
60%
69%
74%
2012
2017E
Proportion of Non Oil GDP (Current Prices)
Significant Investment is Required in Education Infrastructure in GCC Countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000
PPP Adjusted GNI per Capita
Tert
iary
En
rollm
en
t R
atio
Bhutan
Tanzania
Pakistan
Myanmar
BangladeshGhanaBurundi
Laos Cape Verde
Uruguay
United States
Ukraine
Switzerland
Sweden
Slovakia
Romania
NorwayNew
Nepal
Mexico
Lithuania
Latvia
Jordan
Italy
Israel
Hungary
Hong Kong (China), SAR
Greece
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Brunei Darussalam
Belgium
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Australia
Armenia
Algeria
Republic of Korea
Portugal
Zealand
NetherlandsIreland
Iceland
Brazil
El Salvador
Tajikistan
Kuwait
BahrainUAE
OmanSaudi Arabia
Tunisia
Lebanon
Morocco
Turkey
Croatia
Chile
Bulgaria
Poland
Austria
Colombia
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Vietnam
Indonesia
Guatemala
China
India
Ethiopia
Uzbekistan
R2 = 70%
Ratio v/s PPP Adjusted GNI Per Capita, 2007
What are the Drivers of Private Education in GCC Countries?
• 55% of the population in UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar is below 30 years old
• GDP per capita for UAE, KSA , Kuwait, Oman and Qatar have grown by 5-10% between in last 5 years
• Premium International and Mixed Curriculum market in UAE is 5X of that in India and similar to China
• Higher Education Enrolment in Western Private Colleges has grown the fastest in last 3 years in UAE
• Private international schools in Riyadh, Jeddah and Sharqiah have grown faster than the market
• Expats account of ~30% of the population in GCC countries and ~80% in the UAE
• The number of expatriates living in GCC countries have increased by nearly 20 per cent over their number in 2005
Specifically, Dubai offers a real opportunity for private education operators
Young Population Increasing AffordabilityNeed for International
EducationGrowing Expat
Community
UAE has the largest market opportunity in K-12 and Higher Education
UAE Singapore Malaysia China
K-12
Market Size of International Private
K-12
$1.9B $0.7B $0.3B $1.7B
Can Locals attend international schools?
Yes No Yes No
Higher Ed
Market Size of TNE $148M $520M $385M --
International Student Growth 6% -11% -4% --
0
25
50
75
100
$125B
2008
$92B
2010
$92B
2012F
$97B
2014F
$104B
2016F
Finance
Business Services
Manufacturing
Wholesaleand Trade
Transport
Other
Govt. Services
Construction
$111B
('08-'12)
3%
CAGR
('12-'16)
4%
CAGR
Non-oil sectors in Dubai have been growing at 3% since 2008
Dubai Market Growth by Sector, 2008-16F
Both Emirati and non-Emirati enrolments are growing in K-12 in Dubai
0
100
200
300
2008
Non-Emirati
Emirati
157K
2009
178K
2010
182K
2011
193K
2012
207K
6%
7%
('08-'12)7%
CAGR
K-12 Dubai Private School Enrolments, 2008- 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Pe
rcen
tOfT
otal
British
School XSchool X
School XSchool X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School XSchool X
School XSchool X
$274M
IB
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
$95M
American
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
$80M
20K 8K 5KTotalEnrolment
Total =$450M
$14K $14K $17KAverage Fee
11% 8% 9%EnrolmentGrowth
2% 3% 3%Fee Growth
The premium market is large and growing Dubai Private Premium K-12 Market Size, By Curriculum, 2012
(Premium Schools > $13K
Parents in Dubai prefer British curriculum schools
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Premium school parents
British
IB
American
100%
Q: Please rank the top preference for type of curriculum for your child?
British/British + IB curriculum is the most in demand amongst parents
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
Real GDPGrowth
6.0%
3.2%
-2.4%
2.4%
1.8% 9.3% 5.1% 3.6%
2001 - 2007 2008 2009 2010
Spread BetweenGDP Growth andEnrollment Growth
Even through the economic turmoil of the recession, K-12 enrolments have continued to grow
Private Non Emirati Enrollment Growth
K-12 Dubai Private Non-Emirati Enrolment Growth and GDP Growth, 2001-2010
KHDA’s pricing mechanism ensure operators and investors of a clear, transparent regulatory system
Regulators determine a baseline index of education costs
% of Schools Receiving Ratings
Baseline Index Of Education Costs
UtilitiesTeacher Costs
Rent
Sample Costs Included in determining baseline index
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Fair
Poor
Excellent
Good
Baseline Index x 3
Baseline Index x 2
Baseline Index
Baseline Index
Approved Price Increase Amount:
Mechanism to regulate price increase if instituted needs to be transparent and should encourage investors and private operators to invest in building quality institutions
Regulators conduct annual quality ratings of
each school
1. Excellent2. Good3. Fair4. Poor
Academic PerformanceAttendance
FacilitiesTeacher QualityRetention Rates
Quality Rating Scale
Sample Rating Factors
1 2School fee increases are allowed based on quality
ratings, and pegged to baseline cost index
3
Before entering Dubai, schools should understand how their offerings fit into the market
• Enrolment No.
• Tuition Fee
• Grades
• Curriculum
Market Size
Define Market & Competition
Define Market & Competition
Competitive BenchmarkingCompetitive
BenchmarkingCatchment Area
AnalysisCatchment Area
Analysis
School Enrolment Potential
School Enrolment Potential
Fee Growth PotentialFuture Enrolment
PotentialCost Improvement
Potential
Key
Considerations
Key
Output
Revenue
Accurate Assessment of Local Supply and Demand Determines success in K-12 Sector
0
20
40
60
80
100%
City A
Target Schoo l
OutsideCity A
School 1
Facilities
School 2
TargetSchool
School 3
TargetSchool
CompetitorSchool
CompetitorSchool
CompetitorSchools
AdjustmentforLocations
• Facilities and
infrastructure
• Parent Satisfaction
• Drive Times to school
and parent preference
• Income distribution of
settlement population
• Expected Share of
Forecast Demand
The TNE market in the UAE is large and growing quickly
• 2012 Revenue: ~US$30M
• 2012 Revenue: ~US$150M
• 2012 Revenue: ~US$105M • 2012 Revenue:
~US$385M
• 2012 Revenue: ~US$40M
• 2012 Revenue: ~US$520M
Revenue CAGR (‘08-’11)
Size of the bubble represents the total revenue of acquirable assets
5-10%
<5%
10-15%
>15%• 2012 Revenue:
~US$148M
Vietnam
UAE
Malaysia
Brazil
India
Indo-nesia
Singapore
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10%
Malaysia
Growth Rate('10-'12)
-11%
Singapore
Growth Rate('10-'12)
-4%
UAE
Growth Rate('10-'12)
6%
The UAE has potential to attract international students to branch campuses
Dubai Singapore Malaysia
Complexity of Regulations
Time Required to Obtain Approvals
3-6 months 9-12 months 24-30 months
Foreign Ownership
Types of Offerings Allowed
Approval Body
Ease of Entry
Attractive Unattractive
Dubai offers the most favourable regulations for setting up an institution
The most successful universities offer employability related courses
Engineering
Business/Mgmt
ComputerScience
OtherHealth Science
100%
~70-80%
Private Western
Placement rate of 70-80% compared with other
institutes at ~50%
Foreign branch campuses can improve their appeal by offering transfers to the home campus
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Students have the option of completing a part of the
program at Heriot-Watt campus in Edinburgh
If the student completes final year in India or UK, a UK
degree is awarded
Students at other private western universities can
articulate only after year 3
Herriot-Watt
University of Wollongong in Dubai
Middlesex University
Canadian University of Dubai
Private Western
Public UniversitiesPublic
ArticulationOption
A transfer to a Western home campus improves a student’s job prospects both at home and abroad
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Super Premium (>$9K)
School XSchool X
School X
SchoolXSchoolX
School XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School X
School X
School X
School X
School X
Premium ($7-9K)
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool X
School X
School X
SchoolXSchoolXSchoolXSchoolXSchoolXSchoolXSchoolX
School XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School X
School X
Medium($4-7K)
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool X
School X
School XSchool X
School X
School X
Low(<$4K)
School XSchool XSchool X
School X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool X
School XSchool XSchool X
School X
School X
School X
School X
26 45 45 27Number of Nurseries
3.0K 5.2K 4.0K 2.4KTotal Enrolment
$10.2K $8.2K $6.5K $3.4KAverage Fee
21% 35% 22% 16%Revenue CAGR
Total =$108M
The early years market is small and fragmented…
Market Size of Dubai Independent Private Nurseries, By School, By Price Point, 2013
But all segments are growing quickly
0
5
10
15
2010
Super Premium
Premium
Medium
Low
8.7K
2013
Super Premium
Premium
Medium
Low
14.7K
10%
17%
29%
17%
87 143Number ofNurseries
10%
17%
29%
17%
87 143Number ofNurseries
2010-13
19%
CAGR
2010-13
19%
CAGR
Enrolment in Independent Private Nurseries in Dubai, By Price Point, 2010 and 2013
EYFS is the most popular curriculum option – the source of most incremental enrolment growth
0
5
10
15
2010
Other
International
Montessori
EYFS
8.7K
EYFSIncremental
EYFS
4.5K
MontesorriIncremental
Montessori
0.4K
InternationalIncremental
International
0.4K
Other*Incremental
Other
0.7K
2013
Other
International
Montessori
EYFS
14.7K
23%
10%
14%
15%
CAGR
87 37 2 2 15 143Number ofNurseries
23%
10%
14%
15%
CAGR
87 37 2 2 15 143Number ofNurseries
2010-1319%
2010-1319%
Enrolment in Independent Private Nurseries in Dubai, By Curriculum, 2010-13
Parents want English as the language of instruction, even in early years
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Expats Preferred Language
English
BilingualArabic
Emirati's preferred Language
English
Bilingual
Arabic
Q: What is your preferred language of instruction for your child?
UK Education in Dubai: Opportunities Across Sectors
K-12 Higher Education Early Years
• Robust market characterized by strong demand for British curriculum
• Dual demand for British and local curriculum from Emiratis and expats
• Clearly defined licensing and regulatory system
• Significant opportunities for TNE/foreign branch campuses
• Scope for international student growth
• Supportive regulatory environment
• Nascent market with strong growth in enrolment
• Preference for EYFS and English medium
• Regulatory environment required to support growth