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TO OBSERVE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FOR A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

2

Presentation at the SPARC SSG meeting by Michaela I. Hegglin (University of Toronto, Canada) on behalf of:

PREMIER Mission Advisory Group (MAG):

• Michaela Hegglin University of Toronto, Canada

• Brian Kerridge Rutherford-Appleton Lab, UK

• Jack McConnell York University, Canada

• Donal Murtagh Chalmers University, Sweden

• Johannes Orphal KIT, Germany

• Vincent-Henri Peuch Meteo-France, France

• Martin Riese FZJ, Germany

• Michiel van Weele KNMI, Netherlands

ESA Science Coordinator: Jörg LangenESA Technical Coordinator: Bernardo Carnicero-Dominguez

Science Team

Candidate ESA Explorer Mission PREMIER

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Operational Service drivenResearch driven

Earth Explorer Earth Watch

Core Missions

Opportunity Missions Meteorology

w. EumetsatGMES

MeteosatMSGEPS (MetOp)MTGPost EPS

Sentinel 1GOCELaunched17/3/09

EarthCARE2013

ADM-Aeolus2011

CryoSat 22010

SMOS2009

Swarm2010

Sentinel 2Sentinel 3Sentinel 4Sentinel 5

www.esa.int/livingplanetEE 72016?

ESA’s Living Planet Programme

?EE 82017

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Call for Ideas

ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection

March - July 2005 May 2006

User Consultation Meeting

Mission Assessment Groups / Phase 0

Reports for Assessment

ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection

Step 2:

Mission Assessment

(Phase 0)

Spring 2007 - 2008

Autumn 2008

20-21 January 2009

February 2009

ImplementationStep 4:

Implementation

(Phases B1, B2, C/D, E1)

24

6

Mission Advisory Groups / Phase A

Reports for Mission Selection

User Consultation Meeting

ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection

Step 3:

Mission Feasibility

(Phase A)

2009-2010

3

BIOMASSCoReH2O

PREMIER

7th Earth Explorer Mission: Steps to Launch

2011

2012-20161

Step 1:

Call and selection

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Scientific justification

Atmospheric composition changes are driving climate change

• Direct radiative forcing by trace gases & aerosol• Indirect effects through chemistry and aerosol-cloud interactions • Feedbacks via water vapour, cloud & trace gases

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

UTLS transport

The distribution of the radiatively active species O3 and H2O is determined by

transport and dehydration processes on multiple time and length scales.

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Radiative impact of composition changes

• Changes in the UTLS have a large impact on surface temperature.• Region of particular sensitivity is between 500-50 hPa.• Depends on opacity and thermal structure.

Surface temperature sensitivity / unit mass change [relative scale]

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)

Ozone Water vapour

Tropopause

24 km

~6 km

MethaneP. Forster, RAF 2008

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

• To investigate processes controlling global atmospheric composition in the mid/upper troposphere and lower stratosphere; a complex region of particular importance for climate.

by resolving 3-D structures of trace gases, thin cirrus and temperature in this region on finer scales than has previously been possible from space

• To study links with surface emissions and pollution.

by exploiting synergies with nadir-sounders on EPS-MetOp

Mission objectives:

PREMIER = PRocess Exploration through Measurements of Infrared and millimetre-wave Emitted Radiation

PREMIER will quantify:

A. Relationship between atmospheric composition and climate. B. Atmospheric transport processes important to climate and air quality. C. Relationship between atmospheric dynamics and climate.

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Limb-emission sounding

• High res. vertical profiling• Tenuous trace gases

detectable• Day- and nighttime

observations • Dense coverage cf solar

occultation

Nadir-sounding

• Near-surface layer seen between clouds but

• Little or no vertical resolution

Observation technique

EPS MetOp

PREMIER

Innovation: PREMIER provides horizontal sampling comparable to a nadir sounder!

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

mm-Wave Limb-Sounder (MWLS / STEAMR)

• Heterodyne multibeam receiver, 1.5-2 km sampling• 310-360 GHz• similar to instrument on Odin, but optimized for UT

IR Limb-Sounder (IRLS) incl. cloud-imager

• Imaging Fourier spectrometer, MIPAS-like • 770 – 1650 cm-1

• spectral sampling 0.2 / 1.25 / 10 cm-1

• vertical sampling 2.0 / 0.5 / 0.5 km

Orbit:

• sun-synchronous, 817 km, LTDN 9.30h• 8 min ahead of MetOp to provide link to lower troposphere

Measured species:

• T, H2O, O3, CH4, PAN, CFC-11, CO, C2H6, HNO3, cirrus clouds

PREMIER satellite instruments

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Synergies between IRLS and MWLS (in sounding the troposphere)

IR – 12m mm-wave

Pro

babi

lity

[%] o

f tr

ansm

ittan

ce >

55%

-50 0 50Latitude / oN

-50 0 50Latitude / oN

• IRLS / MWLS observations to low altitudes controlled by clouds / water vapour.• Higher probability for IRLS / MWLS to propagate down in the extra-tropics / tropics.

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

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Typhoon

PREMIERIRLS dynamics

MIPAS

Observational requirements

• Altitude range: 5 - 55 km with global coverage.• Minimum of a 4-year mission period. • Near real-time observations of multiple trace gases (and clouds) at high 3D-resolution.

Typhoon Winnie (20/08/97)

Modes:

Dynamics:0.5 km x 25 km x 50 km

Chemistry: 2.0 km x 80 km x 100 km

Clouds : 0.5 km x 4 km x 8 km

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Convective uplift in the Indian monsoon

• Biogenic emissions from Bangladesh wetlands are lofted into the region important to climate by convection in monsoon circulation

• Structure in the 3-D distribution can affect methane global radiative forcing

18 km

0 km

GEMS CH4 – Aug to Oct 2003

Height of 1.9 ppmv

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Retrieval Simulations for PREMIER IRLS and IASI

• PREMIER captures the structure of the plume in the UTLS. • IASI extends coverage into the lower troposphere i.e. below the limb-range.

GEMS

IASI IRLS+IASI

IRLS

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Retrieval simulations for PREMIER

CH3OH – Model

CH3OH – IRLS

CO – Model

HCN – MWLS

HCN – Model

CO – MWLS

Plumes over Atlantic from S.Americanbiomass-burning

Plume seenwell by IRLS

Plume seen well by MWLS

• PREMIER will observe ozone precursors (eg CO & CH3OH) & indicators of biomass burning (e.g. HCN) in individual plumes from tropical burning, boreal forest fires and industrial emissions.

• PREMIER will allow us to study long-range transport of such pollution plumes.

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

• Across-track sampling by PREMIER IRLS (dynamics mode) will add the 3rd dimension– Wavelength & propagation direction will be determined unambiguously for the first time → Major advance on COSMIC & HiRDLS in quantifying gravity wave vertical momentum fluxes and their parameterisation in climate models

Locations of COSMIC Profilesfor whole day

Wave vector

Gravity waves initiated by flow over Mountains in South America

Longitude (deg)Longitude (deg)

La

titu

de

(d

eg

)

Alti

tud

e (

km)

3-D temperature structure produced by gravity waves(Retrieval simulation for PREMIER IRLS)

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

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International context

• No other mission with capabilities comparable to PREMIER will be launched for at least another decade. Missions under discussion are:

– NASA/CSA: CASS– CSA: STEP– ALTIUS (Belgian mission) – NASA: GACM– NASA: ALICE

• In addition to meeting its research objectives, PREMIER will

– complement nadir observations from operational satellites

– meet global height-resolved monitoring requirements (which will otherwise not be met) for GCOS, WMO/IGACO, GEOSS/CEOS ACC, GMES

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

Summary and statusFor the first time, 3D-distributions of various atmospheric variables will be observed from space in the height range most important to climate.

The high resolution observations will allow a better quantification and characterization of the complex dynamical and chemical processes in the UTLS.

PREMIER will help to establish a comprehensive data base for model validation and development. Particularly important in the light of:

•The integration of tropospheric and the stratospheric models.•Increased resolution of CCMs and CTMs within the next few years.•Implementation of cloud resolving models.•Therefore useful for SPARC/IGAC (CCMVal, AC&C, Gravity-wave initiative)

PREMIER will contribute to global height-resolved monitoring and operational applications in mission time-frame (feeds into WMO/UNEP, IPCC & WCRP).

Development schedule is compatible with launch during 2016 as Earth Explorer 7 (PREMIER assessment report).

Selection of one of the candidate missions for implementation by ESA in early 2011 (after user consultation meeting in late 2010).

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SPARC SSG meeting JAPAN M. I. Hegglin, University of Toronto Nov 2009

• The vertical distribution of ozone is expected to change strongly due to climate change.

• The stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the NH is predicted to increase substantially

• In the SH, the signal is dominated by ozone depletion and recovery

CMAM simulations from Hegglin & Shepherd (Nature Geosci., 2009)

O3