preliminary wrap haze modeling results
DESCRIPTION
Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results. Lee Alter Western Governors’ Association January 10, 2005 Tucson, AZ. Caveats. Results are preliminary Became available last week Minor emission errors identified Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions Further QA planned - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results
Lee Alter
Western Governors’ Association
January 10, 2005
Tucson, AZ
Caveats
• Results are preliminary– Became available last week– Minor emission errors identified– Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions– Further QA planned
• The following emissions are held constant– Sources outside the U.S.– CA nonroad sources and ocean-going vessels– Biogenics, wb dust, and smoke (Wx, Rx, ag)
Caveats
• Emission changes limitted to known / certain controls on stationary, area, and land-based mobile sources. In WRAP region, this equates to annual change of:
- 51,000 tons of SO2 (-5%)
- 1,040,000 tons of NOx (-28%)
635,000 tons of PM10 (31%)
424,000 tons of VOC (14%)[Results include AK, but do not include expected increases in OGVs and expected decreases in CA nonroad.]
Caveats
• Each Class I area projection based on modeled differences during ~22 days in 2002
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSan Gorgonio Wilderness - 20% Worst Days
21.5420.58
18.17
15.77
13.36
10.95
8.547.10
19.91
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSaguaro NM - 20% Worst Days
14.87 14.3413.00
11.6610.32
8.987.64
6.84
14.41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064
Year
Ha
zin
ess
In
de
x (D
eci
vie
ws)
Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BR
CA
1
CA
NY
1
GR
CA
2
ME
VE
1
SA
PE
1
WE
MI1
ZIO
N1
BA
ND
1
BO
AP
1
CH
IR1
GIC
L1
GR
SA
1
IKB
A1
SA
CR
1
SA
GU
1
SIA
N1
WH
IT1
WH
PE
1
Pe
rcen
t o
f D
eci
view
s A
ch
ieve
d
Colorado Plateau Desert Southwest
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BA
DL1
CA
BI1
GA
MO
1
LOS
T1
ME
LA1
MO
NT
1
SU
LA1
TH
RO
1
UL
BE
1
WIC
A1
CR
MO
1
JAR
B1
SA
WT
1
BR
ID1
NO
AB
1
RO
MO
1
WH
RI1
YE
LL2
Pe
rcen
t o
f D
eci
view
s A
ch
ieve
d
North Great Basin Rockies
Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%H
EC
A1
KA
LM1
MO
HO
1
MO
RA
1
NO
CA
1
OLY
M1
PA
SA
1
SN
PA
1
ST
AR
1
TH
SI1
WH
PA
1
AG
TI1
BLI
S1
DO
ME
1
HO
OV
1
JOS
H1
LAV
O1
PIN
N1
RE
DW
1
SA
GA
1
SA
GO
1
YO
SE
1
Per
cen
t o
f D
eciv
iew
s A
chie
ved
Pacific Northwest California
See Spreadsheet Handout for Class I Area Resultsfor 20% Worst Days