preliminary results 2018/19 · •in 2019/20 results including and excluding ifrs 16 will be...
TRANSCRIPT
PRELIMINARY
RESULTS
2018/19
20 June 2019
Q&A
Alex Baldock & Jonny Mason
CEO UPDATE
Alex Baldock
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OVERVIEW
AND FINANCIAL GUIDANCE
Jonny Mason
Today’s agenda
2
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OVERVIEW
& FINANCIAL GUIDANCE
Jonny MasonGroup Chief Financial Officer
3
FY 2018/19 YoY
Revenue £10,433m -1%
EBIT £322m £(78)m
EBIT % 3.1% (70)bps
PBT £298m £(84)m
Non-headline* £(545)m £(466)m
Free cash flow £153m £(19)m
EPS 20.4p (5.8)p
Net debt £(265)m £(16)m
Final proposed Dividend 4.50p (3.25)p
4* Total non-headline before interest and tax, includes £387m of non-cash items
Group financial highlights FY 2018/19
LFL Revenue Sales EBIT
Peak*
FY 2018/19
Post Peak*
FY 2018/19H2 2018/19 FY 2018/19 FY 2018/19 FY 2018/19 YoY
UK&I
electricals2% -% 1% 1% £4,475m £180m £(51)m
UK&I mobile (7)% (8)% (8)% (4)% £1,998m £9m £(34)m
International 5% 3% 4% 4% £3,960m £133m £7m
Group 1% (1)% -% 1% £10,433m £322m £(78)m
5
Divisional financial highlights FY 2018/19
*Peak refers to the 10 week trading period ending on 5 January 2019 as reported in the Group’s Christmas Trading statement on 22 January 2019. Post peak refers to the trading period
from 6th January 2019 to the Group’s year-end on 27 April 2019
FY 2018/19 YoY
Revenue £4,475m 1%
EBIT £180m £(51)m
EBIT % 4.0% (120)bps
• Overall flat market with share gains in consumer electronics and computing
• EBIT lower year-on-year due to:
➢ One-off credits in the prior year
➢ Lower services margin from mix to online and transition to new service
propositions
H2 2018/19 LFL
1%
6
UK & Ireland electricals
FY 2018/19 YoY
Revenue £1,998m (11)%
EBIT £9m £(34)m
EBIT % 0.5% (140)bps
• Postpay market* down ~2% reflecting growth in 36 month contracts, impacting
overall market share in postpay, partially mitigated by growth in SIMO
• EBIT impacted by revaluation of debtors £(47)m, mostly from regulatory changes
impacting customer behaviour
H2 2018/19 LFL
(8)%
7
UK & Ireland mobile
* Excludes Postpay contract > 24ms
FY 2018/19 YoY
Revenue £3,960m 2%
EBIT £133m £7m
EBIT % 3.4% 10bps
H2 2018/19 LFL
4%
8
International
• Market share gains in Nordics and Greece
• Like-for-like sales up 3% in Nordics and 13% in Greece
• Further EBIT margin progression
£m P&L Non-cash Cash
(in year)
Cash
(future)
Acquisition and disposal related (23) (23) - -
Strategic change programme (67) - (31) (36)
Data Incident costs (20) (2) (12) (6)
Regulatory costs (52) (15) (23) (14)
Impairment and onerous leases (383) (347) (2) (34)
Total before interest and tax (545) (387) (68) (90)
9
Non-headline before interest & tax
10
£m FY 2018/19 Prior Year
Op. net debt (249) (271)
Free cash flow 153 172
Dividend (116) (130)
Acquisitions/disposals (1) 24
Pension (46) (46)
Other2 (6) 2
Cl. net debt (265) (249)
Free cash flow and net debt
400 160 (80) (173) (63) (25) - 219 (47) 172
(78) (14) 104 7 18 (5) 9 41 (60) (19)
Prior Yr
YoY
1 Restructuring of £107m includes £68m from FY 18/19 provisions and £39m from prior years
2 Other relates to FX
1
322
260
153
146
24
9
166
45
30
107
Headline
EBIT
Dep. &
amort.
Working
capital Capex Taxation Interest Other
FCF
before
Excep. Excep.
Free
Cash
Flow
11
Financial guidance
12
Financial guidance for 2019/20
* Target to be covered by Free Cash Flow minus pension contributions
All of this guidance is based on assumptions of no major macro economic changes, for example no material impact
from Brexit, and the profit numbers also exclude any significant revaluation in network debtors, up or down, which
might arise from changes in regulatory environment or for other reasons. It is also based on current accounting
UK Mobile
expect loss of up to £90m
Exceptional cash cost of
c£80mCapex of ~£275m
Dividend broadly flat*
UK&I Electricals &
International
growth low single digit
Net debt broadly flat
Group Headline PBT expected to be around £210m
13
IFRS 16
• All numbers in the presentation are pre IFRS 16
• IFRS 16 numbers will be announced from interims
• In 2019/20 results including and excluding IFRS 16 will be reported
• Expected recognition of lease liability in the region of £1.5bn
• Cash flows will not be impacted
• Statutory profit will not be impacted over the life of a lease. Negative impact in
earlier years and positive in later years
Market share gains1
• Positive like-for-like revenue growth
Improving profitability
• EBIT margin of at least 3.5%
• £200m cost savings identified
Strong cash flow
• Incremental capex of £200m
• Funded by working capital
14
Financial targets for medium term
1 Excludes UK mobile during transformation2 Free cash flow including incremental capex and exceptional charges but before dividends and pension
contributions
£1bn of free
cash flow
over 5 years2
1
2
3
4
Invest to grow core business
Pay and grow the ordinary dividend
and fund the pension deficit
Strategic investments to enhance core
Any surplus available to shareholders
15
Prudent balance sheet
Capital allocation
CEO UPDATE
Alex BaldockGroup Chief Executive
16
Preliminary FY19 Results - Group
£10,433m
Sales
£322m
EBIT
£298m
PBT
1%
LFL Growth FCF
£153m
17
We are the
clear market leader
Sources: GfK. DC internal analysis and supplier data. Nordics data unavailable on same basis for 2014/15
UK&I electricals UK&I mobile
Nordics Greece
2015/162014/15 2016/17 2018/192017/18 2017/182015/162014/15 2016/17 2018/19
21.1%24.2% 25.0% 25.5%
2018/192015/162014/15 2016/17 2017/18 2018/192015/162014/15 2016/17 2017/18
20.6%24.6% 23.8% 21.9% 18.9%
26.3% 28.7% 32.2% 34.4% 35.0%
Market share
23.0% 24.7% 25.6% 25.7% 26.0%
18
• UK & International electrical sales and profit progress
• Strong free cash flow
• Dividend to be maintained
• UK Mobile:• Market changing fast• Significant loss this year• Certainty this year is the bottom; profit growth
FY21• Legacy contractual and cost constraints lift next
year• Cash generation strong
Outlook for FY20
19
Previous Long Term Guidance
Market share gains
• Positive like-for-like revenue growth
Improving profitability
• EBIT margin of at least 3.5%
• £200m cost savings identified
Strong cash flow
• Incremental capex of £200m
• Funded by working capital
£1bn of free
cash flow1
1 Free cash flow including incremental capex and exceptional charges but before dividends and
pension contributions 20
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
> FCF £1BN
≥ 3.5% EBIT
£200M COST
SAVINGSGROUP
MOBILETROUGH
YEARREDUCED
LOSSES≥ BREAKEVEN
1 Free cash flow including incremental capex and exceptional charges but before dividends and pension contributions
Now: commit to earlier delivery of cost savings and margin
UPSIDE
21
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
We have an easy
end to end
customer
experience
We are with our
customers
throughout the life
of the product –
via our Services
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to our vision
22
UK ELECTRICALS
UK MOBILE
Customers beginning to notice
STORES ONLINE
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
+7pps+4pps
+6pps+8pps
NPS
Note: NPS is now measured in a more demanding way, 7 day NPS encompasses the end to end customer sales journey from research to
purchase and fulfilment
23
24
Mobile is central to our
vision
We are affordable:
trusted on price and
through credit
We serve our customers
however they want to
shop: online or in store
We have an easy end to
end customer experience
We help customers get
the most out of their tech
Online Easy / Services MobileCredit
Priorities
Enablers
Good early progress on Strategy
Capable &
committed
colleaguesOne Business
Stronger
infrastructure
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We have an easyend to end customer
experience
We are with our customers
throughout the life of the product –via our Services
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to our vision
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
25
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
Credit CustomersCredit Adoption
(% of Sales)
FY18FY18 FY19FY19
+150bpsto over 9%
+50%to over 900k
Credit: We have made good early progress
Credit Sales
+20%to over £420m
FY18 FY19
26
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Good for Customers
✓ Afford new and better
technology
✓ 20pts higher NPS
27
Good for Us
✓ Whole Group
✓ Reason to shop with us
✓ x3 lifetime value
✓ 45% higher services
adoption
✓ Recurring cashflow
Good for Suppliers
✓ Incremental volume
✓ Trade up
Credit: big profitable growth opportunity
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Good for Customers Good for Us Good for Suppliers
We expect customer
adoption of credit to
grow to least 16% of
revenues over the life
of our plan
Plan for FY20
Better capabilities
Better partnerships
Better offer and customer
experience
Responsible lender
28
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We have an easyend to end customer
experience
We are with our customers
throughout the life of the product –via our Services
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to our vision
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
29
UK electricals
International
21.1%
28.2%
10.4%
15.5%
+510bps
15/16 18/19
Online: big profitable growth opportunity
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
15/16 18/19
+710bps
FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
UK Electricals Market Share
StoresOnline
+30bps +50bps
Source (Market Share): GfK Market Data, DC Internal
Source (Online SOB): Dixons Carphone Group online revenues including order and collect as a % of mobile and electrical revenues
Online Share of Business
30
31
Accelerating growth online
Larger
range
Increase
personalisationContact Centres
Supply ChainLess
friction
Easier to find Easier to buy Easier to get Smartphone first
Smartphone first
development
Services
Crossover benefits
Credit
FY
20
+ 5k SKUs
Search
Recommendation
Checkout
Site Speed
Transactional App
Exciting stores Click & collect
32
Towards true omnichannel retail
C&C share of online sales+2pps
(37%)Gaming
Market Share+3pps +45%Gaming
Sales
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to our vision
We have an easy
end to end
customer
experience
We are with our
customers
throughout the life
of the product –
via our Services
33
Right First Time Delivery Call Answer Rate1
+20pps+2.5pps
34
Right First Time Contact
Resolution2
+22%
1 UK Electronics Customer Service answer rates over 18 week peak period2 Based on pilot results
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Trade-in& upgrade
Set up&
connectivityProtect Maintain Repair
Helping customers get the most out of their Tech…
…and we are making good progress35
Shortening product
replacement cycles
>300k laptop set-ups
Bundles
Electricals and mobile
Maintenance
Health checks
Insurance
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Protect
36
Good for Customers Good for Us
✓ Unique assets (10m warranty customers)
✓ Stickier and more valuable customers
✓ Annuity stream
✓ 69% want
protection
Underway to make protection products big and sustainable for us
Building market-leading, customer-friendly protection products
Protection Service Feature CPCWCompetitor A Competitor B
Competitor C Competitor DProduct 1 Product 2 Product 1 Product 2
Insurance/Service Service Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Insurance Service
Length of Term 2yr, 3yr, 4yr 2yr, 3yr, 4yr Monthly 3yr 2yr, 5yr Monthly 2yr, 3yr, 4yr
Breakdown Cover ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Accidental Damage/Mishap Cover ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
No fault no charge ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
No excess ✓ ✓Excess on phones
>£149.99✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Unlimited Repairs ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Fix or Replace ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Monthly Payment Option ✓ ✓ ✓
Term Option ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
24/7 Help & Support ✓
New for Old ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Repair Promise ✓
7 days
✓
14 days
✓
6 weeks
Valet Service ✓
Whites
Virus Removal ✓
Data Recovery ✓
Repair Guarantee ✓
4th breakdown (manufacturer guarantee
only)
Loss/Theft Mobiles only
Worldwide Cover ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
30 days
Accessories ✓
Transferable ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
37
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Source: Dixons Carphone internal data - Currys PC World CSAT based on purchases for FY18/19
Customer Satisfaction has improved at every stage
CSAT
Purchase in store Purchase online Collect Delivery Install / Setup
FY18 FY19
+7pps
+4pps+10pps
+8pps
+12pps
Online Easy/Services MobileCreditCapable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
38
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
We have an easyend to end customer
experience
We are with our customers
throughout the life of the product –via our Services
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to our vision
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
39
Capable & committed colleagues
✓ 5500 colleague tablets
✓ Colleague Shareholder
Scheme
✓ Last year: 25% increase in
colleague training
✓ This year: 400% increase in
colleague training
✓ 4000 headsets
+15% CSAT
for customers assisted by
colleague with tablet
✓ Needs based selling
✓ Freedom in a Framework
management
Fundamental change to how
we sell and manage
40
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
41
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Accelerating delivery of planned savings of £200m by FY22
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
Single IT platform project underway
Stronger infrastructure: consistently meeting our
delivery promises, faster product set-up, lower cost to operate and standard processes
Easy E2E experiences for customers: full range
on all channels, for collection or delivery, with the right marketing messages, at the right time
Truly joined up business: one way of working
supported by a single set of systems, with a single view of customer and product data
Improvements in FY19
✓ Better kit for frontline colleagues
✓ Stockless technology extending the range
✓ Enabling more trust in pricing through Revionics tool
✓ Improved product availability through improved planning
and forecasting systems
✓ Significantly improved our security, having increased
spend on InfoSec by four times
✓ Improved routing efficiency and customer visibility of
2-man deliveries
42
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
✓ Share growth, profits on good trajectory
✓ Record customer satisfaction and colleague engagement
✓ Further upside from group strategy:
• Nordic EBIT margin: 3.2% to ≥3.5% by FY22
• Credit, Online & Services
• Group Synergies
✓Record Investment
43
Group strategy will sustain International trajectory
Capable and
committed
colleagues
We work together
as One Business
Stronger
infrastructure
We offer amazing
advice to our
customers through
assisted selling
We understand
technology and
our customers;
data
We are big – we
have something for
everyone; range
We are affordable:
trusted on price
and through credit
We serve our
customers however
they want to shop:
online or in store
We have an easyend to end customer
experience
We are with our customers
throughout the life of the product –via our Services
Our sites and stores
are amazing
Our partnerships
with suppliers make
a big difference
Mobile is central to
our vision
44
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
• Challenges as stated in December
• Market changing faster; responding faster
• Loss this year
• Certainty this is the bottom
• Profits to improve from FY21
• Mobile at least breakeven, FY22
• Upside: new offer
• Strengthening FCF
Mobile: summary
45
PROTECT VS DOWNSIDE
PURSUE UPSIDE
CONSTRAINTS LIFTED FY21
Legacy contracts
Costs
WE CAN
BECAUSE
46
3 key challenges to overcome
62% 56% 51% 44% 40% 36%
38% 44% 49%52% 51% 51%
4% 9% 12%
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
24m NS SIMO NS >24m NS
20.6%24.6% 23.8% 21.9%
18.9%
17/1815/1614/15 16/17 18/19
Market Share Profitability
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Sources: GfK & DC Internal
• Volumes
• Mix• Mix
• Mix
• Contractual
• Costs
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
Traditional postpay market
declining
Mix driven declining DC market
shareMobile profitability declining
47
Renegotiated all legacy network contracts
47
Lower volume commitments• Better terms, without extending tenure
• c£60m positive EBIT impact, FY20
• But: still constraining
Better choice of SIMO connectivity • Wider choice of networks (e.g. Virgin)
• Better SIMO offers• Better security of supply (iD now competitive)
Still constrained until FY21
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
Handsets Connectivity Ways to pay Accessories Services
Credit-based bundles in FY20
Unconstrained during FY21
48
Radically improving our mobile offer
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
49
One Business: accelerating cost
reduction
£200m of savings by FY22
c£100M of
savings in
Mobile
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit
Alternative options considered
Capable & committed colleagues
Stronger Infrastructure
OneBusiness
?
50
✓ Faster to new
✓ New offer
✓ Lower cost model
✓ Ready for FY21: unconstrained
Certainty FY20 is the bottom✓Open Ended Losses
Old separate model
✓ Smaller decline in FY20 profits
✓ Tactical credit bundles
✓Prohibitive exit costs today
✓Reduce
c£100m costs✓
Free Cash
Flow✓
Shareholder
value
Mobile
offer✓
Online Easy/Services MobileCredit