preliminary results 2015 23 september 2015 · this presentation contains forward- looking...
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Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015
Forward-Looking Statements
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements have been made by the Directors in good faith based on the information available to them up to the time of the preparation of this presentation. Due to the inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors underlying such forward-looking information, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The Directors undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Table of Contents
Our Business …. ……............................................................................................. 04
2015 Highlights ……............................................................................................. 07
Agri-Services Trading Review ................................................................................ 10
Financial Review ……........................................................................................... 15
Central and Eastern Europe (‘CEE’) – Development .............................................. 23
Strategic Priorities and 2016 Focus Points …......................................................... 30
Summary and Outlook …….................................................................................. 33
Appendix ………………..…….................................................................................. 36 3
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Our Business
Our Business
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Premier provider of agronomy services, inputs and crop technologies
Market leading positions in Ireland, UK, Poland, Ukraine and Romania *
Focus on delivery of customised crop management systems
– Addressing efficiency, quality and output requirements of primary producers
– Maximising value-add through technology transfer on farm
• Integrating advice with input prescriptions
• Influencing on-farm decision making and product specification
* The acquisition of Redoxim completed on 17 September 2015 subsequent to the year end.
Revenue Geography* Customer Channel* Application* Services Operating
Profit
€1.46bn
Agronomy
€78.9m
Crop and variety selection
Cultivation systems
Nutrition management
Decision support and precision applications Soil health and field inspections Origination, traceability, logistics and handling Prescription input formulation
Environmental stewardship
Agri-Services 2015 Overview
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Crop Marketing / Feed / Other 12%
Amenity 7% Roots & Veg 4%
Grassland 22%
Combinable Crops 55%
Direct Farm (Integrated Agronomy
& Services) 53%
Business-to-business
(Agri-Inputs) 47%
Eastern Europe 22%
UK 67%
Ireland 11%
Customisation Risk management and supply chain
Optimising crop productivity through on-farm knowledge transfer and integrated technology packages
Total crop management systems
* Geography and Customer Channel breakdowns are based on actual reported revenues and operating profits, respectively. Application percentage breakdowns are based on operating profit best estimates using internal information and are approximate.
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2015 Highlights
Full year result in line with guidance
Resilient performance from Agri-Services in challenging market conditions – Bearish crop cycle and reduced seasonal intensity resulting in lower market demand for services and inputs
– Value added applications supporting performance
Robust cash generation during the year
5% increase in full year annual dividend to 21.0c
2015 Financial Highlights 3.3% underlying reduction in Agri-Services operating profit
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Net Cash Adjusted EPS
60.10c +4.5%
Group Operating
Margin
5.4% -20bps
Agri-Services Operating
Profit
€78.9m -0.8%
Group Revenue
€1.46bn +3.0% €88.8m*
ROCE**
20.5%
Proposed Annual
Dividend
21.0c +5%
* Includes restricted cash of €29.4m ** Capital employed metric used in this calculation is based on average working capital for the Group
2015 Development Highlights Scale expansion of Agri-Services in Eastern Europe
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* Acquisition completed on 17 September 2015 ** Agreement announced post year end on 18 August 2015
Capital re-allocation supporting Eastern European development
Divestment of interest in Valeo Foods
Romanian Agri-Services expansion
– Agreement reached to acquire Redoxim SRL* and Comfert SRL
Polish Agri-Services expansion**
– Agreement reached to acquire Kazgod Group
€86.6m
(€76.8m)
(€54.4m)
(€22.4m)
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Agri-Services Trading Review
2015 Market Overview
Highly challenging farming backdrop Record global supply impacting primary output markets
Price and currency volatility exerting pressure on incomes and cash flow of primary producers
Limited near term visibility on new output price direction before mid calendar year 2016
Heightened competitive intensity in consumption markets
Agri-service providers’ counter strategies Service portfolios positioned to meet farmers' requirements for flexible production systems
Tailored financing solutions supporting growers' investment decisions
Continued development of integrated technology platform delivering value added solutions
Cost improvement programmes aligned with current market backdrop 11
Integrated On-Farm Agronomy Review United Kingdom
Resilient performance in year against backdrop of lower demand – Combined winter and spring plantings down 1.2% on 2014 levels – Reduced service and input investment by growers in Q4 – Highly competitive trading conditions across input portfolios
Repositioned service offer and cost improvement positively influencing performance – Further agronomisation of product portfolios supporting improved sales margins – Knowledge transfer focused on soil science application and total disease management – High output variety management
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UK | Agrii
Integrated On-Farm Agronomy Review Central and Eastern Europe
Good trading performance with higher margins and profits
– Sustained demand in year due to early spring season and favourable cropping profile
– Integrated product offers supporting margin improvement
– Lower crop marketing volumes
Reorganisation and a differentiated channel focus contributing to business performance
– Deeper client engagement through expanded service provision
– Focus on yield performance per hectare aligned with increasing farming professionalisation
Poland | Dalgety
Strong result with higher revenues and profits – Favourable sales and customer development with offers
promoting technology intensification – Farm sentiment influenced by currency weakness and liquidity – Lower underlying input and service spend with farmers
adopting cheaper investment alternatives
Prioritising of risk focus against uncertain political and economic backdrop – Rigorous currency and credit risk management – Input financing solutions through strong partner programmes
Development – Crop technology centres facilitating established knowledge
transfer platform – Service extension with precision agronomy and satellite
monitoring applications
Ukraine | Agroscope
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B2B Agri-Inputs Review
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Fertiliser Stable volume performance underpinning satisfactory result in year – Strong supply chain execution supporting higher
volumes in UK against lower total market demand – Reduced application in UK livestock sector – Bespoke and specialist nutrition applications maintain
solid momentum Amenity
Good full year performance – Growth in professional and niche agri sectors offsetting
lower demand within amenity channel – Operational efficiencies and business process alignment
positively influencing result – Innovation and product formulation capability core to
business development
Business-to-business Agri-Inputs
Feed Ingredients Satisfactory performance on back of lower volumes – Reduced spot demand reflecting strong recovery in
grass production – Pronounced price volatility impacting customer
buying decisions – Increasing focus on least cost feed formulations
Financial Review 15
2015 Financial Highlights
*Before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets and exceptional items **Profit after interest and tax before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets and before exceptional items *** Before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets, net of related deferred tax (2015: €10.2m, 2014: €6.4m) and exceptional items, net of tax (2015: €12.0m credit, 2014: €5.1m charge) **** Includes restricted cash of €29.4m
July 2015 €m
July 2014 €m
% Change
Revenue
Agri-Services 1,458.1 1,415.2 3.0%
Group Operating Profit*
Agri-Services 78.9 79.5 (0.8%)
Associates and joint ventures** 14.1 13.4 5.1%
93.0 92.9 0.1%
Financing cost, net (4.8) (5.5) (13.1%)
Profit before tax* 88.2 87.4 0.9%
Adjusted diluted EPS*** 60.10c 57.51c 4.5%
Dividend per share 21.00c 20.00c 5.0%
Net cash/(debt) **** 88.8 (11.9) €100.7m
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Revenue – Agri-Services
1,200.0
1,300.0
1,400.0
1,500.0
1,600.0
FY14 Acquisitions Currency Underlying FY15
+€17.8m +1.2%
+€59.7m +4.2%
(€34.6m) (2.4%) +€42.9m
+3.0%
€m €1,415.2m
€1,458.1m
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Operating Profit – Agri-Services
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75.0
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
FY14 Acquisitions Currency Underlying FY15
(€1.3m) (1.6%)
+€3.3m +4.1%
(€2.6m) (3.3%)
(€0.6m) (0.8%) €m
€79.5m
€78.9m
EPS – Year-on-year Increase of 4.5%
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
58.00
60.00
62.00
FY14 Acquisitions Currency Tender Offer Underlying FY15
(1.10c) (1.9%)
+2.16c +3.7%
+2.24c +3.9%
(0.71c) (1.2%) +2.59c
+4.5%
€ cent Per Share
57.51c
60.10c
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Year Ended 31 July 2015 €m
2014 €m
Cashflow from operating activities 80.8 75.6 Change in working capital (9.7) 11.5 Interest and tax (16.2) (11.8) Net cash flow from operating activities 54.9 75.3 Dividends received 2.9 2.3 Capital expenditure, net - routine - investment
(7.9) (3.1)
(7.1) (7.6)
Acquisition expenditure - (13.4) Return of capital to shareholders - (100.2) Cash consideration on disposal of associate/joint venture 87.1 94.0 Dividends paid (25.0) (23.9) Other (0.5) (0.6) Decrease in debt 108.4 18.8 Opening net debt (11.9) (29.6) Translation (7.7) (1.1) Closing net cash/(debt) * 88.8 (11.9)
Cash Flow/Net Cash Continued strong cash generation - €100.7m reduction in debt
Reduction of €100.7m
20 * Includes restricted cash of €29.4m
Banking Facilities and Covenants
July 2015 July 2014
Net Debt to EBITDA * - 0.14
Covenant < 3.50 < 3.50
EBITDA to Net Interest 17.84 15.59
Covenant >3.00 >3.00
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Committed banking facilities of €430 million Weighted average debt maturity in years 2015: 3.73 years
All terms as defined for bank covenant testing purposes * Group is in a net cash position at 31 July 2015
Balance Sheet
July 2015 €m
July 2014 €m
Tangible assets 105.5 98.0
Intangibles / goodwill 161.4 151.4
Associates and joint ventures 39.0 97.5
Working capital (32.5) (46.0)
Put option liability (16.5) (16.4)
Provisions for liabilities, including pension (18.8) (8.0)
Net cash / (debt)* 88.8 (11.9)
Taxation - incl. deferred tax (34.4) (31.8)
Other (10.1) (8.8)
Shareholders funds 282.4 224.0
22 * Includes restricted cash of €29.4m
Central and Eastern Europe (‘CEE’) - Development
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Poland
Romania
Ukraine
Poland Ukraine
Farm Services 2015 Expanding Footprint
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Post Development
Pre Development
Farm Services Comparative market analysis – Central & Eastern Europe (‘CEE’)
UK Poland Romania Ukraine
Total Farm Units (No.) 187,000 1,507,000 3,859,000 43,000
Total Cropping Area 4.7m Ha 10.8m Ha 8.3m Ha 21.5m Ha
Average Farm size 81 Ha 10 Ha 3 Ha 500 Ha
% of Agriculture Area for Farm Units > 50 Ha 88% 30% 53% 85%
Average Wheat Yield / Ha 8.0 tn 4.0 tn 3.0 tn 4.0 tn
Grain and Oil Seeds Production 24.5m tn 32.0m tn 22.4m tn 65.0m tn
25 Data sourced from Eurostat, Defra (www.gov.co.uk/government/statistical-data-sets) & the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua)
2015 CEE Development Business Overview
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Farming Footprint 0.55m Ha 1.05m Ha 1.20m Ha
Customers (No.) 2,000 1,900 2,600
Focus Advisory and crop input provision
Advisory, crop input and crop marketing service provision
Advisory, crop input and crop marketing service provision
Positioning Leader in micro packaged seed dressings and crop protection
Leader in retail nutrition distribution
Leading service provider in Eastern Poland
Customer Focus Small and medium farm units Large and intensive farm units Small, medium and large farm units
Applications Arable, horticulture and vegetable Principally arable Arable, horticulture and vegetable
Distribution Direct farm and branded retail Direct farm Direct farm and branded retail
Other Extended distribution reach through partner franchise
Complementary customer and product profile with Redoxim
Specialist micro-nutrition formulation capability
2015 CEE Development Transaction summary
Total
Enterprise Valuation €35.0m €19.4m €22.4m €76.8m
EBIT €5.6m €3.2m €1.2m €10.0m
EBIT multiple 6.3 6.1 18.7 7.7
Acquisition Announcement 28 Jul 2015 28 Jul 2015 18 Aug 2015
Completion Date 17 Sept 2015 H1 2016 H1 2016
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2015 CEE Development Transaction Summary
2015 Development Investment rationale
Consistent with Origin's strategic priority to scale its crop management systems, services and technology sets – Strong on-farm brand positioning
Target geographies offering market leading positions and long term market potential – Intensification and farm consolidation driving increased yield potential and growth in serviced
agronomy – Multiple route-to-farm channels
Entry return on capital employed comfortably ahead of cost of capital with target to achieve Group average within three years Expected to be earnings enhancing in 2016 financial year
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Farm Services Summary
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UK Poland Romania Ukraine
Agronomy/Sales Force (No.) 280 112 82 60
Customers (No.) 20,000 6,100 3,900 1,250
Farming Footprint 1.4m Ha* 3.0m Ha** 1.6m Ha** 4.0m Ha**
Principal Farm Size Range 100 – 2,000 Ha 100 – 1,000 Ha 100 – 600 Ha 5,000 – 50,000 Ha
Sector Profile Competitive Fragmented Fragmented Fragmented
Origin Positioning 1 2 2 3
* Represents the total serviced agronomy footprint of the Group’s UK customers ** Represents the total overall farming footprint of the Group’s customers in Poland, Romania and Ukraine
Strategic Priorities and 2016 Focus Points
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Strategic Priorities Aligned to core capabilities and market opportunities
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Focus
Development
Organisation
Strategic Alliances
Research & Technology Transfer
Simplification unlocking scale benefits and improving customer and channel performance
Strengthening management resources and deployment of new capability to drive growth
Extension leveraging current service offer and knowledge transfer systems
Investment supporting further development of core product portfolios
Focused application of soil science and knowledge transfer of seed technologies to drive crop performance
Emphasis on the integration of digital technologies and product solutions
Partnerships providing enhanced knowledge transfer capability with improved decision making and product specification on farm
Prioritise value added solutions approach and customisation
2016 Key Priorities and Focus Points
Performance Management – Manage business through current more challenging backdrop for primary producers – Improved insight and organisation creating more focused selling strategies – Drive performance through managed led sales teams
CEE Platform - Integration – Initial emphasis on simplification, cultural integration and process alignment – Introduction of new and devolved capability
Development
– Target further consolidation opportunity
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Summary and Outlook 33
Summary
Well invested and focused business with established capability sets – Trusted brands and farming relationships underpinning excellent customer franchise – Clear priorities for on-farm technology transfer
Expanded farm services footprint with strong sector positions providing meaningful future development potential Origin positioning – Attractive cash flow, dividend and ROI profile – Strong capacity to fund development opportunity
Global agricultural fundamentals remain valid with positive long term outlook for primary food production
34
2016 Outlook
Primary output markets remain under sustained pressure with near term visibility on new price direction unlikely before mid 2016
Weaker backdrop impacting farm sentiment in the short term
Lower demand profile for services and inputs anticipated in 2016
Business is well positioned to respond to current market conditions and to benefit from sustained improvement in primary producer returns
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We will provide a further update on the 2016 financial year following an assessment of autumn crop plantings at the time of our first quarter trading update on 27 Nov 2015
Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015