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Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015

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Page 1: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015

Page 2: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Forward-Looking Statements

2

This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements have been made by the Directors in good faith based on the information available to them up to the time of the preparation of this presentation. Due to the inherent uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors underlying such forward-looking information, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. The Directors undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Page 3: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Table of Contents

Our Business …. ……............................................................................................. 04

2015 Highlights ……............................................................................................. 07

Agri-Services Trading Review ................................................................................ 10

Financial Review ……........................................................................................... 15

Central and Eastern Europe (‘CEE’) – Development .............................................. 23

Strategic Priorities and 2016 Focus Points …......................................................... 30

Summary and Outlook …….................................................................................. 33

Appendix ………………..…….................................................................................. 36 3

Page 4: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

4

Our Business

Page 5: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Our Business

5

Premier provider of agronomy services, inputs and crop technologies

Market leading positions in Ireland, UK, Poland, Ukraine and Romania *

Focus on delivery of customised crop management systems

– Addressing efficiency, quality and output requirements of primary producers

– Maximising value-add through technology transfer on farm

• Integrating advice with input prescriptions

• Influencing on-farm decision making and product specification

* The acquisition of Redoxim completed on 17 September 2015 subsequent to the year end.

Page 6: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Revenue Geography* Customer Channel* Application* Services Operating

Profit

€1.46bn

Agronomy

€78.9m

Crop and variety selection

Cultivation systems

Nutrition management

Decision support and precision applications Soil health and field inspections Origination, traceability, logistics and handling Prescription input formulation

Environmental stewardship

Agri-Services 2015 Overview

6

Crop Marketing / Feed / Other 12%

Amenity 7% Roots & Veg 4%

Grassland 22%

Combinable Crops 55%

Direct Farm (Integrated Agronomy

& Services) 53%

Business-to-business

(Agri-Inputs) 47%

Eastern Europe 22%

UK 67%

Ireland 11%

Customisation Risk management and supply chain

Optimising crop productivity through on-farm knowledge transfer and integrated technology packages

Total crop management systems

* Geography and Customer Channel breakdowns are based on actual reported revenues and operating profits, respectively. Application percentage breakdowns are based on operating profit best estimates using internal information and are approximate.

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7

2015 Highlights

Page 8: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Full year result in line with guidance

Resilient performance from Agri-Services in challenging market conditions – Bearish crop cycle and reduced seasonal intensity resulting in lower market demand for services and inputs

– Value added applications supporting performance

Robust cash generation during the year

5% increase in full year annual dividend to 21.0c

2015 Financial Highlights 3.3% underlying reduction in Agri-Services operating profit

8

Net Cash Adjusted EPS

60.10c +4.5%

Group Operating

Margin

5.4% -20bps

Agri-Services Operating

Profit

€78.9m -0.8%

Group Revenue

€1.46bn +3.0% €88.8m*

ROCE**

20.5%

Proposed Annual

Dividend

21.0c +5%

* Includes restricted cash of €29.4m ** Capital employed metric used in this calculation is based on average working capital for the Group

Page 9: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 Development Highlights Scale expansion of Agri-Services in Eastern Europe

9

* Acquisition completed on 17 September 2015 ** Agreement announced post year end on 18 August 2015

Capital re-allocation supporting Eastern European development

Divestment of interest in Valeo Foods

Romanian Agri-Services expansion

– Agreement reached to acquire Redoxim SRL* and Comfert SRL

Polish Agri-Services expansion**

– Agreement reached to acquire Kazgod Group

€86.6m

(€76.8m)

(€54.4m)

(€22.4m)

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10

Agri-Services Trading Review

Page 11: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 Market Overview

Highly challenging farming backdrop Record global supply impacting primary output markets

Price and currency volatility exerting pressure on incomes and cash flow of primary producers

Limited near term visibility on new output price direction before mid calendar year 2016

Heightened competitive intensity in consumption markets

Agri-service providers’ counter strategies Service portfolios positioned to meet farmers' requirements for flexible production systems

Tailored financing solutions supporting growers' investment decisions

Continued development of integrated technology platform delivering value added solutions

Cost improvement programmes aligned with current market backdrop 11

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Integrated On-Farm Agronomy Review United Kingdom

Resilient performance in year against backdrop of lower demand – Combined winter and spring plantings down 1.2% on 2014 levels – Reduced service and input investment by growers in Q4 – Highly competitive trading conditions across input portfolios

Repositioned service offer and cost improvement positively influencing performance – Further agronomisation of product portfolios supporting improved sales margins – Knowledge transfer focused on soil science application and total disease management – High output variety management

12

UK | Agrii

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Integrated On-Farm Agronomy Review Central and Eastern Europe

Good trading performance with higher margins and profits

– Sustained demand in year due to early spring season and favourable cropping profile

– Integrated product offers supporting margin improvement

– Lower crop marketing volumes

Reorganisation and a differentiated channel focus contributing to business performance

– Deeper client engagement through expanded service provision

– Focus on yield performance per hectare aligned with increasing farming professionalisation

Poland | Dalgety

Strong result with higher revenues and profits – Favourable sales and customer development with offers

promoting technology intensification – Farm sentiment influenced by currency weakness and liquidity – Lower underlying input and service spend with farmers

adopting cheaper investment alternatives

Prioritising of risk focus against uncertain political and economic backdrop – Rigorous currency and credit risk management – Input financing solutions through strong partner programmes

Development – Crop technology centres facilitating established knowledge

transfer platform – Service extension with precision agronomy and satellite

monitoring applications

Ukraine | Agroscope

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Page 14: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

B2B Agri-Inputs Review

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Fertiliser Stable volume performance underpinning satisfactory result in year – Strong supply chain execution supporting higher

volumes in UK against lower total market demand – Reduced application in UK livestock sector – Bespoke and specialist nutrition applications maintain

solid momentum Amenity

Good full year performance – Growth in professional and niche agri sectors offsetting

lower demand within amenity channel – Operational efficiencies and business process alignment

positively influencing result – Innovation and product formulation capability core to

business development

Business-to-business Agri-Inputs

Feed Ingredients Satisfactory performance on back of lower volumes – Reduced spot demand reflecting strong recovery in

grass production – Pronounced price volatility impacting customer

buying decisions – Increasing focus on least cost feed formulations

Page 15: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Financial Review 15

Page 16: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 Financial Highlights

*Before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets and exceptional items **Profit after interest and tax before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets and before exceptional items *** Before amortisation of non-ERP intangible assets, net of related deferred tax (2015: €10.2m, 2014: €6.4m) and exceptional items, net of tax (2015: €12.0m credit, 2014: €5.1m charge) **** Includes restricted cash of €29.4m

July 2015 €m

July 2014 €m

% Change

Revenue

Agri-Services 1,458.1 1,415.2 3.0%

Group Operating Profit*

Agri-Services 78.9 79.5 (0.8%)

Associates and joint ventures** 14.1 13.4 5.1%

93.0 92.9 0.1%

Financing cost, net (4.8) (5.5) (13.1%)

Profit before tax* 88.2 87.4 0.9%

Adjusted diluted EPS*** 60.10c 57.51c 4.5%

Dividend per share 21.00c 20.00c 5.0%

Net cash/(debt) **** 88.8 (11.9) €100.7m

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Page 17: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Revenue – Agri-Services

1,200.0

1,300.0

1,400.0

1,500.0

1,600.0

FY14 Acquisitions Currency Underlying FY15

+€17.8m +1.2%

+€59.7m +4.2%

(€34.6m) (2.4%) +€42.9m

+3.0%

€m €1,415.2m

€1,458.1m

17

Page 18: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Operating Profit – Agri-Services

18

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

FY14 Acquisitions Currency Underlying FY15

(€1.3m) (1.6%)

+€3.3m +4.1%

(€2.6m) (3.3%)

(€0.6m) (0.8%) €m

€79.5m

€78.9m

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EPS – Year-on-year Increase of 4.5%

50.00

52.00

54.00

56.00

58.00

60.00

62.00

FY14 Acquisitions Currency Tender Offer Underlying FY15

(1.10c) (1.9%)

+2.16c +3.7%

+2.24c +3.9%

(0.71c) (1.2%) +2.59c

+4.5%

€ cent Per Share

57.51c

60.10c

19

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Year Ended 31 July 2015 €m

2014 €m

Cashflow from operating activities 80.8 75.6 Change in working capital (9.7) 11.5 Interest and tax (16.2) (11.8) Net cash flow from operating activities 54.9 75.3 Dividends received 2.9 2.3 Capital expenditure, net - routine - investment

(7.9) (3.1)

(7.1) (7.6)

Acquisition expenditure - (13.4) Return of capital to shareholders - (100.2) Cash consideration on disposal of associate/joint venture 87.1 94.0 Dividends paid (25.0) (23.9) Other (0.5) (0.6) Decrease in debt 108.4 18.8 Opening net debt (11.9) (29.6) Translation (7.7) (1.1) Closing net cash/(debt) * 88.8 (11.9)

Cash Flow/Net Cash Continued strong cash generation - €100.7m reduction in debt

Reduction of €100.7m

20 * Includes restricted cash of €29.4m

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Banking Facilities and Covenants

July 2015 July 2014

Net Debt to EBITDA * - 0.14

Covenant < 3.50 < 3.50

EBITDA to Net Interest 17.84 15.59

Covenant >3.00 >3.00

21

Committed banking facilities of €430 million Weighted average debt maturity in years 2015: 3.73 years

All terms as defined for bank covenant testing purposes * Group is in a net cash position at 31 July 2015

Page 22: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Balance Sheet

July 2015 €m

July 2014 €m

Tangible assets 105.5 98.0

Intangibles / goodwill 161.4 151.4

Associates and joint ventures 39.0 97.5

Working capital (32.5) (46.0)

Put option liability (16.5) (16.4)

Provisions for liabilities, including pension (18.8) (8.0)

Net cash / (debt)* 88.8 (11.9)

Taxation - incl. deferred tax (34.4) (31.8)

Other (10.1) (8.8)

Shareholders funds 282.4 224.0

22 * Includes restricted cash of €29.4m

Page 23: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Central and Eastern Europe (‘CEE’) - Development

23

Page 24: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Poland

Romania

Ukraine

Poland Ukraine

Farm Services 2015 Expanding Footprint

24

Post Development

Pre Development

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Farm Services Comparative market analysis – Central & Eastern Europe (‘CEE’)

UK Poland Romania Ukraine

Total Farm Units (No.) 187,000 1,507,000 3,859,000 43,000

Total Cropping Area 4.7m Ha 10.8m Ha 8.3m Ha 21.5m Ha

Average Farm size 81 Ha 10 Ha 3 Ha 500 Ha

% of Agriculture Area for Farm Units > 50 Ha 88% 30% 53% 85%

Average Wheat Yield / Ha 8.0 tn 4.0 tn 3.0 tn 4.0 tn

Grain and Oil Seeds Production 24.5m tn 32.0m tn 22.4m tn 65.0m tn

25 Data sourced from Eurostat, Defra (www.gov.co.uk/government/statistical-data-sets) & the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.gov.ua)

Page 26: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 CEE Development Business Overview

26

Farming Footprint 0.55m Ha 1.05m Ha 1.20m Ha

Customers (No.) 2,000 1,900 2,600

Focus Advisory and crop input provision

Advisory, crop input and crop marketing service provision

Advisory, crop input and crop marketing service provision

Positioning Leader in micro packaged seed dressings and crop protection

Leader in retail nutrition distribution

Leading service provider in Eastern Poland

Customer Focus Small and medium farm units Large and intensive farm units Small, medium and large farm units

Applications Arable, horticulture and vegetable Principally arable Arable, horticulture and vegetable

Distribution Direct farm and branded retail Direct farm Direct farm and branded retail

Other Extended distribution reach through partner franchise

Complementary customer and product profile with Redoxim

Specialist micro-nutrition formulation capability

Page 27: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 CEE Development Transaction summary

Total

Enterprise Valuation €35.0m €19.4m €22.4m €76.8m

EBIT €5.6m €3.2m €1.2m €10.0m

EBIT multiple 6.3 6.1 18.7 7.7

Acquisition Announcement 28 Jul 2015 28 Jul 2015 18 Aug 2015

Completion Date 17 Sept 2015 H1 2016 H1 2016

27

2015 CEE Development Transaction Summary

Page 28: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2015 Development Investment rationale

Consistent with Origin's strategic priority to scale its crop management systems, services and technology sets – Strong on-farm brand positioning

Target geographies offering market leading positions and long term market potential – Intensification and farm consolidation driving increased yield potential and growth in serviced

agronomy – Multiple route-to-farm channels

Entry return on capital employed comfortably ahead of cost of capital with target to achieve Group average within three years Expected to be earnings enhancing in 2016 financial year

28

Page 29: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Farm Services Summary

29

UK Poland Romania Ukraine

Agronomy/Sales Force (No.) 280 112 82 60

Customers (No.) 20,000 6,100 3,900 1,250

Farming Footprint 1.4m Ha* 3.0m Ha** 1.6m Ha** 4.0m Ha**

Principal Farm Size Range 100 – 2,000 Ha 100 – 1,000 Ha 100 – 600 Ha 5,000 – 50,000 Ha

Sector Profile Competitive Fragmented Fragmented Fragmented

Origin Positioning 1 2 2 3

* Represents the total serviced agronomy footprint of the Group’s UK customers ** Represents the total overall farming footprint of the Group’s customers in Poland, Romania and Ukraine

Page 30: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Strategic Priorities and 2016 Focus Points

30

Page 31: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Strategic Priorities Aligned to core capabilities and market opportunities

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Focus

Development

Organisation

Strategic Alliances

Research & Technology Transfer

Simplification unlocking scale benefits and improving customer and channel performance

Strengthening management resources and deployment of new capability to drive growth

Extension leveraging current service offer and knowledge transfer systems

Investment supporting further development of core product portfolios

Focused application of soil science and knowledge transfer of seed technologies to drive crop performance

Emphasis on the integration of digital technologies and product solutions

Partnerships providing enhanced knowledge transfer capability with improved decision making and product specification on farm

Prioritise value added solutions approach and customisation

Page 32: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2016 Key Priorities and Focus Points

Performance Management – Manage business through current more challenging backdrop for primary producers – Improved insight and organisation creating more focused selling strategies – Drive performance through managed led sales teams

CEE Platform - Integration – Initial emphasis on simplification, cultural integration and process alignment – Introduction of new and devolved capability

Development

– Target further consolidation opportunity

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Page 33: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Summary and Outlook 33

Page 34: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Summary

Well invested and focused business with established capability sets – Trusted brands and farming relationships underpinning excellent customer franchise – Clear priorities for on-farm technology transfer

Expanded farm services footprint with strong sector positions providing meaningful future development potential Origin positioning – Attractive cash flow, dividend and ROI profile – Strong capacity to fund development opportunity

Global agricultural fundamentals remain valid with positive long term outlook for primary food production

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Page 35: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

2016 Outlook

Primary output markets remain under sustained pressure with near term visibility on new price direction unlikely before mid 2016

Weaker backdrop impacting farm sentiment in the short term

Lower demand profile for services and inputs anticipated in 2016

Business is well positioned to respond to current market conditions and to benefit from sustained improvement in primary producer returns

35

We will provide a further update on the 2016 financial year following an assessment of autumn crop plantings at the time of our first quarter trading update on 27 Nov 2015

Page 36: Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015 · This presentation contains forward- looking statements. These statements ... Shareholders funds . 282.4 224.0 * Includes restricted cash

Preliminary Results 2015 23 September 2015