predictive maintenance & service (pdms) - outline …©2014 sap ag or an sap affiliate company....
TRANSCRIPT
Predictive Maintenance & Service (PdMS) -Outline and Value PropositionOliver Mainka, Strategic ProjectsNovember 2014
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2Customer
Predictive analysis encompasses a range of analytic techniques
… the exploration and analysis, by automatic or semi-automatic means, of large quantities of data in order to discover meaningful patterns and rules.”
Gordon Linoff and Michael BerryAuthors of “Data Mining Techniques”
“
… the process of discovering meaningful new correlations, patternsand trends by sifting through large amounts of data stored in repositories, using pattern recognition technologies as well as statistical and mathematical techniques.”
Gartner Group
“
What is “Predictive Analysis”?
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 3Customer
ChallengesChallenges
Forecasting
KeyInfluencers
Trends
Anomalies
Relationships
How do historical sales, costs, key performance metrics, and so on, translate to future performance? How do predicted results compare with goals?
What are the main influencers of customer satisfaction, customer churn, employee turnover, and so on, that impact success?
What are the trends: historical / emerging, sudden step changes, unusual numeric values that impact the business?
What are the correlations in the data? What are the
cross-sell and up-sell opportunities?
What anomalies might exist and
conversely what groupings or clusters
might exist for specific analysis?
Predictive Analytics Needs (with Consumer Products samples)
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 4Customer
Predictive Maintenance is an Important Building Block for Improving Failing Assets
Predict Act
Source: Gartner
devices connected by 2020*
50 billion
price of sensors, microprocessors & wireless technologies today vs. 4 years ago**
1/540-50%CAGR for M2M market until 2020*
Sensor Data
Business Data
EnvironmentalData
Pattern and Root
CauseAnalysis Pr
edic
tions
- Create notification- Alter maintenance schedule- Preposition spare parts- Find “bad” suppliers- Change product specs- Service scheduling- Recommend services- Lower cost for PowerByHour- …
*Source: Gartner – “Top 10 Tech Trends for 2013” – 2012
**Source: Economist Intelligence Unit – ”The Rise of the Machines” – 2012
Sense
IoT M2M
IT/OT
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5Customer
Cost to Repair
Predictive Maintenance and Service Illustrated: The P-F Interval Curve
Mac
hine
Cap
abilit
y /
Res
ista
nce
to F
ailu
re
Time
Potential FailureP
TotalFailure
F Functional Failure
Preventive Maintenance& Monitor Condition
Equipment UnusableRepair or Replace
Mechanically Loose
Ancillary Damage
Early Signal 3 - Oil Contamination Detected
Audible Noise
Hot to Touch
Early Signal 2 – Vibration Analysis Fault
Early Signal 1 – Ultrasonic Energy DetectedEffect of
PdMS
“Can”
“Want”
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 6Customer
SAP HANA Platform
SAPInfiniteInsight
SAPLumira
SAP PredictiveAnalysis
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 7Customer
2013 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects (all OEMs)
Industry Country Scope
Automotive Germany Manufacturing Quality Assurance by automatic failure identification and anticipationbased on machine data.
Automotive Germany, US
Vehicle health prediction to improve manufacturing quality, service planning and customer satisfaction based on business and telemetry data. Very big data: Hana / Hadoop
AutomotiveTuning
Germany Product improvement in R&D based on vehicle test data.
AgriculturalEquipment
US Early identification of emerging issues for product improvement and failure prediction to reduce downtime based on business and telemetry data.
AgriculturalEquipment
Germany Identification and prioritization of machine failure pattern for product improvementbased on business and machine data.
Compressed Air Equipment
Germany Machine health prediction to lower service costs and increase machine up-time. Enable service, sales and R&D to transform the company to an industrial service provider.
Food IndustryEquipment
Germany Identification of health finger print based on vibration analysis. Integration of and monitoring of machine health using failure pattern for product improvement from business and machine data.
Aerospace US Systems trending and alert management framework which allows customer support to propose alternative maintenance schedules which may avoid unplanned downtime, increase aircraft availability and increase service and maintenance revenues.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8Customer
2014 PdMS Co-Innovation Projects
Industry Country Scope
Started / Confirmed
Aerospace USA Aircraft Health Management / work order creation
Mining Canada Yield prognosis for wells based on asset measurements
Rail Italy Optimized maintenance schedules based on telematics
Chemical Germany Data mining of all manufacturing data from assets and production
Aerospace MRO Switzerland Root cause analysis / new customer services
Flooring USA Relationship between customer warranty cases, production issues, and faulty machines
Oil & Gas USA Lower unneeded preventive maintenance activities; predict breakdowns
Discussing
Industrial Equipment
USA New customer services based on telematics data
Food and Beverage
USA Lower downtime of bad actor equipment by root cause analyses and predictions
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 9Customer
Demo Predictive Maintenance & Services Application
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 10Customer
Demo “Emerging Issues Detection”
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 11Customer
Visualizing Sensor / Tag Event Data
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 12Customer
Correlating Sensor Data and Maintenance Events
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 13Customer
Vibration Analysis
Identification of health finger print based on vibration analysis
Trend analysis and pattern comparison on vibration and process data
Detect emerging dangerous vibrations
Change from manual, reactive vibration analysis processto an automated, proactive process
Improvement of machine uptime and reduction ofmaintenance costs.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 14Customer
Lower-level machine data analysis
Analyze motor test bed data
Find metal cracks and compare heat signatures
Oven temperature Press force Press temperature
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 15Customer
Association Rules and Decision Trees
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 16Customer
Practical Example for Association Rules and Decision Trees
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 17Customer
Applying Association Rules to New Vehicle Readouts
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 18Customer
Sample Decision Tree
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 19Customer
Integrating data from unstructured text
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 20Customer
Text Cluster Analysis
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
Thank you
Contact information:
Oliver M. MainkaVP Product [email protected]+1 (650) 391-4701
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 22Customer
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without the express permission of SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company.
SAP and other SAP products and services mentioned herein as well as their respective logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of SAP AG (or an SAP affiliate company) in Germany and other countries. Please see http://global12.sap.com/corporate-en/legal/copyright/index.epx for additional trademark information and notices.
Some software products marketed by SAP AG and its distributors contain proprietary software components of other software vendors.
National product specifications may vary.
These materials are provided by SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company for informational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind, and SAP AG or its affiliated companies shall not be liable for errors or omissions with respect to the materials. The only warranties for SAP AG or SAP affiliate company products and services are those that are set forth in the express warranty statements accompanying such products and services, if any. Nothing herein should be construed as constituting an additional warranty.
In particular, SAP AG or its affiliated companies have no obligation to pursue any course of business outlined in this document or any related presentation, or to develop or release any functionality mentioned therein. This document, or any related presentation, and SAP AG’s or its affiliated companies’ strategy and possible future developments, products, and/or platform directions and functionality are all subject to change and may be changed by SAP AG or its affiliated companies at any time for any reason without notice. The information in this document is not a commitment, promise, or legal obligation to deliver any material, code, or functionality. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates, and they should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions.
© 2014 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 23Customer
© 2014 SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Weitergabe und Vervielfältigung dieser Publikation oder von Teilen daraus sind, zu welchem Zweck und in welcher Form auch immer, ohne die ausdrückliche schriftliche Genehmigung durch SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen nicht gestattet.
SAP und andere in diesem Dokument erwähnte Produkte und Dienstleistungen von SAP sowie die dazugehörigen Logos sind Marken oder eingetragene Marken der SAP AG (oder von einem SAP-Konzernunternehmen) in Deutschland und verschiedenen anderen Ländern weltweit.Weitere Hinweise und Informationen zum Markenrecht finden Sie unter http://global.sap.com/corporate-de/legal/copyright/index.epx.
Die von SAP AG oder deren Vertriebsfirmen angebotenen Softwareprodukte können Softwarekomponenten auch anderer Softwarehersteller enthalten.
Produkte können länderspezifische Unterschiede aufweisen.
Die vorliegenden Unterlagen werden von der SAP AG oder einem SAP-Konzernunternehmen bereitgestellt und dienen ausschließlich zu Informations-zwecken. Die SAP AG oder ihre Konzernunternehmen übernehmen keinerlei Haftung oder Gewährleistung für Fehler oder Unvollständigkeiten in dieser Publikation. Die SAP AG oder ein SAP-Konzernunternehmen steht lediglich für Produkte und Dienstleistungen nach der Maßgabe ein, die in der Vereinbarung über die jeweiligen Produkte und Dienstleistungen ausdrücklich geregelt ist. Keine der hierin enthaltenen Informationen ist als zusätzliche Garantie zu interpretieren.
Insbesondere sind die SAP AG oder ihre Konzernunternehmen in keiner Weise verpflichtet, in dieser Publikation oder einer zugehörigen Präsentation dargestellte Geschäftsabläufe zu verfolgen oder hierin wiedergegebene Funktionen zu entwickeln oder zu veröffentlichen. Diese Publikation oder eine zugehörige Präsentation, die Strategie und etwaige künftige Entwicklungen, Produkte und/oder Plattformen der SAP AG oder ihrer Konzern-unternehmen können von der SAP AG oder ihren Konzernunternehmen jederzeit und ohne Angabe von Gründen unangekündigt geändert werden.Die in dieser Publikation enthaltenen Informationen stellen keine Zusage, kein Versprechen und keine rechtliche Verpflichtung zur Lieferung von Material, Code oder Funktionen dar. Sämtliche vorausschauenden Aussagen unterliegen unterschiedlichen Risiken und Unsicherheiten, durch die die tatsächlichen Ergebnisse von den Erwartungen abweichen können. Die vorausschauenden Aussagen geben die Sicht zu dem Zeitpunkt wieder, zu dem sie getätigt wurden. Dem Leser wird empfohlen, diesen Aussagen kein übertriebenes Vertrauen zu schenken und sich bei Kaufentscheidungen nicht auf sie zu stützen.