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A KEYWORDS STUDIO YOKOZUNA data PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME

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Page 1: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

A KEYWORDS STUDIO

YOKOZUNA data

PREDICTINGTHE FUTUREOF YOUR GAME

Page 2: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

PUSHING BACK THE FRONTIERS OF GAME DATA SCIENCE: A state-of-the-art machine learning engine that predicts individual player behavior

Page 3: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

WHY IS YOKOZUNA DATA SO UNIQUE?

Page 4: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

IT PREDICTS WHEN EVERY PLAYER WILL LEAVE THE GAME

DATE LEVEL PLAYTIME MONEY

Page 5: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

WHICH ITEM WILL THEYPURCHASE NEXT?

Billing historyDistribution of itemprobabilities

Time to next purchase

08/06 08/15 08/27 09/06

Playtime

GAMEAPPLICATIONS

Players who may stop purchasing

Upcomingchurners

Page 6: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

RECOMMENDS THE BEST SEQUENCE OF EVENTS TO MAXIMIZE PLAYER ENGAGEMENT CONSIDERING EXTERNAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

Page 7: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

WHICH BUSINESS PROBLEMS DOES IT SOLVE?

Page 8: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

PLAYERRETENTION

GAME OPTIMIZATION

GAME DEVELOPMENT

Page 9: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

$1.3M/monthsales increase

+10%VIP Retention

$4M/monthsales increase

+5%PU Increase

$8M/yearsales increase

Improvingdevelopmentof levels with the highest churn rate

NUMBERS FOR AAA MOBILE GAMES

Page 10: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

$200K/monthsales increase

$70K/monthsales increase

+5%PU Increase

$10M/yearsales increase

+10%VIP Retention

Improvingdevelopmentof levels with the highest churn rate

NUMBERS FOR WESTERN CASUAL GAMES

Page 11: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

HOW DOES ITWORK?

Page 12: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

nCrn!r!(n-r)!

=

VideoGame

Data

Take Action

Machine LearningAI Models

IndividualPlayerBehaviouralPredictions

Page 13: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

VIDEO GAME DATA

Logins Actions In-app PurchasesVirtual PurchasesItems SelectedPlaytime Time FrameSocial InteractionsIn-game Level-ups

Page 14: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

WHY IS IT SO GROUNDBREAKING?

Page 15: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

OPERATIONAL PLAYER BEHAVIOURAL PREDICTIONThe first recommendation system and prediction platform that utilizes next-gen AI algorithms to move game development into the future.

Page 16: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

DEEP LEARNING AND ENSEMBLE LEARNING Deep Learning and Ensemble Learning provide individual behavioral predictions, simulations and personalized challenges and rewards.

Page 17: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

BIG DATAUtilizing the latest techniques in big data processing and cloud computing, YOKOZUNA data scales to datasets of any size.

Page 18: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

HOW ACCURATE ARE OUR PREDICTIONS?

Page 19: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

We won both tracks of the NCSoft's Blade & Soul Game Data Science competition at the IEEE 2017 Conference on Computational Intelligence in Games (CIG)

YokozunaData (Japan)

UTU (Finland)

TripleS (Korea)

TheCowKing

goedleio

0.610098

0.60326

0.57968

0.59370

0.57717

0.63326

0.60370

0.62459

0.60718

0.56205

0.62145

0.60348

0.60130

0.60036

0.58882

Team Test1 Score Test2 Score Total Score Rank

1

2

3

4

5

YokozunaData (Japan)

IISLABSKKU

UTU (Finland)

TripleS (Korea)

DTND

0.883248

1.034321

0.927712

0.958308

1.032688

0.616499

0.679214

0.898471

0.891106

0.930417

Team Test1 Score Test2 Score

Track 1 Which players will leave the game Track 2 When they will leave the game

Page 20: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

CHURN PREDICTION IN MOBILE SOCIAL GAMES: TOWARDS A COMPLETE

ASSESSMENT USING SURVIVAL ENSEMBLES

A. Perianez, A. Saas, A. Guitart and C. Magne

IEEE DSAA 2016 Montreal

DISCOVERING PLAYING PATTERNS:

TIME SERIES CLUSTERINGOF FREE-TO-PLAY

GAME DATA

A. Guitart, A. Perianez and A. Saas,

IEEE CIG 2016 Santorini

GAMES AND BIG DATA: A SCALABLE

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CHURN PREDICTION

MODEL

P. Bertens, A. Guitart and A. Perianez, A. Saas, IEEE CIG 2017 New York

FORECASTING PLAYER BEHAVIORAL DATA

AND SIMULATING IN-GAME EVENTS

A. Guitart, P. Chen, P. Bertens and A. PerianezIEEE FICC 2018 Singapore

THE WINNING SOLUTION TO THE IEEE CIG 2017

GAME DATA MINING COMPETITION

A. Guitart, P. Chen, A. Periáñez

A MACHINE-LEARNINGITEM RECOMMENDATION

SYSTEM FOR VIDEO GAMES

P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Periáñez

IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht

CUSTOMER LIFETIMEVALUE IN VIDEO

GAMES USING DEEPLEARNING AND

PARAMEDIC MODELS

P. Chen, A. Guitart, A. Fernandez de Rio and A. Periáñez

IEEE Big Data 2018 Seattle

YOKOZUNA DATA PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

Page 21: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

MILESTONES

Page 22: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

INTERNATIONAL PRESS COVERAGE

BY TOP MEDIA

BEST PAPER AWARDAT FICC2018

1

WINNERS OF GAME CHURN PREDICTION

CONTEST IEEE NCSOFT

CMU APLICANTS FOR SUMMER INTERNSHIP

+40

7 PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN TOP MACHINE

LEARNING CONFERENCES

Page 23: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

WHAT IS THE MEDIA SAYING ABOUT US?

Page 24: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

“Game Makers AreProfiling Players to Keep

Them Hooked”

“An algorithm that knowswhen you'll get bored withyour favourite video game”

“The next generation of video games will use AI to

personalize your experience”

“Game makers deploydeep-learning AI algorithmsto keep players coming back

for more”

“Data scientists are already workingon ways to leverage historical datato create a model for prediction ofwhen a player will stop playing.”

“This algorithm canpredict users' affinity

towards video games”

Page 25: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF YOUR GAME · VIDEO GAMES P. Chen, A. Guitart, P. Bertens, A. Peri ez IEEE CIG 2018 Maastricht CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE IN VIDEO GAMES USING DEEP LEARNING AND

CONTACT

WWW.YOKOZUNADATA.COM

[email protected]

A KEYWORDS STUDIO

YOKOZUNA data