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Predicting the future of Kenya’s forests using Japanese forestry as a model

Birundu Abednego Osindi*, Yasushi Suzuki**, Jun’ichi Gotou** and Mika Matsumoto**

*Corresponding author：Graduate School of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Kochi University**Faculty of Agriculture, Kochi University

12/04/2015

22nd Academic Conference of the Japan Forest Engineering SocietyDecember 5th 2015

Kagoshima University

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Contents

•Self-introduction•Part 1:Major comparison points between Kenyan and Japanese forestryConclusion•Part 2:Future of Kenya’s forestsConclusions and recommendations

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Self-introductionName: BIRUNDU Abednego OsindiGrade: Masters in Forest Sciences (Graduate School of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Kochi Univ)Undergraduate: Environmental Conservation and Natural Resource Management (Nairobi Univ, Kenya) Interests: Environmental conservation, writing, and athletics

Thesis topic: Incorporation of Japanese best practices in forestry into Kenya’s forestry system.

Objectives:Japanese forest management practices,Forest utilization techniques, Forest technologies, Forest policies

Source: Kenya Forestry Service, 2012. Annual report 2010/2011. Available online at http://www.kenyaforestservice.org/documents/2012%20annual%20report%20final%20email-%2025th%20Oct%202012.pdf

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ForestsLakes

Major riversMinor rivers

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ForestsIntegral role in daily life (energy, construction, food, shelter, ecosystem services)Need for conservation and management

KenyaForest cover=7% (below Kenyan Constitution and CBD COP 9 requirement of 10%)Biomass (forests) account for 80 % of energy provision80% of Kenyans depend on forests for daily livelihood Thus: Increased pressure on available forests

Japan67% forest coverConstant trend for decadesForest utilizationThus: Why I came to Japan

General Overview

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Type Area

(ha)

Total Area (ha)

Percentage

(%)

Public Natural 905,3571,043,509 24

Plantation 138,152

Community & Private

Natural 3,252,9223,349,069 76

Plantation 94,146

Kenyan Forest Statistics as of the year 2013

Source: KFS (2013) Analysis of demand and supply of wood products in Kenya

Community & private forests occupy the largest % Natural forests account for the highest forest cover (95%)Plantations only occupy 5% of forest area

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Year Policy Actions Details1902 First forest department Forest Conservation1908 *Gazette of major forest

blocks 1957 First Forest Policy Management of public forests , & Private forests

not considered1968 Revision of forest policy *Shamba system, Community utilization, Local

authority management, & Research and education

1994 Kenya forest master plan (KEMP)

Community participation , Cost sharing, Decentralization, & Conservation and protection

2005 The Forests Act -Establishment of the Kenya Forestry Service (KFS), Definition of public, private/communal forests & Community participation

2014 1. Comprehensive forest policy 2. Forest Management and Conservation Bill

-Enhancing provisions in the Forests Act of 2005

Source: Kenya Forestry Service, 2015. History of Forestry in Kenya. Available online at http://www.kenyaforestservice.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=406&Itemid=563

History of Forestry in Kenya (Policy )Publication of a government document

Multiple land use (taungya)

colonial

Post-colonial

Law passed by parliament

Forestry Agency in Japan

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Year Policy Action Details1897 First forest policy Forest protection, & Management

control 1939 Amendment of

the forest policyIntroduction of silviculture, & Formation of cooperatives

1951 First forestry law Setting up regional management areas, & afforestation (WWII effects)

1957 Amendment of the forestry law

Continued afforestation, More management districts, & Tree cutting allowed

1965 Major policy revisions

Boosting of manmade forests, & Promotion of silviculture

1983 Introduction of the thinning policy

Address increased number of manmade forests, & low labor

1983- onwards

Minor policy revisions

-Implementation and compliance

History of Forestry in Japan (Policy)

Handa (1988) Forest Policy in Japan. 457pp, Nippon Ringyo Chosakai, Tokyo.

Meiji era

Showa (Start of WWII)

“ After WWII

“ Post-modern Japan

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Forest Cover Transition in Kenya

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Source: UNEP, 2012. How much forest in Kenya; surprisingly difficult question to answer. United Nations Environmental Program. Online: http://www4.total.fr/pdf/AMO/Kenya/ecochallenge/the%20expert%20corner/C-Lambrechts-UNEP-Forest-cover-Kenya-overview.pdf.

%

PERIOD

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Lowest forest cover in 2001 (0.98 %)Growth by double fault in 2014 (7.0 %)Attribution to policy formulation and implementation

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Forest Cover Transition in Japan

Source: Forestry Agency, 201412/04/2015

Natural Man madeOthers10,000 ha

Constant and maintained forest cover

1000

2000

1966 86 2002 12

1012/04/2015 Source: Forestry Agency, 2014

Product amount of firewood in Japan

10,000m3

0

10

20

30

‘73 ‘90 ‘05 ‘12

Continuous reduction in firewood demand90% energy from woody biomass in 1880s and just 20% in 1970s (Handa, 1988) Major reason= presence of non-wood substitutes and continuous policy formulation and implementation Comparison point: 80% energy from woody biomass in Kenya

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Conclusion

Japanese period of 1950s and 60s well fits into the current Kenyan forestry system:Struggle from low forest coverHigh dependency on forests Major policy introductionsAdoption of sustainable forest management systems

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The future of Kenya’s forests(energy)

Others: Oil and coal explorationsNuclear energy

Images source: Energy Regulatory Commission, Kenya. Available online at http://www.renewableenergy.go.ke/index.php/12/04/2015

Presence of non-wood energy substitutes key to forest growthElectricity installation has risen by 34% since 2004-2012Renewable energy projects are ongoing

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The future of Kenya’s forests (economy)

Source: Robinson J. (2015). 20-fastest growing economies this year. Bloomberg. Available online at (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/the-20-fastest-growing-economies-this-year)12/04/2015

Kenya

60 3Forecasted GDP Growth (%)

Kenya is 3rd fastest growing economy in the world Among top 1o middle-income countries in AfricaOutcome= improved livelihood, forest funding and subsidies

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The future of Kenya’s forests(direct impact)

The future of Kenya’s forests

Afforestation and ReforestationCommunity ParticipationResearch and Education Establishment of more forest plantations Law enforcement and compliance

Images Source: Kenya Forestry Service, 2012. Annual report 2010/2011. Available online at http://www.kenyaforestservice.org/documents/2012%20annual%20report%20final%20email-%2025th%20Oct%202012.pdf

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Conclusions and recommendations

Although it may take a few years from now, the future of Kenyan forestry is quite promisingRevision of policies to incorporate better silvicultural practices (e.g. thinning) and those that promote incentives for forest development and management Shift to non-wood sources of energyMore research and education Practice of sustainable forestry

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My blog link: http://thegreenblooddrops.blogspot.jp/

Thank you

ありがとうございます

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Electricity installed capacity by type of power, 2004-2012 (hydro, thermal, geothermal & cogeneration)

Source: KNBS, (2013) Electricity installed capacity by type of power, 2004 – 2012.

Year

The graph does not include other sources of energy like fossil fuels and renewable sources like solar and wind.

Meg

a-w

atts

(2004) (05) (06) (07) (08) (09) (10) (11) (12)

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Transition of cut wood volume (before & during the war)

LumberFirewood

Cut Area

10,000 ha10,000 m3Highest exploitation during the warGenerally high volume (demand) compared to later periods (e.g. 1970s)

Source: Forestry Agency, 2014