predicting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem ... · predicting and assessing natural...
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Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)
(FY 2016-2020)
Shizuka HashimotoIntegrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S),
The University of Tokyo
社会科学系の写真
The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund
Ministry of the Environment, Japan
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Trend of population
2
Pop
ulat
ion
(tho
usan
d)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Population (thousand)
20-40. mil. decrease of pop. by 2050
96,205 89,526
104,433
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
(thousand people)
Medium mortality/Medium birth rate
Low mortality/High birth rate
High mortality/Low birth rate
Population estimation(by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Year
Trend of population and aging
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% o
f pe
ople
ove
r 65
Pop
ulat
ion
(tho
usan
d)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Population (thousand)
% of people over 65
Societal challenges
Economic challenges
Increased dependence on oversea products
Ageing/depopulation
Unclear cadastral information
Rural-urban migration
Pressure of trade liberalization
Increase of alien species
ThreatsErosion of cultural heritage/indigenous knowledge
Human-wildlife conflict
Disaster due to poor land management
Loss of biodiversity
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Challenges and threats associated withland and ecosystems of Japan
Decline of agricultural price
Land abandonment
Road to PANCES:Relevant Assessments up till Today
Japan Biodiversity Outlook (JBO) (2008-2010)
• Conducted by the expert committee established by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan
• Focused mainly on the conditions and trend biodiversity with timeframe from 1960-2010
Japan Satoyama-Satoumi Assessment (2006-2010)
• Initiated by UNU as a follow-up SGA of MA
• Focused mainly on the conditions and trend of ecosystem services, relied mainly on statistics
• Timeframe: 1960-2050 with qualitative scenarios
Japan Biodiversity Outlook2 (JBO2) (2014-2015)
• 2nd round of JBO by the expert committee under the MoE
• Covered both biodiversity and ecosystem services
• No future projection nor scenario analysis
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Limitations of existing assessments
Limitations include but not limited to… Evaluation of cultural services
Ecosystem service’s contribution to human well-being
Valuation of total economic value of ecosystem services
Relationship between natural capital and ecosystem services
Implication of alternative development pathways (scenarios)
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Objectives of PANCES
Develop an integrated model of social-ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio-economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different future scenarios of socio-economic conditions and policy options;
Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve “inclusive wellbeing”;
Examine effectiveness and applicability of the integrated assessment modelto other areas in Japan and beyond.
Objectives
Past related activities
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Framework of the PANCES Project
Drivers (direct & indirect)
Crises that biodiversity and ecosystem services are confronting in Japan
Crisis 1: Overuse
Crisis 4: Global changes
Crisis 3: Invasive spp.
Crisis 2: Underuse
Contribution to sustainable development and the inclusive wellbeing based on the mid-long term assessment and projection
<Social Changes>• Depopulation• Land use change• Underuse• Science and
Technology• Trade, etc.
< Assessment and projection of natural values from ecosystem services>
<Environmental Changes>• Climate change• Ocean acidification• Natural disasters, etc.
Theme 2. Terrestrial ESs Theme 3. Marine ESs
Theme 4.
Theme 1. Development of an integrated model of social-ecologicalsystems and scenario analysis
Feasibility study of other Asian areas
Provisioning
Assessment and projection of socio-economic values of ESs
Multilevel governance of natural capital and inclusive wellbeing
Regulating Cultural
Natural Capital
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Framework of PANCES Scenarios and Models
Demography & Industry Sub-model
Land Use Sub-model
Natural Capital
Sub-model
EconomicScience,
TechnologySocial
institutionsFood
demandInternational trade, etc.
Key Driving Forces
Future Scenarios(sub-theme 1-1)
Basic Framework(sub-theme 1-2)
Climate Changes &
Ocean Acidification
Inclusive Well-being
Natural Values
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Services
Marine Ecosystem
Services
Param
eteri‐
zation
Tree traits
Policy Options / Multi‐level Governance (governance indicators, innovative funding mechanism)
Sensitivity to climate changes
Adaptation distribution capacity
Labor population by sector
Concentrated or distributed
Urban, green space, farm land, grassland, woodland, waterbody, coastal port
Potential capacity, actual human use
River‐basin interactions
Nutrients, sediments, creatures
Crop variety
Localized Inclusive wealth index
Socio-Economic
Values
Local food culture,Ocean Health Index
Shadow value,Natural capital accounting
JSSA(2012)Forest stock, fishery stock
Potential capacity, actual human use
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Linking Models for AssessingEcosystem Functions/Services and HWB
(theme 1~4)
Terrestrial Ecosystem
Marine Ecosystem
Primary, secondary production capacity
Sensitivity to climate changes
Adaptation distribution capacity
Land UseAnthropogenic Assets Natural Capital
Changes in Land‐use and Land‐covers・Spatial predictions・Remote sensing data
Changes in Natural Capital・Natural capital stock (Forest, Agriculture, Marine resources), Statistics and Inventories ・Census of Agriculture and Forestry
Modelling ESs in Theme2 (Terrestrial)・3(Marine) , Scio‐economic valuations in Theme4
Demographic and Industrial Structures Sub‐model Land Use Sub‐model
Natural CapitalSub‐model
Populations and labor force in urban, sub‐urban, rural area
Land‐cover and Land‐use: Urban, Agricultural land (paddy, crops and fruit farm), Bamboo, Managed forest, Natural forest, Grassland, Water surface (river, pond), harbor etc.
Stock assessment on Forestry, Agriculture, Fishery (see weed bed, coral reef, tideland etc.)
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Changes in Direct/Indirect Drivers・Population distribution, Industrial structures・Stochastic predictions
Haga et al. (2016)
2010 2050
Hashimoto (2016)
2010 2050 2010 2050
National Land Numerical Information(Future prospects)
Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios
Example of modeling exercises
Future Scenarios for Natural and Socio‐Economic Values of Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services
1) National-scale scenarios
2) Local scenarios at case study sites
• Develop national scenarios taking into account major challenges such as climate change/ocean acidification and demographic and socio-economic changes
• Employ Story-and-Simulation approach
• Develop participatory scenarios reflecting diverse views of local stakeholders, traditional and local knowledge
• Selected Sado Island as the pilot study area for participatory scenario exercise and organized a preparatory meetings with gov. officials for the exercise
SadoIslandNoto Peninsula
(relevance to urban areas)
Okinawa Islands
Hokkaido
© MOEJ
Preparatory meeting with officials of Sado 14
Multi‐level Nested Governance of Natural Capital
Local collaborations(Bottom‐up)
Local communities
NPOs
Multi‐level governance of natural capital
Stake holder
PANCES also explores a mechanism for cooperative management of natural capital based on nested collaboration among different stakeholders
Global/ Regional/ National
Local
Local gov’t Universities
Governments’ initiatives(top‐down)
UN
Regionalcommunities
Multinational companies
Stake holder
Nations
Aid agencies
Farmers, foresters, fishers
Stake holder
Urban residents
Stake holder
Co‐ops
Stake holder
Stake holder
Small enterprises
Stake holder
Stake holder
Int’lNGOs
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Expected Outputs and Outcomes
[Outputs] Inputs to CBD, IPBES regional and global assessments,
Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) , and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation (IPCC).
Contributions to national and local biodiversity strategy action plans in Japan.
[Outcomes] Promote implementation of Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) and localization of Inclusive Wealth Index. Collaborate with international global environment research
initiatives such as Future Earth. Contribute to the establishment of Green Economy in Asian
region through efforts in International SATOYAMA Initiative. Contribute to revitalization of rural economy as Japan’s urgent
issue through developing new business models and multilevel governance of natural capital.
The National Biodiversity Strategy of Japan 2012‐2020
1st Asian Conference on Biocultural Diversity
(27‐29 Oct. 2016)
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TimelineFY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020
Theme 1
Theme 2(Terrestrial)
・Theme 3(Marine)
Theme 4
Inputs to inter‐national env. policy
Inputs toCBD‐COP13 in Mexico
Contributionsto IPBES regional and global assessments
Organize an international conference andspecial feature of Sust. Sci. journal
Multi‐stakeholdersmeeting for science‐policy interface in Asia
E‐book publication andorganize final international conference
Design of future scenario and basic framework for future projection
Development and maintenance of the common information platform
Scenario analysis at both national and local scales
Provision of policy options
Science-policy-society interface
Quantitative assessment and mapping of natural values of natural capital and
ecosystem services
Development of tools and indicators for scenario analysis of natural capital and
ecosystem services
Analyze interaction between terrestrial and marine ecosystems at case study basins
Development of an integrated terrestrial-marine assessment model
Data collection and analysis of participatory management cases
Propose ILK-based conservation measures of natural capital
Development of analysis tools to assess socio-economic values
Propose policy options to improve socio-economic values of natural capital &
ecosystem services, and inclusive wealth
Data collection and analysis of governance cases and indicators
Conceptualize better multi-level governance of natural capital
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For more information about PANCES
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Homepage (http://pances.net/top/) Brochure