predictably great planning for an unpredictable future ted knowlton, wasatch front regional council...
TRANSCRIPT
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PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL
UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE
FALL 2014
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THE CURRENT DOMAIN OF RESILIENCY PLANNING
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PLANNING FOR A FUNDAMENTALLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE
“Jazz win first NBA title”
“President Chelsea Clinton bans non-pot smoking”
“Jenna Bush announces candidacy for President”
“Fidel Castro dies at age 102, Cuban cigars now legal”
“BYU joins the Texmex 12 conference”
HEADLINES FROM 2030
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WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?
• Demographic mix• Amount of growth• Consumer attitudes
• Industry shifts• Energy costs• Economic cycles• Climate change
• Natural disasters
Unpredictable
Some Predictability
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RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: MARKET SHIFTS
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WASATCH FRONT DEMOGRAPHICSGOVERNOR’S OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
2013 2030 Growth0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Over 6518 to 64
31%
COHORT CHANGES THAT WILL DRIVE THE HOUSING MARKET
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Dow
ntow
n
Res
iden
tial C
ity
Mixed
Sub
urba
n
Resid
entia
l Sub
urba
n
Smal
l Tow
n
Rural
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Boomer Eisenhower Gen X Gen Y
WHERE WE WANT TO LIVE VERSUS WHERE WE LIVE
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INDUSTRY SHIFTS
• Internet-related retail decline
• Auto industry dealer consolidation
• Industrial restructuring
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MARKET UNCERTAINTY? POLICY FLEXIBILITY
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“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE POLICIES
• North Salt Lake General Plan 2013
• Town Center policies
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“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE STRATEGIES
• South Salt Lake “East Streetcar Neighborhood Form Based Code”
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UTAH’S TEMPLATE FORM BASED CODE
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HIGHER DENSITY ZONING PROVIDES MORE MARKET FLEXIBILITY
Low Density Zoning High Density Zoning0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DU/Acre
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RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
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U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, September 2012
GAS PRICESRecent Trends Projections
US Energy Information Agency
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MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON TRANSPORTATION
Data not available
0 to 730 $
730 to 800 $
800 to 860 $
860 to 930 $
More than 930 $
2000 2008
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MOST HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPREAD THIN
• Utahans spend about 25% on transportation
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HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES?
• Housing?
• Transportation?
• Work?
• Food?
• Do city residents have the options available to cope?
?
?
?
??
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WHAT CHOICES DOES A HOUSEHOLD HAVE?
• Transportation Choices?
• Housing Choices?
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DESTINATIONS REACHABLE WITHOUT A CAR?
Now 2040
Jobs reachable within 40 minutes of homes
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ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY? PROVIDE OPTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS?
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“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL
Two valid ways of communicating:
A mix of housing options in the community
=
“I have more choices”
=
“I have more control over my life”
More high density housing in the community
=
“More crowding in the community”
=
“I feel less safe”
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“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL
Two valid ways of communicating:
“Choices” “Crowding”
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Resiliency Planning in cities is critically needed and in its infancy
• Market Uncertainty? Policy Flexibility
• Economic Uncertainty? Maximize Choices
• Communication Approach Matters!
• Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility
• “Choices” = control over your life
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PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL
UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE
FALL 2014