precious metals sme ny chapter 11 march 2010

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Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010 Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Director [email protected] 30 Broad Street | 37 th Floor New York, NY 10004 www.cpmgroup.com

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Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010. 3 0 Broad Street | 37 th Floor New York, NY 10004 www.cpmgroup.com. Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Director [email protected]. The Macroeconomic Environment. Economic Tar Pits to Avoid. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Precious Metals

SME NY Chapter11 March 2010

Jeffrey M. ChristianManaging [email protected]

30 Broad Street | 37th FloorNew York, NY 10004www.cpmgroup.com

Page 2: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Macroeconomic Environment

Page 3: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Economic Tar Pits to Avoid

• While the depth of the recent recession has exceeded the problems of past recessions since the Great Depression, the degree to which this recession has been in line with other post-war recessions probably is greater than the degree to which it has greatly exceeded past recessionary trends.

• Global decoupling has not been happening. In fact, global economies are more interwoven with each other than before.

• The U.S. economy is not on its back, over the hill, passé, or particularly volatile.

• The Chinese economy most likely does not face a bust.

Page 4: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Economic Outlook

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09p 10p 11p12p 13p-4

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9World Emerging EconomiesAdvanced Economies

% Change % Change

Real Gross Domestic ProductAnnual, Projected Through 2013

Source: IMF

Page 5: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Economy has been less volatile than in the Good Old Days

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Percent Change Percent Change

2006

U.S. real GDP: 1850 – 1919, 16 recessions, 22 month average length; 1945 – 2007, 10 recessions, 10 months average length

Page 6: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The past 25 years to 2007 were the most stable in U.S. history

U.S. real GDP: 1945 – 1983, 8 recessions, 11 month average length; 1983 – 2007, 2 recessions, 8 months average length

Page 7: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

U.S. Inflation May Remain Calm

1947 1953 1958 1964 1969 1975 1980 1986 1991 1997 2002 2008-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

CPI: All Items CPI: All Items Less Food & Energy

U.S. CPI : All Items and All Items Less Food & Energy

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percent Change Year-on-Year Through December 2009

Percent Percent

Page 8: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Inflation Fears Are Based On Narrow Money Supply’s Sharp Increase

Page 9: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

But Inflation May Be Contained: Broad Money Supply Has Not Yet Expanded

Page 10: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Lagging Indicators

Many market commentaries are focusing on the high, if not still rising, unemployment figures in the United States (and other countries), and the continued absence of bank lending to corporations and individuals as indications that the recession is still underway.

Both of these factors tend to lag economic activity, however. Neither of them are leading indicators of an economic recovery.

•Unemployment tends to continue rising into an economic recovery, and only peak and decline well into a recovery.

•In past economic cycles banks have remained on the sidelines as lenders until an economic recovery is well established.

Page 11: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

U.S. Unemployment

Page 12: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Credit availability has collapsed

Page 13: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Dollar Will Remain The Main Reserve Currency For Years

•Slow diversification into the euro has been happening for a decade. It will continue to occur.

• There is no credible alternative to the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

•Demand for U.S. dollars as a reserve currency is still strong.

•The dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status in the foreseeable future.

Page 14: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Dollar Will Remain The Main Reserve Currency For Years

72.7%

61.6%

17.0%

27.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

US Dollar

Euro

Source: Goldman Sachs

Page 15: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Commodities Prices and the U.S. Dollar

J-70 J-73 J-76 J-79 J-82 J-85 J-88 J-91 J-94 J-97 J-00 J-03 J-06 J-09-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

f(x) = − 3.93211200903314E-05 x + 1.12774787784583R² = 0.071141075566979

Rolling 1-year Correlation Coefficient between CRB and the J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar Computed using monthly data

Correlation Coefficient

Page 16: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Market Myths About China

There are many myths and misconceptions about short- and long-term trends in China’s economic development, and its place in the world.

•Myth 1: China will soon displace the United States and other industrialized nations as the major economic engine.

•Opposite Myth: The United States will continue to exert economic and political hegemony over the world.

Both extremes are wrong.

China is growing in importance. So, too, are other countries that are emerging from long periods of restrictive economic policies.

While they will become ever more important to the global economy, they will not supplant the United States in terms of total economic size, either in real output or in consumption and investing.

Page 17: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Myth 2: The Chinese Economy Faces a Bust

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010p

2012p2014p

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2

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6

8

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12

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16

China Real GDPAnnual Percentage Change, projected through 2014

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009

Percentage Change Percentage Change

Concerns about a potential collapse in Chinese economic growth seem overblown.

Page 18: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

World GDP Shares

Major World Economies: Share of Global Gross Domestic Product

2008

RankPercent of

Total

United States 1 26.7%Japan 2 9.1%China 3 6.3%Germany 4 6.1%United Kingdom 6 4.8%France 5 4.6%Italy 7 3.6%Canada 8 2.6%Spain 9 2.5%Brazil 10 2.3%India 11 2.0%Russia 12 1.9%Other 27.5%Subtotal top economies 72.5%

Source: The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture

26.7%

9.1%

6.3%

6.1%4.8%4.6%3.6%

2.6%2.5%

2.3%2.0%1.9%

27.5%

United StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomFranceItalyCanadaSpainBrazilIndiaRussiaOther

2008 Percent of Total

Page 19: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The World is Changing

Major World Economies: Share of Global Gross Domestic Product

2008 2030

RankPercent of

Total RankPercent of

Total

United States 1 26.7% 1 22.8%China 3 6.3% 2 15.5%Japan 2 9.1% 3 5.2%Germany 4 6.1% 4 4.3%India 11 2.0% 5 4.2%United Kingdom 5 4.8% 6 3.7%France 6 4.6% 7 3.3%Brazil 10 2.3% 8 2.6%Russia 12 1.9% 9 2.4%Italy 7 3.6% 10 2.3%Canada 8 2.6% 11 2.2%Spain 9 2.5% 12 1.8%Other 27.5% 29.7%Subtotal top economies 72.5% 70.3%

Notes: Adjusted for purchasing power parity.

Source: The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture

26.7%

6.3%

9.1%

6.1%

2.0%4.8%4.6%

2.3%1.9%

3.6%2.6%2.5%

27.5%

United StatesChinaJapanGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomFranceBrazilRussiaItalyCanadaSpainOther

2008 Percent of Total

22.8%

15.5%

5.2%4.3%4.2%3.7%3.3%

2.6%2.4%

2.3%2.2%1.8%

29.7%

United StatesChinaJapanGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomFranceBrazilRussiaItalyCanadaSpainOther

2030 Percent of Total

Page 20: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Then again…

2008 2030 1820

RankPercent of

Total RankPercent of

Total RankPercent of

Total

China 3 6.3% 2 15.5% 1 32.9%India 11 2.0% 5 4.2% 2 16.0%France 6 4.6% 7 3.3% 3 5.5%Russia 12 1.9% 9 2.4% 4 5.4%United Kingdom 5 4.8% 6 3.7% 5 5.2%Germany 4 6.1% 4 4.3% 6 3.8%Italy 7 3.6% 10 2.3% 7 3.2%Japan 2 9.1% 3 5.2% 8 3.0%Spain 9 2.5% 12 1.8% 9 1.9%United States 1 26.7% 1 22.8% 10 1.8%Brazil 10 2.3% 8 2.6% NA NACanada 8 2.6% 11 2.2% NA NA

Subtotal top economies 72.5% 70.3% 78.7%

Notes: Adjusted for purchase power parity.Sources: Angus Maddison's The World Economy (1820); ERS, USDA (2008, 2030)

Page 21: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Gold

Page 22: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Long-Term Gold Prices & the Recent Price Surge

7071727374767677787979808182828384848586868787878888898990909191929393949595969697979899999900010102020203030304040405050506060606070707070809090909090909100

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0

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1,000

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The Price of GoldWeekly Average London PM Fix, 5 March 2010

$ / Ounce $ / Ounce

000000 01010101 0202020202020202 03030303030303030303 04040404040404 050505050505050505 060606060606060606 070707070707070707 08080808 09090909090909090909090909090909200

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The Price of GoldWeekly Average London PM Fix, 5 March 2010

$ / Ounce $ / Ounce

10

Page 23: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Investment Demand’s Effect on Gold Prices

66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

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120Million Ounces Percent

Percent Change in Price

Net Investment Demand (left scale)

Investment Demand's Effect on Gold Prices Price Change Through February 2010

Page 24: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Gold As a Percentage of Financial Assets

1968 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Percent Percent

Gold as a Percent of Global Financial Assets

Page 25: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Official Transactions

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10p

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0

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0

10

20

30

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Net Purchases

Net Sales

Official Transactions

Page 26: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Monthly Official Transactions

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Gross Purchases

Gross Sales

Net Sales/Purchases

Central Bank Changes In Gold Holdings in 2009Excludes China's Purchases, and Indian and IMF Transactions

Page 27: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Central Bank and Investor Gold Holdings

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Million Ounces

Central Bank Gold Holdings and Investor Gold Holdings

Million Ounces

Central Bank Holdings

Investor Gold Holdings

Page 28: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Annual Total Supply

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

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0

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120

130Million Ounces

Secondary Supply

Other Mine Production

South African Mine Production

Million Ounces

Transitional Economies

10p

Annual Total SupplyProjected Through 2010

Page 29: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

The Price of Gold and Cash Operating Costs of Production

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090

100

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1,000

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0

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1,000

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Gold

Cash Costs

$/Ounce $/Ounce

The Price of Gold and Cash Operating Costs of Production

Page 30: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Annual Total Demand

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

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110Million Ounces

Jewelry, Developing Countries

Dental

Jewelry, Developed Countries

Million Ounces

Annual Total DemandProjected Through 2010

Other

Electronics

10p

Page 31: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Silver

Page 32: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Long-Term Silver Prices & the Recent Price Surge

00 010101 020202020202 0303030303 04040404 050505050505050505050505 060606060606060606 0707070707070707070707070707070707070707070708080808 0909090909090909090909090909090909090909090909090909090910101010102

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$/Ounce

$/Ounce

The Price of SilverWeekly Average Comex, Through 5 March 2010

$/Ounce

7576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506070809100

5

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0

5

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The Price of Silver Monthly Average Comex, Through February 2010$/Ounce $/Ounce

Page 33: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Daily Silver Prices

Jan-05 Jun-05 Dec-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Feb-106

7

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18

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21

22$/Ounce $/Ounce

Daily Silver Prices

Through 8 March 2010

Page 34: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Investors Continue to Buy High Volumes of Silver

• Net buying or selling by investors always has been the major driver behind price increases and decreases.

• Net investment demand could reached 175.1 million ounces last year.

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-250.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0.00

2.50

5.00

7.50

10.00

12.50

15.00

17.50

20.00

22.50

25.00Million Ounces $/Ounce

Price

Net Changes in In-ventories (left scale)

Silver Market Balance

Page 35: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Silver Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance

• Fabrication demand rose from the early 1980s to 2000, but has dropped steadily since 2000.

• Supply lagged into the middle of the 1990s, but then started rising sharply.

• From the early 1990s through 2005 silver from investor holdings filled the gap between demand and supply.6

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10p

200

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200

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700

800

900

Supply

Fabrication Demand

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Silver Supply and Demand Balance

Page 36: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Estimated Total Silver Bullion Inventories

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10p

0

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800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400Million Ounces Million Ounces

Estimated Total Silver Bullion Inventories

Page 37: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Annual Total Supply

• Total supply is estimated to have been 813.0 million ounces last year.

• This year total supply could rise to 849.6 million ounces.

• Both mine production and secondary supply are expected to rise.

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

100

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0

100

200

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Secondary

Mine Production

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Net Exports from Tran. Econ.

Government Disposals

Annual Total Silver Supply

Page 38: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Estimated Silver Production Additions

2010 2011 2012 20130

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Million Ounces Million Ounces

Estimated Silver Production Additions

As of October 2009

Page 39: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Silver Mine Production

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10p

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000Million Ounces Million Ounces

Peru

Mexico

ChinaAustralia

Mine Production in Mexico, Peru, Australia, and China

Page 40: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Cash Cost of Silver

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16 Cash Cost per Ounce Cash Cost per Ounce

Average Cash Cost

Annual Average Silver Price

Primary Silver Mines Cash Cost and Average Silver Price

3.8%

12.0%

14.1%

15.2%

15.4%

21.2%

58.3%

62.0%

62.5%

66.2%

68.8%

70.9%

74.4%

85.5%

86.9%

90.7%

99.2%

100.0%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00Cash Cost per Ounce Cash Cost per Ounce

Average Silver Price (First 3Q2009) = $13.19

Average Cash Cost = $5.70

Primary Silver Mines Cash Cost

First three Quarters 2009

Page 41: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Silver Reserves and Reserve Base

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Reserves

Reserve Base

Silver Reserves and Reserve Base

Source: USGS, CPM Group

Page 42: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Annual Total Fabrication Demand

• Fabrication demand is projected to rise to 642.1 million ounces this year.

• Fabrication demand is estimated to have been 637.9 million ounces in 2009.

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

100

200

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1000

0

100

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400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Other Uses

Other Countries

Electronics

Jewelry and Silverware

Photography

Imports into the Transitional Economies

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Annual Total Demand

Super ConductorsBiocides

10p

Page 43: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Jewelry and Silverware Demand

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

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0

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350

U.S.

Europe

Other Countries

Japan

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Jewelry and Silverware Demand

10p

Page 44: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Photographic Demand

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

U.S.

Japan

Europe

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Other Countries

Photographic Demand

10p

Page 45: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Electronics and Batteries

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

U.S.

Europe

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Other Countries

Japan

Electronics and Batteries

10p

Page 46: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Strong Investor Interest in Silver

Note: CEF-Central Fund of Canada traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. SLV-iShares Silver Trust traded on the American Stock Exchange. ZKB-Zurich Cantonal traded on the Swiss Exchange. ETF-ETF Securities traded on the London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and Australian Securities Exchange. Data as of 15 January 2010.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

ETF Australia

Series5

ZKB

ETF

SLV

CEF

Million

Ounces

MM Ozs

Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Silver Holdings

MM Ozs

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

0.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

U.S. Mint Silver Coin Sales

Ozs Ozs

Page 47: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Platinum Group Metals

Page 48: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Platinum Prices

60616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708090

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200$/Ounce

09

$/Ounce

Platinum Price 1960- Present

Monthly, Through February 2010

00 00 01 01 02 02 03 04 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 08 09 100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500$/Ounce $/Ounce

Platinum Price 2000- Present

Weekly, Through 5 March 2010

Page 49: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Platinum Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009e

2010p

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Demand

Supply

Thousand Ounces Thousand Ounces

Platinum Supply and Demand Balance

Page 50: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Platinum ETF Holdings

2007 2008 2009 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

PPLT - NYSE Platinum ZKB PHPT -LSE

Thousand Ounces

Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Platinum Holdings

Thousand Ounces

Page 51: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Palladium Prices

68697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607080910$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000$/Ounce $/Ounce

Palladium Price 1968-PresentMonthly, Through February 2010

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

$/Ounce $/Ounce

Palladium Price 2000-Present

Weekly Data, Through 5 March 2010

Page 52: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Palladium Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010p

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Thousand Ounces

Supply

Thousand Ounces

Demand

Palladium Supply and Demand Balance

Page 53: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Palladium ETF Holdings

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

PALL-NYSE Palladium ZKB PHPD -LSE

Thousand Ounces

Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Palladium Holdings

Thousand Ounces

Page 54: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Gold and Silver ETF Holdings: U.S. Market Share

Gold ETF Holdings United States : 70.1%

Gold ETF Holdings United States : 68%

Gold ETF Holdings Rest of World: 32%

GOLD

Silver ETF Holdings United States : 68%

Silver ETF Holdings Rest of World: 32%

SILVER

Page 55: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Global Vehicle Sales

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Thousand Vehicles Thousand Vehicles

Global Vehicle Sales

Page 56: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Precious Metals Yearbook launches

Gold Yearbook 27 April Silver Yearbook 11 May Platinum Group Metals Yearbook 22 June

Page 57: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Gold Yearbook Released on 27 April

CPM Group will be releasing the CPM Gold Yearbook 2010 on 27 April.

To obtain more information contact Adam Crown at 212.785.8320 or via e-mail at [email protected]  

Page 58: Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010

Thank You.

Jeffrey M. ChristianManaging [email protected]

30 Broad Street | 37th FloorNew York, NY 10004www.cpmgroup.com