prbo, climate change and the role of conservation in

PRBO, Climate Change and the Role of Conservation in Securing our Future

Ellie M. Cohen March, 2008

Earth Rise, Bill Anders, Apollo 8

One of first photos that we humans saw of our finite, blue and small planet.

PRBO Conservation Science

Through the burning of coal, oil and gas at power plants for electricity, driving our cars, trucks and transportation…


…and deforestation, especially in tropics, we have increased C02 in atmosphere beyond normal variability of past several hundred thousand years to permanently alter the future of life as we know it

In the simplest terms, the sun’s rays warm the earth and some heat escapes back into space. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and other gases prevent the heat from escaping back into space by trapping it like a huge blanket or greenhouse. It is what makes life on our planet possible.

But when the atmosphere thickens with more and more greenhouse gases– it traps more heat-- gets warmer and warmer.

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

300

500

400

600

180200220240260

280

Temp. in F°

CO

2 Concentration

Today’s CO2 Concentration ~386 ppm

Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel BurningProjected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning

British Antarctic Survey results: the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a critical greenhouse gas, is higher than it has been for at least 650,000 years. And the fastest significant increase occurred in just the past 17 years.

CO

2[p

pmv]

600,000 100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000

300

400

180200220

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260280

Temp. in C

°

1 -0 -

-2 --3 -

2 -

-4 -

-1 -

Graph: The Climate Project

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

300

500

400

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Temp. in C

°C

O2 C

oncentration

After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns- 600 ppmC

O2

[ppm

v]

1 -0 --1 --2 --3 -

2 -

-4 -

Today’s CO2 Concentration ~386 ppm

Graph: The Climate Project

Tom Van Sant for The Climate Project

The earth warmed by ~1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (F) during the past century andprojections range 3-12 F more over the next century. Arctic and Greenland are relatively small but have significant impact moderating Earth’s climate.

Record Breaking Loss of Sea Ice, September 16, 2007

Sea Ice ExtentSep 2005Sea Ice ExtentSep 2007

Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts NY Times October 2, 2007

Konrad Steffen, Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, 12-11-07

Greatest total ice melt on record

Photo: Roger J. Braithwaite,University of ManchesterSchool of Geology

GREENLAND

Increase in moulins-vertical shafts ofmelt water

Outlet glacier--speed doubled

over last decade

Antarctica

Peninsula--- ---Ross Ice Shelf



Adelie Penguins- PRBO research since 1972 at Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

© Tui de Roy/Minden Pictures

Winds = Sea Ice, Breeding SuccessWinners for now

Emperor and Adelie penguin populations face greater challenges in warmer West

Antarctica. See www.penguinscience.org.

Larsen Ice Shelf

January 31, 2002

Larsen Ice Shelf

January 31, 2002

Larsen Ice ShelfMarch 5, 2002Larsen Ice ShelfMarch 5, 2002

MODIS images courtesy of NASA's Terra satellite

Western Antarctica has warmed by about 5 degrees F in past few decades.

Wilkin’s Ice Shelf Breaking UpMarch 25, 2008

7x the size of Manhatten2 decades earlier than predicted in 1993

Wilkin’s Ice Shelf Breaking UpMarch 25, 2008

7x the size of Manhatten2 decades earlier than predicted in 1993

British Antarctic Survey

Land-based Ice Loss = Sea Level Rise

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

From NASA's QuikScat satellite-greatest austral summer snowmelt ever recorded; 140 subglacial lakes found as well

Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University

Glacier AX010, NepalJune 1978

August 2004

Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University

Glacier AX010, Nepal

Glacier melt acceleratingaround the globe

Glaciers of Tibetan Plateau predicted to be gone by 2050Feed fresh water rivers to 1.3 billion people

Warming Ocean and Lag Time

Hurricane Katrina forming, August, 2005

•Warmer ocean drives more intense weather•Vast surface layers of ocean means significant warming is in the “pipeline” even with no further CO2 emissions


Rate of Climate Change

CO2 into atmosphere – 3x faster

Arctic melting – 3x faster, 30 years earlierGreenland melting – 3x fasterGlaciers melting – 2x faster Antarctica melting -- faster

Sea level rise – 2x faster

IMPLICATIONS?Evidence of Accelerated Climate Change, Climate Institute, Nov. 15, 2007, Australia


Sea Level Rise, Coastal & River Flooding

•Some scientists now predict exceeding3 ft of sea level rise in the next few decades

•Results: coastal erosion. Destruction of wetlands


Intense, Deadly, Costly Precipitation

San Anselmo, CA, Jan. 1, 2006


Drought and Fires

CA Climate Change Center www.climatechange.ca.gov


70%- 90% loss of Sierra snow pack


•More precipitation as rain•Earlier snow melt•Major challenge to CA water managersand wildlife


Levee Failures, Manage Water

Upper Jones Tract Levee Break in the Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaDWR Website June 2004 12, 153 Acres, 6 months cleanup, $90m


Water Shortages


Water Storage


in biological diversity

IPCC 4th Assessment Final

Report Nov. 2007Edith’s Bay Checkerspot- local populations extinct

~20–30%species face extinction with 2.7 F increase

~40–70% with 6.3 F increase


Alpine Species -- Nowhere to Go

Pika or rock rabbit

• 1900- 7,800 ft

• 2004- 9,500 ft

• Functionally extinct (9 out of 25 populations in west already extinct).

UC Berkeley, Grinnell Project


Drought = No Breeding

–Sonoran Desert

Crissal Thrasher

PhainopeplaPRBO findings: 2006, 2007, longest droughts on record


Annual Variation in Nest Survival and SOI

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

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0.96

0.98

-5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0

So. Oscillation Index

Estim

ated

Dai

ly N

est

Surv

ival

Nest survivalpredicted by SOI

Model-adustedestimates by year

El Nino = Breeding Success

Song Sparrows-Cosumnes River

Low nest surival in El Nino years;More El Nino like years predicted.Implications?

PRBO Conservation SciencePossible Explanations

Earlier Spring Arrivals = ?

~ 2/3 have changes in arrival dates due to climate

Mismatch in timing between birds and food?

MacMynowski et al., Global Change Biology, 2007

Western Kingbird

Barn Swallow

Black-headed Grosbeak

Findings of Stanford University and PRBO


Seabird Breeding Failure – lack of available food due to high variability in ocean conditions

0.000.250.500.751.001.251.50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cassin’s Auklet reproductive success

Farallon National Wildlife Refuge- research by PRBO in partnership with USFWS

PRBO Conservation ScienceOther animals that also rely on krill:

Blue whales and krill swarms in Monterey Bay

Salmon

People

Puffin


The future of salmon?

“Feds warn entire salmon season could be halted”March 12, 2008

San Francisco Chronicle


PRBO Photo by Ellie M. CohenCorte Madera, CA Nov 2007


Bottom line:Humans Rely on Healthy Ecosystems

•Food•Freshwater•Wood and Fiber•Fuel

•Recreational•Educational•Spiritual

•Climate•Flood•Disease•Water quality


CHALLENGE: How to maintain biodiversity and healthy ecosystems during rapid change?

• Kick the carbon habit• Make protecting ecosystems an equal priority


Global Change

Habitat degradation, biodiversity loss, loss of genetic diversity, increase in non-native species –

are all exacerbated by Climate Change

PRBO Strategy: Focal or Indicator Species

and Ecosystem approach


PRBO’s Climate Change Initiativewww.prbo.org/climatechange

1- Predict changes in distribution, phenology, community structure; build on unique long term data sets

2- Develop “Early Warning” Systems to detect oncoming “thresholds”

3- Guide resource managers to enhance ecosystem resiliency, delay thresholds, soften transitions, link habitats, assist species shifts

4- Conduct monitoring to evaluate, improve (adaptive mgmt.)

5- Disseminate findings to partners, funders, policymakers, e.g., web-based tools, Climate Change Bird Conservation Plan, etc.

PRBO Conservation ScienceIdentify food web “hotspots” for protectionto ease transition to new ecological community

Black Footed Albatross

Cordell Bank


Web-based Decision Support Tools- where to site Protected Areas in state & federal waters

www.prbo.org/sefimap


Prioritize Wetland Conservation

Bar-tailed Godwit with satellite tagYK Delta, Alaska

Bar-tailed Godwit – satellite tagSite Connectivity of Migrating Western Sandpipers

San Francisco

Grays Harbor

YK Delta

?

Copper River


Predict Future Wetlands for Protection

Assumptions:•1m sea level rise• Increased salinity

Northern SF Bay DeltaAssumptions:1 m sea level rise, increased salinity

• SEQUESTER carbon• SUSTAIN fish, birds• CLEAN water by filtering out pollutants• REDUCE flood andsea level rise impacts


Where will birds occur?

current 100 years later

Predict future bird and habitat distribution


Cosumnes Preserve

Restore Riparian = Water + Wildlife

Yellow Warbler

In Central Valley-Current : ~110,000 acres

Next 5 Years Goal: 10,000 morePotential: +800,000 more acres

(Central Valley Joint Venture 2006 Implementation Plan)

Increase “ecosystem services:”•Reduce flood damage•Replenish ground water•Filter our pollutants•Provide habitat for fish and birds


Example:Napa River – 40% completed, working!

Napa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District


Develop Climate Change Conservation Plans

California Bird Species

of FUTURE Conservation Concern


Australia– wildlife corridor across continent


South Coast WildlandsBeier, et al, South Coast Missing Linkages, 2005

California: South Coast wildlife corridor


SUMMARY

• Climate change is accelerating

• “The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost.” (IPCC, Nov 2007)

• Reduce CO2 and implement conservation now


Support PRBO’s Climate Change Initiative

$3.5 million – FY 2008-2011

WHAT YOU CAN DO:


WHAT YOU CAN DO


Hansen: 350 PPM CO2

• Stop new coal plants w/o carbon capture technology

• Phase out coal CO2 emissions to get to 1988 levels of CO2 By 2025 in developed countries; 2030 in developing countries

• Increase price of carbon; invest in clean energy solutions

• Increase CO2 sequestration– nature conservation, soil,

• Reduce other greenhouse gases

Based on new goals recommended byDr. James Hansen, Director,NASA Space Institute, January 2008http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/


You Have the Power- Australia

www.sustainability.vic.gov.auWhat if we could see our greenhouse gas emissions, as we did in theSF Bay oil spill in November, 2007?


EDUCATE our Future Leaders!

BHDS kindergarten visit to PRBOMarch, 2008


THANK YOU!

PRBO scientists, support staff, Board, members, and:American Bird Conservancy

AnonymousS.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management

California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game

California Bay Delta AuthorityCalifornia AudubonCalifornia Seagrant

Central Valley Joint VentureCornell Lab of Ornithology

DMARLOU FoundationRichard Grand Foundation

Giles Mead FoundationMoore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation

David and Lucile Packard FoundationNational Fish and Wildlife Foundation

National Science FoundationNOAA Fisheries, Marine Sanctuaries

Natural Resource Conservation ServiceResources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund Foundation

Riparian Habitat Joint VentureSan Francisco Bay Joint Venture

The Climate Project/ Al GoreThe Nature Conservancy

U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUSDA Forest Service

prbo, climate change and the role of conservation in

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