Arild AngelsenAssociate Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

(UMB), Ås, Norway &Senior Associate, Center for International Forestry Research

(CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia &Visiting scholar, University of Western Australia, Perth

arild.angelsen@umb.no

Practical experiences on policies and incentives to reduce

deforestation in dev. countries (& getting the basics right)

UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON REDUCING EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 7 - 9 March, 2007, Cairns, Australia

Why are policies and incentives important?

Problems of local baseline, leakage and additionality

Hard to set national baseline (& monitor change)

Cons

Easier to deal with more localized effects

Broad & country-specific policies applied

Pros

Key to identify P&I, develop criteria & measure impact

For agreement: Only indirect: countries choose best P&I. Advisory role?

Role of P&I

Measurement of change

Key issues

Example

Approach CDMMain Kyoto

Assessing net impact: Baselines, leakage, additionality.

Setting baselines at national (regional) level! Hot air vs. acceptability

At different scales, and for specific P&I

At national level

Policies & incentives (P&I)National targets

Deforestation

A deforestation framework(Kaimowitz and Angelsen 1998)

Agents of deforestation (choices)

Decision variables (e.g,. prices)

Institutions Infrastructure Markets Tech.

Macro level variables and policy instruments

Sources

Immediate causes

Underlying causes

Some implicationsThe importance of knowing at which level we are in the analysis/discussion

“Defor caused by agric expansion, inappropriate technologies, misguided macroeconomic policies and foreign debt”

Must link land users’ decisions (decision parameters) with policy variables, and be consistent

“Defor caused by poverty and devaluation that made agric more profitable”

Increasingly difficult to predict deforestation effects as move down to underlying causes

A major challenge for making general policy recommendations!

The forest transitionForest cover

Time

1. Triggers(road)

2. Reinforcing loops (localdemand, infrastr, capitalaccum, pop dynamics)

3. Stabilizing loops(off-farm jobs, GE effects, forest scarcity)

4.Forest/plantations/ agric. mosaics

1.Undisturbed forests

3.Forest/agric.mosaics

2.Forest frontiers

What’s driving the FT?(Rudel et al 2005; Angelsen 2007)

A von Thünen (1826) framework: 1. land use determined by land rent/profit (highest win)2. rent depends on location (distance from centre)

Stage 2: agric rent ↑Stage 3-4:

1. Economic development path (ag rent↓)2. Forest scarcity path (forest rent ↑)

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3-4

Agric. rent

Forest rent

$

Km (ha)

Key policy implications

1. How to slow down increase in agric rent?Don’t make frontier agric more profitable

2. How to speed up the economic development and thereby slow down agric rent?

Create alternative employment3. How to speed up/induce forest scarcity

Create markets for forest products (but careful)

Difficulties in using policies1. Defor the aggregate outcome of decisions made

by millions of land users, responding to profitable opportunities for forest conversion

profitability is determined by underlying causes, which are not easy to apply as policies made on non-forest considerations (e.g., exchange rate)

2. Often a trade-off between poverty reduction & forest conservation

win-lose appears to be the rule rather than exception (agric prices, roads)

3. Defor in remote ‘state-less’ or ‘state-thin’ placesregulations and enforcement difficult/ineffective high transaction costs

1. Conservation areas (example: Uganda)

Very good economic performance (5-7 % pa)Population growth: 3.4 % pa24 % forest cover

70 % privateDeforestation in 1990s: 2.45 % pa

Agoro-Agu Sector

Apac Sector

Chwero Sector

Kilak Sector

Lira Sector

Nangolibwel Sector

Pader Sec tor

Zulia Sector

Achwa River Range

NFA Range boundary

Administrative boundary

International boundary

District boundary

Swamp

Open Water

Hill Reserves Sector

Kagadi Sector

Kaniyo-Pabidi Sector

Kasongoire Sector

Kisindi Sector

Lubenge River Sector

Nyakafunjo Sector

Budongo System Range

Alungamosimosi Sector

Bunya Sector

Jinja Sector

Kadam Sector

Pingire Sector

West Bugwe Sector

Namatale Sector

Mt. Moroto Sector

Kyoga Range

Bugala Sector

Kumbu Sector

Lwamunda Sector

Lwankima Sector

Mpanga Sector

Sango Bay Sector

Zirimiti Sector

Lakeshore Range

Itwara Sector

Kasana-Kasambya Sector

Matiri Sector

Mwenge Sector

Singo Hills Sector

Muzizi River Range

Kalinzu Sector

Kasyoha-Kitomi Sector

Bugamba Sector

Mafuga Sector

Mbarara Plantations Sector

South West Range

Mt. Kei Sector

Okavu-Reru Sector

Otzi Sector

Pakwach Sector

Maracha Sector

Zoka Sector

West Nile Range

Kyoga Range

Achwa River Range

Lakeshore Range

Muzizi River Range

West Nile Range

South Western Range

Budongo System Range

MUKONO

BUGIRIMAYUGE

AMURU

KALANGALA

MASINDI

ABIM

HOIMA

BILIISA

KAABONG

KOTIDO

MOROTO

KITGUM

RAKAI

ADJUMANI

MASAKA

ARUA

KIBOGA

WAKISO

YUMBE

APAC

NAKASEKE

PADER

NAKAPIRIPIRIT

LIRA

MPIGI

GULU

BUKWA

BUSHENYI

BUNDIBUGYO

KUMI

MOYO

KASESE

NEBBI

KIRUHURA

SOROTI

KATAKWI

KIBAALE

KOBOKO

PALLISA

MUBENDE

SEMBABULE

OYAM

KYENJOJO

ISINGIRO

KAMWENGE

AMOLATAR

AMURIA

KAMULI

NAKASONGOLA

MARACHA_TEREGO

SIRONKO

LUWEERO

RUKUNGIRIKANUNGU

KABAROLE

KAPCHORWA

KAYUNGAMANAFWA

JINJA

KABALE

TORORO

KABERAMAIDO

IBANDA

KISORO

DOKOLO

KALIRO BUDAKA

NTUNGAMO

MBARARA

MITYANA

BUSIA

MBALE

IGANGA

BUTALEJANAMUTUMBA

KAMPA- LA

Zulia Sector

Kisindi Sector

Mt. Kei Sector

Kadam Sector

Otzi Sector

Mt. Moroto Sector

Kalinzu Sector

Pader Sector

Itwara SectorLwankima Sector

Kagadi Sector

Agoro-Agu Sector

Bunya Sector

Kasyoha-Kitomi Sector

Kilak Sector

Kumbu Sector

Nangolibwel Sector

Singo Hills Sector

Zoka Sector

Apac Sector

Matiri Sector

Sango Bay Sector

Lira Sector

Bugamba Sector

Nyakafunjo Sector

Hill Reserves Sector

Lubenge River Sector

Mpanga Sector

Lwamunda Sector

Kaniyo-Pabidi Sector

Mwenge Sector

Chwero Sector

Maracha Sector

Kasongoire Sector

Kasana-Kasambya Sector

Mafuga Sector

Alungamosimosi Sector

Jinja Sector

Zirimiti Sector

West Bugwe Sector

Okavu-Reru Sector

Bugala Sector

Mbarara Plantations Sector

Pingire Sector

Namatale Sector

Pakwach Sector

Zulia

Moroto

Mt. Kei

Kadam

Bugoma

Mabira

Agoro-Agu

Napak

Timu

Rom

Kasyoha-Kitomi

Kilak

Kagombe

Kalinzu

Otzi (East)

Taala

Kikonda

NangolibwelKano

Itwara

Kibeka

North Maramagambo

Akur

Nyangea-Napore

Rwoho

Zoka

Ogi li

Alerek

South Busoga

Kasagala

Era

Matiri

Budongo

Iyi

Luwunga

Lwala

Buyaga Dam

Maruzi

Mujuzi

Opi t

Kazooba

Malabigambo

Luku

Namwasa

Bajo

Jubiya

Morongole

Kyahi

Nsowe

Wiceri

Bujawe

Achwa River

South Maramagambo

Kapimpini

Lwamunda

Kafu

Kitechura

Bukaleba

Kagorra

Kyalwamuka

Kyamazzi

Laura

Kalombi

Kamusenene

Kasolo

Wankweyo

Kiula

Katuugo

Navugulu

Kachung

Mukihani

Lalak

Kifu

Ibambaro

Kasato

Kyalubanga

Lendu

Nawandigi

Omier

Echuya

Abiba

Bwezigolo-Gunga

Nyamakere

Lamwo

Kabwika-Mujwalanganda

Kaiso

Wabisi-Wajala

Wambabya

Nyakarongo

Alungamosimosi

Kisombwa

Kasana-Kasambya

Towa

Mafuga

Parabongo

Mpinve

Namalala

Labala

Olwal

Kanangalo

Kijanebalola

Ating

Wamale

West BugweIgwe

North Rwenzori

Kasa

Tero (West)

Muhangi

Otukei

Mubuku

Mbale

AveAbera

Got-Gweno

Lokung

Busowe

Atigo

Kijuna

Gala

Kibego

Kaweri

Namatiwa

Wati

Lotim-Puta

Kabindo

Ayipe

Katabalalu Namanve

Kasongoire

Gangu

Guramwa

Amuka

Ruzaire

Keyo

Alui

Nakalanga

Butamira

Kyampisi

Kandanda-Ngobya

Zirimiti

Goyera

Buvuma

Eria

Usi

Liru

Nsube

Natyonko

Ogom

Kadre

Zimwa

Bugamba

Nkera

Mugoye

Bukaibale

Kisisita

Kitonya

Kakasi

Muinaina

Nonve

Ozubu

Enjeva

Kulua

Luvunya

Buhungiro

Lopeicubei

Nfuka-Magobwa

Opok

Kagogo

Lusiba

Pingire

NakizaMwola

Tero (East)

Ngereka

Kanaga

Tumbi

Otrevu

Kikumiro

Kakonwa

Akileng

Bugondo Hil l

Suru

Bira

Sirisiri

Nakalere

Musamya

Namatale

Semunya

Kaduku

Buyenvu

Sala

Iziru

Ihimbo

Lubani

Mugomba

Wadelai

Kahurukobwire

Mpanga

Kyansonzi

Buwa

Nadagi

Nimu

Rukara

Alit

Luleka

Enyau

Jumbi

Lomej

Kihaimira

Sitambogo

Acet

Kizinkuba

Lukale

Kyehara

Nile Bank

Ajupane

Bulondo

Namavundu

Buwanzi

Oruha

Luwafu

Koja

Sozi

Ayami

East Uru

Olia

Fumbya

Nakwaya

Irimbi

Telwa

Kabukira

Buga

Nabanga

Kitasi

Buuka

Arua

Lagute

Rwensambya

Madoci

Obel

Aloro

Mutai

Achwali

Bugonzi

Epor

Kisasa

Kinyo

Kigona River

Nyakunyu

Ayito

Kalandazi

Nyabiku

Kisangi

Koko

Ajuka

Nyabigoye

Luwawa

Olamusa

Muhunga

Mburamaizi

Abuje

Arweny

Awer

Buluku

Ogera Hill

Bululu Hi ll

Namyoya

Kagwara

Kajansi

Kasala

Adero

Ibamba

Lutoboka

Bundikeki

Kafumbi

Atiya

Lufuka

Matidi

Buloba

Kyahaiguru

Bufumira

Kigulya Hill

Acwao

Otzi (West)

Kigona

Nkogwe

Kijwiga

Lul Oming

Kyamurangi

Nanfuka

Kijogolo

Nakuyazo

Ilera

Okavu-Reru

Bugusa

Lukalu

Paonyeme

Lira

Kalangalo

Ojwiting

Degeya

Sambwa

Ochomil

Rwensama

Musoma

Opaka

Ogata-Akimenga

Rwengeye

Muko

Mwiri

West Uru

Abunga

Ongom

Lul Opio

Wantayi

Oliduro

Aneneng

Aminkec

Bugomba

Mako

Banga

Odudui

Gweri

Funve

Kachogogweno

Ochomai

Aram

Gung-Gung

Lukolo

Onekokeo

Kasenyi

Aminakulu

Okurango

Wabitembe

Kuzito

Kateta

Kyewaga

Paj imu

Aminteng

Awang

Kubanda

Angutewere

Walumwanyi

Lukodi

Kyantuhe

Achuna

Dakabela

Atungulo

Kifunvwe

Wabinyomo

Namatembe

Nkose

Bugana

Apworocero

Gulu

Onyurut

Buturume

Kabuye

Ocamo-Lum

Kabango-Muntandi

Kabira

Bulijjo

Wantagalala

Bukone

Kaliro

Namazingiri

Bumude-Nchwanga

Rwengiri

Anyara

Abuya

Mataa

Mukambwe

Wamasega

Nakitondo

Lobajo

Nabukonge

Kavunda

Kamera

Namasiga-Kidimbuli

Bugaali

Tororo

Kabale

Gwengdiya

Kasonke

Nakunyi

Kampala

Lukuga

Naludugavu

Nyaburongo

Nakindiba

Mbarara

Kyabona

Kagongo

Nakwiga

Walugondo

MonikakineiKabugeza (Kasanda)

BuzigaMulega

Nyabyeya

Lodonga

Along-Kongo

Tonde

Budunda

Namabowe

Lemutome

Bunjazi

Lokiragodo

Soroti

Walulumbu

Namafuma

Kitemu

Lul Kayonga

Manwa (South East)

Izinga Island

Kasokwa

Nagongera (West)

KalagalaFalls

Linga

Kimaka

Kasozi

Kumi

Lajabwa

Bikira

Namasagali

Fort Portal

Makoko

Wangu

Namalemba

Alito

Katakwi

Kaniabizo

Bwambara

Buwaiswa

Kumbu (South)

Aringa River

Pokoli

Bugiri

Ngogwe (Bwema Island)

Rukungiri

Ngeta

Luwungulu

Tebakoli

Ogur

Walugogo

Aboke

Kagadi

Bukedea

Bukakata

Ntungamo

Busembatya

Bobi

Aduku (South)

Bulogo

Nkese

Abili

Apac

Aduku (North)

Bala (South)

Ayer (Lira Road)

Rugongi

Kapchorwa

Ayer (Bala Road)

Sekazinga

Nsekuro Hill

Kagogo

Kande

Mbale

Mas indi

Kitonya Hill

Lake Kyoga

Lake Victoria

Lake

Albert

Lake Edward

Lake George

Masege

Kalandazi

Kanjaza

Kajonde

Kyirira

Mulundu

<Empty Picture>

N

100 0 100 200 Kilometers

Scale 1 : 800,000

CENTRAL FOREST RESERVES BY RANGES AND SECTORSNATIONAL FORESTRY AUTHORITY

Are parks and reserves effective?(Babigumira and Angelsen 2007)

Yes!Strong enforcement

Methods to measure netimpacts:

Passive protection (parks in remote areas?)Leakage (more clearing outside)

1.2

2.813.25 3.32

3.65

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Inside 0-0.5 0.5-1 1-5 5-10

Deforestation rates 1990-2000 (% pa).Inside parks and reserves and in bufferzones (km)

2. Community forest management

Agric. rent

Forest rent w/local benefits

Distance (d)

Forest rent w/local & global benefitsG

C

dG dOdC

Communities taking local forestbenefits into account in theirdecisions on forest conversion

Payment for forest services (PES), or government regulation

$

Does CFM work?Emerging consensus:

Relatively successful in forest conservationRelatively unsuccessful in raising forest incomeEx. Malawi & Nepal: Higher forest income for non-members

Why?Driven by a conservation (& cost saving) agendaThe valuable stuff (timber) not handed to local communitiesAn incomplete reform

Policies?More authorityGet timber rights? Link to other benefits

3. Land tenure: a critical distinction1. Degree of (exogenous)

tenure insecurityTenure security promotes

higher investments and long term thinking:Tree plantingLand improvements

Good for forest!

2. How land rights are acquired

Deforestation an investment and a means to acquire and/or strengthen land rights.

Higher tenure security promotes deforestation!

• Land reforms to enhance tenure security often promotes both cutting and planting of trees!

• Depends on stage in forest transition: 2. effect dominate early in the transition

4. New agric technologiesKey questions to assess impact:

Does it make agric conversion of forest more profitable? Does it change the means (access to labour and capital) of land users to clear forest?

Critical factors for the impact of tech change on deforestation (Angelsen and Kaimowitz 2001)

Reduced Impact on deforestation Increased

Intensive (high) Labour and capital intensity Saving (low)Constrained (subs.) Farmer characteristics Well-off Local Output market Global Yield increasing Technology Cost saving Local, segmented Labour market Mobile labour

(migration)Intensive (lowland) Sectors experiencing tc. Frontier areas

(upland)Global Scale of adoption LocalShort-term Time horizon of analysis Long term

Examples of good and bad (for defor) agric technologies Agric technologies → more deforestation

Commodity booms (banana, sugar, cocoa, palm oil, soy bean)Livestock intensification in Latin America (casual effect reverse: the potentially forest saving technologies only adopted when forests are gone))New technologies for frontier agric (possibly also agroforestry, e.g., rubber in Sumatra, Indonesia)

Agric technologies → less deforestationIrrigated, lowland agriculture, e.g. Green RevolutionTechnologies for intensive systems, when farmers also involved in extensive ones, e.g., more intensive maize production vs. chitemene in Southern Africa

Concluding remarksForest transition as a useful framework to understand (stages of) deforestation and policy choice:

agric rent providing alternativesinduce forest scarcity

Hard to state generally even qualitatively the defor impact of policies & incentives, let alone quantify the impact. Also highly country-specific.

If P&I approach: Focus on direct projects and specific policies,e.g., conservation areas (like A&R under CDM); cannot include broader (and more forceful policies)An argument for a national target approach, but requires national baselines and good inventories and monitoring