Presented atThe Aspen Global Change Institute

June 5 - 10, 2003 Summer Science Session I

“Learning from Regions: A Comparative Appraisal ofClimate, Water, and Human Interactions in the Colorado and

Columbia River Systems”

Stewart CohenUniversity of British Columbia

Water Management & Climate Changein the Okanagan Region, Canada:Highlights from Interim Report

Water Management & ClimateChange in the Okanagan Region,Canada: Highlights from Interim

ReportStewart Cohen,

Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, EnvironmentCanada;

Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability,University of British Columbia

Presented at Aspen Global Change Institute June 7, 2003

Okanagan Climate Change & WaterManagement Study Team

• Stewart Cohen – Adaptation & Impacts Research Group-EC, Institutefor Resources Environment & Sustainability-UBC, Vancouver

• Denise Neilsen, Scott Smith, Grace Frank, Walter Koch – PacificAgricultural Research Centre-AAFC, Summerland

• Younes Alila, Wendy Merritt – Forest Resources Management, UBC• Mark Barton, Roger McNeill, Bill Taylor – Pacific & Yukon

Region-EC• Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, Jeff Carmichael, James Tansey –

Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability, UBC• Brian Symonds, B.C. MoWLAP, Penticton

Thanks to Andrew Reeder, City of Summerland; Toby Pike, Water Supply Association for their assistance to the study team.Supported by a grant from the Climate Change Action Fund (#A463/433), Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa.

Water Resources in the Okanagan BasinPart of the Columbia Basin, British Columbia

•Area = 8200 km2

•Okanagan Valley = 160 km in length•Population = 530,000 (1999 approx.); 13municipalities, 3 regional districts, 4 FirstNation communities, 59 “improvementdistricts”•Agriculture: 2278 farms, 78,300 ha (3%decrease since 1976 due to urbanization)•Summer & winter tourism•Forestry: >4 million m3/year

Source: Cohen and Kulkarni (2001); mapfrom Alan Hamlet (U. Washington)

Okanagan-SimilkameenBritish Columbia

Columbia Basin

CANADA------------U.S.A.

Water Management & Climate Change inthe Okanagan, British Columbia

Meteorological stations andunregulated watersheds usedin calibration and testing of theUBC Watershed Model in theOkanagan Basin, BritishColumbia.Kelowna

Osoyoos

Vernon

Penticton

Ellis Reservoir

Whiteman Creek

Vaseux Creek

CANADA---------U.S.A.

Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management

Water Management & Climate Change inthe Okanagan—Study Framework, 2002-04

Dialogue 2000-01•Climate change IS92a•Hydrology: 6 creeks•Regional developmentcontext•Focus groups

•Adaptation optionslist

Crop Water Demand2000-01•General estimate for SouthOkanagan

Okanagan PIA Framework

Expanded Dialogue2002-04•Climate change--SRES•Surface hydrology

•Whole basin•Crop water demand

•Major crops•Land use change scenarios•Water supply & demandscenarios•Water institutions

•Irrigators•Early adopters

•Adaptation cost options•General estimates

•Focus groups•Implementation ofadaptation options

Proposed PIA2004-06•Climate change—MonteCarlo simulations

•Variability,extremes

•Hydrology—whole cycle•Surface•Groundwater•Land disturbance

•Crop water demand•Update

•Fisheries impacts•Adaptation cost options

•Subregionalestimates

•Regional water policy•Interactive dialogue onadaptation

•STELLA software•Posters•Project website

Structure of the UBC Watershed Model (Quick, 1995). This isa ‘semi-distributed’model in which thewatershed is split intoelevation bands

Winter Season (DJF) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o

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Climate ChangeScenarios for 50 °N,

120°W

CGCM2 A21

CGCM2 B21

CSIROMk2 A21

CSIROMk2 B21

HadCM3 A22

HadCM3 B22

Legend

Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 A2

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Whiteman Ck: CSIRO A2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2

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Base & scenariomean seasonalflow volumes atEllis Reservoir

Canada---------U.S.A.

Canada---------U.S.A.

Okanagan Basin Licensed Consumptive Quantity by Purpose

48%27%

4% 2%

19%

Irrigation Local AuthIrrigationWaterworks Local AuthWaterworks (Other)Other

Total licensed consumptive quantity = 476.8 million m3

Source data: Land and Water BC, Water License Query. Accessed July 4, 2002

Okanagan Basin Allocation for Consumptive Purposes.Total allocation = 1.05 billion m3. Number of streams ‘fully recorded’ = 235 of 300.

0

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880 960 1040 1120 1200mm crop water demand

no. years

/100 y

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Average annual crop water demand 1916-2002 1026 1961-90 872 2020's *1015 2050's *1119 2080's *1239 * Estimates CGCM1

Frequency distribution 1916-2002 Centred on estimated 2050’s average

Crop water demand for hypothetical hectare of apple at Summerland, for historical and 2050ʼs scenario climate.

Costs of Adaptation Options in the Okanagan Cost (CAN$/acre-ft.) Water saved or supplied

Irrigation scheduling: -large holdings $500 10%

-small holdings 835 10%

Trickle irrigation: -high demand areas 1500 30%

-medium demand areas 1666 30%

Metering: -lowest cost 1882 30%

-higher cost 2300-3400 20-30%

Public education: -large & medium communities 835 10%

Leak detection: -average 1567 10-15%

Storage: -lowest cost 600 limited

-medium-high cost 1000-1500 limited

Lake pumping: -lowest cost 648 0-100%

-low cost (no balancing) 1160 0-100%

-higher cost 2200-2700 0-100%

1 acre-ft. = 1233.5 m3; 1 m3 = 1000 litres

Adaptation is embedded withinthe local context

Early Adopters Case Studies

• Kelowna—domestic water metering• Vernon – water reclamation program• South East Kelowna Irrigation District

(SEKID) – metering, scheduling andeducational activities for irrigators

• Greater Vernon Water Utility –amalgamation of Armstrong, Vernon,Coldstream & NORD

Factors that Influence AdaptationDecision Making

• Drivers—population & development pressures, funds orregulations from other levels of government, internalconcerns, etc.

• Enabling factors – staff/management/political interest,previous experience (e.g. pilots), etc.

• Barriers – costs, attitudes, control, acceptance, etc.• Obstacles – attitudes, communication problems, who pays,

etc.• Conflict resolution – education, incentives, scientific

evidence/information, comfortablegovernance/management structure, etc.

Lessons from Early AdoptersCase Studies

• Signal detection and evaluation (does the‘signal’ mean that there is a ‘problem’?)

• Access to funds• Desire to act; a local champion• Initial conditions (e.g. state of finances,

local awareness)

Next Steps?

• Complete crop water demand projections• Focus group sessions to consider potential

adaptation portfolio, and its implementation– Homogeneous groups during fall 2003– Heterogeneous groups during winter 2003-04

• Interim Report available at SDRI-UBC site:http://www.sdri.ubc.ca

• Final report to be released summer 2004