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Peak District

Annual Think Tank Event

Thursday 13 December 2018

Buxton Dome


Health and Wellbeing of

the 0-19 Population in

High Peak and

Derbyshire Dales

Jo Brown

Programme Leader for the Master of Public Health


This connection between early life experiences and the health of a nation underscores the importance of strategic investments in the care and protection of pregnant women, infants, and young children, and it suggests that most current attempts to prevent adult disease and create a healthier workforce may be starting too late.”

The National Scientific Council on the Developing Child; National Forum on Early childhood policy and programs (2010)


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

Percentage of Population

Age

Population Pyramid : Mid-Year Projections2014 Females

2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

6.4 % decrease in this population

They will have a number of long term health issues if current incentives do not work

Attainment of qualifications at school will be poor and working options limited.

Development of poor health behaviours due to social issues and lack of educational attainment.

Hospital admissions for self harm, substance misuse and mental health issues


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+


Age


2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

Static population - increase in boys equals the decrease in girls

Health issues related to childhood obesity . Mental health issues as a consequence of bullying unless

obesity is the social norm.

Child carers looking after parents with long term conditions/mothers with lung cancer due to high levels

smoking.

Increase in mental health issues with children due to pressures of balancing school/home/social pressure.


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+


Age


2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

1% overall decrease

Children with long term health issues due to obesity if health promotion advice not heeded

Educational attainment will be affected by health of parents and health literacy will be affected as a

consequence

Social gradient as parents may not be working due to health issues or in poor paid jobs

Develop behaviours that last for life therefore key to promote health early and resilience assistance


Demographic change and what this

may mean for Health & Wellbeing of

the Peak District Population

13th December 2018Bev Munoz-Pujol, Public Health Locality Lead & Practitioner, DCC


In 2033, the health and wellbeing of an ageing

population in the Peak District will suffer as a result

of an increased demand of health and care services

combined with a reduced local workforce and a

limited capacity by the voluntary sector.


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+


Age


2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

• No surprise! – more people will be living longer. • The number of frail/ elderly residents aged 80/90+ years will DOUBLE in the Peak District.• Medical and social needs are higher which is ever more complicated by the rurality of some

areas.• Example – Hip replacements

Frail/ Elderly - increased demand

Source: Public Health

Knowledge & Intelligence Team


-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+


Age


2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

• 27% increase of ageing well population (+5,000 people).• Ageing Well • Self Care and The voluntary sector - plays a big part supporting self-care and ageing well and

is becoming evermore squeezed • This is not unique to the Peak District

Ageing well - increased demand




-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+


Age


2014 Males

2033 Males

2033 Females

• 14% reduction in working age population • Reduced local paid/ unpaid workforce to care for larger ageing local population• Living healthy lives (prevention) to ensure these populations keep well as they move through

the life course.

Working Age - Reduced workforce



Sensitivity: Confidential

Provocations: Health & Wellbeing Round Table Discussion

2. Will the health service need to increase investment in locally based and mobile services?

1. What can be done to support this huge increase in aged residents to ensure they can be cared for and stay independent when the health and social care systems are currently struggling? 3. What can be done to ensure the Peak

District’s ageing population ‘Age well’?4. Where else might we link with to learn how to improve support for the ageing population? 5. With increased demand across the health, social and

other services and a smaller local workforce, where will the workforce come from and how will they be attracted into the profession?

6. If the trend in Childhood Obesity continues to increase – will the prospective workforce be fit for purpose?

7. What can we do to ensure that our children develop healthily and is it likely to be a case of too little too late?8. The Peak District can play an

increasingly important role in assuring the mental health of its own population and that of surrounding conurbations – how can this be best achieved?

9. Are there any opportunities likely to arise from the changing demographic profile and how might they be realised?

10. What are the 3 principal risks arising from the changing demographic profile and how might they be mitigated?

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