powerpoint presentation€¦ · springboard for demand, investment and growth outlook • focus on...
TRANSCRIPT
The Green Economy
Structural change delivers winners and losers
Valuations are elevated
Source: Thomson Reuters
When the tide goes out
OUTLOOK
• Global investing offers
diversification and return
potential but is not without risk
• Selective investment driven by
valuation
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
• Global economic growth steady
• Markets are expensive relative
to history
• Cautious on valuations near
term, selective in exposure
• Volatility on geopolitics,
commodity prices and central
bank normalisation
• Rand is not a one way bet and
could detract when strong
SOUTH AFRICA
A country at a cross roads
Balancing the books is getting more difficult
Source: SARB, Treasury, Stats SA, NGI
Increasing debt levels in the absence of growth
Source: SARB, Treasury, Stats SA, NGI
South Africa’s growth decline
Source: Stats SA, IMF World Economic Outlook, NGI
Source: Stats SA, IMF World Economic Outlook, NGI
The real economy
2016 GDP growth: 0.3%
Population growth: 1.6%
57M28% Unemployment
32% Youth Unemployment (Age 15-24)
Second to last country
in education
performance relative to
countries with similar
spending55%
live under R38 a day
= 30.4 million people
25%live under R17 a day
= 13.8 million people
South Africa’s confidence deficit: Business Investment
Source: Stats SA, BER, Bloomberg, NGI
South Africa’s confidence deficit: Consumer Expenditure
Source: Stats SA, BER, Bloomberg, NGI
Equity markets (excl. Naspers) have been negative
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Standard Bank, Credit Suisse Global investment Returns Yearbook 2017, NGI, Real
returns
Lower Real Returns
A country at a cross roads
• Support from global
growth and carry trade near term
• SA Inc - uncertain operating
environment with pressure on the
consumer
• Scope for monetary easing
• Room for fiscal policy stimulus limited
• December will be key in determining
policy direction for the next 10 years
• The risks are high, and the next two
years will be volatile
• Starting from low base and a return of
confidence could provide a
springboard for demand, investment
and growth
OUTLOOK
• Focus on valuations and diversified,
balanced investment portfolios
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Our portfolios are balanced and well diversified
Positioned to capture returns, while protecting against risks at the same time
Through-the-cycle approach: long term investing with risk awareness
Positioning: Asset Allocation
Asset Class Positioning
Equities Underweight
Equities plus Equity-Linked Notes Neutral
Bonds Neutral
Property Neutral
Preference Shares Overweight
Cash Neutral
Track record
Nedgroup Investments Private Wealth Balanced Fund of Funds
3 Year
(Annual)
5 Year
(Annual)
10 Year
(Annual)
Since
inception
(Annual)
% Return 6.5 11.1 10.1 14.6
% Real return
(return after inflation)0.9 5.5 3.9 8.8
Versus Peers 9/63 6/44 1/33 1/9
Source: NGI, Performance as at 30 June 2017. Net of fees, 3, 5 7 and 10 years annualised. Inflation figures used are one month in arrears. ASISA categories used for ranking.
THANK YOU
DISCLAIMERS• Nedbank Private Wealth offers Stockbroking under Nedgroup Private Wealth Stockbrokers (Pty) Ltd,
Investments under Nedgroup Private Wealth (Pty) Ltd and Banking under Nedbank Limited.
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• We subscribe to the Code of Banking Practice of The Banking Association South Africa and, for
unresolved disputes, support resolution through the Ombudsman for Banking Services.
• A member of the Nedbank and Old Mutual Groups.
• Nedgroup Private Wealth Stockbrokers (Pty) Ltd (Reg no 1996/015589/07), a member of the JSE
equity, equity derivatives, currency derivatives, interest rate derivatives and commodity derivatives
markets and a juristic representative of Nedgroup Private Wealth (Pty) Limited and registered credit
provider in terms of the national credit act (NCR reg no NCRCP59).
• There is risk inherent in investing in any financial product or fund. Nedbank Private Wealth does not
guarantee the repayment of capital and/or the performance of any investment proposed in this
presentation. All calculations, projections or monetary values, together with all rates quoted, are
guidelines or estimations and are included for illustrative purposes only. While every care and effort has
been taken to ensure the accuracy of information provided in this presentation, Nedbank Private Wealth
accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, whether direct, indirect or consequential, arising from any
reliance on the information made available in this presentation or arising from any action taken or
transactions concluded as a result thereof.
• Nedgroup Collective Investments (RF) Proprietary Limited is the company that is authorised in terms of
the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act to administer the Nedgroup Investments unit trust
portfolios. It is a member of the Association of Savings and Investment South Africa (ASISA).
• Unit trusts are generally medium to long term investments. The value of your investment may go down
as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Nedgroup
Investments does not guarantee the performance of your investment and even if forecasts about the
expected future performance are included you will carry the investment and market risk, which includes
the possibility of losing capital. Unit trusts are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and
scrip lending. Certain unit trust funds may be subject to currency fluctuations due to its international
exposure. Nedgroup Investments has the right to close unit trust funds to new investors in order to
manage it more efficiently. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on
request from Nedgroup Investments.
• A fund of funds (FOF) may only invest in other unit trust funds, that levy their own charges, which could
result in a higher fee structure.
• The annualized return is the average return earned by an investment each year over a given time
period. An annualized total return provides only a snapshot of an investment's performance and does
not give investors any indication of its volatility. Annualized total return merely provides a geometric
average, rather than an arithmetic average.
• Performance is calculated for the portfolio and individual investment performance may differ as a result
of initial fees, the actual investment, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestment and dividend
withholding tax.