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EMFAC2017An update to California On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory

November 9, 2017

Mobile Source Analysis BranchAir Quality Planning and Science Division

California Air Resources Board

[email protected]

2

Outline

• Background

• EMFAC Updates Timeline

• EMFAC2017 Public Process Overview

• Overview of Proposed Changes

• Emissions Impact

• Next Steps

3

• California Air Quality Planning USEPA approves EMFAC for use in California’s SIPs and for

Conformity Analyses Can utilize California-specific MPO vehicle activity Accounts for unique, California-specific regulations and emission

factors as well as Federal regulations impacting CA fleets The 2016 Statewide SIP Strategy is based on EMFAC2014

• Rulemaking Used to develop rule-specific Criteria Pollutant emission inventories

• Climate Change Planning SB375 Scoping Plan

Background

4

EMFAC Updates

EMFAC2011Released: Sep. 2011

EMFAC2014Released: Dec. 2014

EMFAC2017To be released: Dec 2017

EMFAC202xNext

Integrating In-Use Diesel Regulations

Modular approach

Single Package Reflects Advanced Clean Cars, 2014

Amendments to Truck and Bus Rule, and Heavy duty GHG Regulations

3-Year Cycle An extension of the EMFAC2014 framework Reflecting measures adopted before 2018

Re-design the system to support both simplifications and/or enhancements, depending on program needs

Reflecting measures adopted before 202x

5

• Workshops 1st Workshop (Methodology) – June 1, 2017

2nd Workshop (Emissions Impact) – TODAY

• Releases Alpha Release –September 2017

Beta Release – November 2017

Public Release – December 2017 (expected)

EMFAC2017 Public Process

Final Release

+US EPA

Approval

2017 2018

June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec March

Public Release

EMFACWorkshop

#2

BetaRelease

AlphaRelease

EMFACWorkshop

#1

6

EMFAC2017 Support Tools

• Web database tool for emissions and emission rates http://www.arb.ca.gov/emfac/

• Web-based training Second Quarter of 2018

• User’s Guide

• Technical documentation

• Project Level Handbook

http://www.arb.ca.gov/emfac/

7

EMFAC2017 Major Updates

Fleet Characterization Updated vehicle population based on most recent DMV and IRP

vehicle registration data

In-Use Emissions Extensive emission testing (on-road and chassis dynamometer) of

both light and heavy duty vehicles

Activity Profiles California Household Travel Survey (2010 – 2012) – LDVs Heavy Duty Activity Data Collection (2016) – HDVs

GHG and Transit Modules

8

Regulations Reflected in EMFAC2017

• Federal Phase 2 GHG Standards for MHD/HHD

• California Phase 2 GHG (February 2018)

• Amendments to Opacity (Spring 2018)

• Amendments to Warranty (Spring 2018)

9

Outline

• Transit Bus Module – Zhen Dai

• Natural Gas Trucks – Ehsan Hosseini

• Truck and Bus Compliance – Sherrie Sala-Moore

• Heavy Duty Emission Rates and Deterioration – Lei Zhou

• Advanced Clean Cars– Hang Liu

• GHG Module – Guihua Wang

• Emissions Impacts of EMFAC2017 – Chandan Misra

• Next Steps and Q&A – Sam Pournazeri

• Demo – Hang Liu

BREAK

10

Transit Bus Module

11

Need for New Module

• To improve characterization of the urban transit fleets, including the diversity in fuel type, body type, and weight class, and the regional differences

• To support existing and proposed regulations

• To reflect latest knowledge of diesel and CNG bus emission rates and fleet composition

12

Summary of Data Sources

• Historical population and VMT: 2000~2015 NTD Annual data

• Future growth: MPO RTP/SCS forecast or county population growth

• Future attrition: assumed a specific lifetime based on empirical data

o Cutaways and buses with GVWR under 14,000 lbs:10 years

o Other buses: 14 years

• Base emission rates and speed correction factors

o New test data for heavy duty diesel and CNG buses

• Other parameters : EMFAC2017 latest assumptions

13

Historical Data

• Data Source: National Transit Database (NTD) https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd• Provides California Transit Data for CY2000 – CY2015

• All transit agencies receiving or benefit from federal §5307 or §5311 grants are required to report data to NTD

• Provides fleet inventory data delineated by vehicle type, service mode, manufacturer, model, seating capacity, etc.

• Consistent with EMFAC classification: school bus, motor coach and all other buses categories are excluded

• CY2015 used as base year for forecasting future population

https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd

14

CY2015 Base YearTransit Bus Inventory

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Articulated Bus Bus Cutaway

Popu

latio

n Zero Emission Bus (ZEB)

Natural Gas

Diesel

Gasoline

15

Forecasted Population and VMT

• Year-to-year iterative process where new purchase is calculated as the difference between current year’s population and last year’s population after attrition

• Regional annual growth rates based on MPO Regional Transportation Plans (RTPs) , or human population growth for non-MPO areas

• New purchase split between diesel and natural gas based on regional assumption as specified in EMFAC2014

• Assuming 50% of future new purchase of diesel buses are hybrids

• In the absence of any regulatory framework, assuming no new purchase of zero emission buses

16

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

LPG

LNG

GAS_HYB

GAS

FCEB

DSL_HYB

DSL

CNG

BEB

Transit Buses Population Forecast

New Transit Bus Purchase Assumptions:• Gas: 100% conventional• Diesel: 50% conventional & 50% hybrid• CNG: 100% conventional

17

Transit Bus Emissions Testing

• WVU Integrated Bus Information System (IBIS)• 29 diesel buses of 1986-2003 MY• 10 CNG buses of 2005-2008 MY

• CARB testing for Valley Transit Agency• 2 diesel buses of 2011 MY (SCR)• 3 CNG buses of 2011-2012 MY (TWC)

• Altoona Bus Research and Testing Center funded by Federal Transportation Agency• 8 diesel buses of 2010-2015 MY (SCR)• 10 CNG buses of 2010-2015 MY (TWC)

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Diesel Transit Bus Emission Rate

Model YearEMFAC2014a EMFAC2017b

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

CO2 (g/mi)

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

CO2 (g/mi)

Pre-2003 31.0 1,210 2,610 27.6 319 2,697

2003 14.0 116 2,41712.6 12.6 2,358

2004-2006 3.83 116 2,417

2007-20092.04 13.9 2,417

8.13 12.6 2,432

2010+ 1.70 6.0 2,029

a. Based on CBD

b. Based on OCBC

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CNG Transit Bus Emission Rate

Model YearEMFAC2014a EMFAC2017b

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

CO2 (g/mi)

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

CO2 (g/mi)

Pre-2003 21.6 42.5 2,394 20.3 21.7 2,325

2003-2006 15.4 23.0 2,39417.1 15.1 2,048

20070.65 1.3 2,305

2008+ 0.61 5.0 2,237

a. Based on CBD

b. Based on OCBC

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Emission Rates Assumptions

Weight Class

Fuel Type Data Source and Assumption

MHDT &

HHDT

CNG HHD based on new test; MHD scaled from HHD

DieselHHD based on new test; MHD scaled from HHD, apply 85% PM emission reduction on older buses starting 2010 to account for PM filter retrofit

BEB and FCEB Zero tailpipe emissions

Gasoline Same as EMFAC2014 gasoline UBUS

Diesel Hybrids 25% fuel efficiency improvement based on DSL

Gasoline Hybrids Same as EMFAC2014 Gasoline

LNG Same as CNG

LPG Same as CNG

Low NOx CNG 90% lower NOx emission rate based on CNG UBUS

Low NOx Diesel 90% lower NOx emission rate based on diesel UBUS

LHDT

CNG, DSL, LNG, LPG Same as EMFAC2017 diesel LHDT2 emission rates

Diesel Hybrids 25% fuel efficiency improvement based on DSL LHDT2Gasoline, Gasoline

HybridsSame as EMFAC2017 gasoline LHDT2 emission rates

BEB and FCEB Zero tailpipe emissions

21

VMT Comparison

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

VMT

(milli

on m

iles

per d

ay)

Calendar Year

VMT -STATEWIDE - Transit Buses

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

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EMFAC2017 Inventory - NOx

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emis

sion

s (tp

d)

Calendar Year

NOx - STATEWIDE - Transit Buses

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

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EMFAC2017 Inventory – PM2.5

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emis

sion

s (tp

d)

Calendar Year

Tailpipe PM2.5 - STATEWIDE - Transit Buses

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

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EMFAC2017 Inventory –HC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emis

sion

s (tp

d)

Calendar Year

HC - STATEWIDE – Transit Buses

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

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EMFAC2017 Inventory – CO2

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emis

sion

s (tp

d)

Calendar Year

CO2 - STATEWIDE - Transit Buses

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

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Caveats

• Like in EMFAC2014, urban buses do not report extended idling emissions since idling is included in the test cycle and accounted for in their running emissions

• EMFAC2017 does not report evaporative emissions for CNG urban buses due to data limitation

• EMFAC2017 does not report start emissions for heavy heavy duty and medium heavy diesel and CNG urban buses due to data limitation

27

Lead Staff Contact

Zhen DaiAir Resources Engineer

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

28

Natural Gas Trucks

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Forecasting Penetration of Regional HD NG Vehicles within California

Methodology

• Processed DMV data to obtain counts of heavy duty (HD) natural gas (NG) trucks within California by region and fleet type

• Aggregated the DMV data into air district levels• Local rules and incentive programs are designed at air district levels• Larger sample size per region

• Modeled growth of HD NG fleet as a function of model year using a linear growth and two 8 and 5 year flat rate prediction classes for each GAI/air district.

• Considered impacts of local rules and regulations, specifically South Coast AQMD Rules 1191-1196,on future penetration of NG vehicles in the fleet.

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Sample Modeling Results

31


Modeling Results

Penetration of HD NG Vehicles in California (GVWR>14,000 lbs)

% H

D N

G V

ehic

les

Calendar Year

32

Natural Gas Module

• EMFAC2014 was the first version of the EMFAC model that reflected the impact of natural gas transit buses and solid waste collection vehicles

• With EMFAC2017, staff expanded the natural gas module to cover most of the heavy duty fleet categories such as public fleet, school buses, etc.

• Due to lack of emission test data on natural gas trucks, for EMFAC2017, staff assumed that natural gas trucks have same emission rates as their diesel counterpart (except for transit buses and refuse trucks). As a result of this assumption, reflecting natural gas trucks did not change the overall NOx

and PM inventories. There are several on-going efforts to collect emission data from natural gas trucks and

buses

• EMFAC2017 will also provide users with natural gas fuel consumptions in the unit of Diesel Gallons Equivalent (DGE)

33

Lead Staff Contact

Ehsan Hosseini, PhD

Air Pollution Specialist

[email protected]


34

Truck and Bus Compliance

35

Updated CY2016 Base Year & Fleet Average Age

• Updated CY2016 Base Year in EMFAC2017, as compared to EMFAC2014, reflects:• Higher new sales for vehicles meeting the 2010 Engine Standard

• But less than 100% T&B Rule compliance which has occurred

Fleet Group CY2012* Average Age CY2016** Average Age

T6 Instate 9.1 11.3

T7 Instate Single 12.6 13.9

T7 Instate Tractor 9 8.6

CA IRP 6.2 5.8

Out of State*** 4 4.9

*Base Year for EMFAC2014

**Base Year for EMFAC2017***Out of State IRP Registration is not specific to travel within CA

(older vehicles are not as likely to travel to CA)

36

CARB Enforcement Report

https://www.arb.ca.gov/enf/reports/2016_enf_annual_report.pdf

37

Updated Compliance Assumptions

• EMFAC2014 assumed 100% compliance with T&B Rule

• EMFAC2017 future year forecasts assume that by CY2023, 100% compliance with the T&B Rule will be achieved• Enforcement has ongoing audits & can place registration

holds

• SB1 requires development of a registration hold system at DMV for vehicles that are out of compliance

38

Impact of UpdatedCompliance Assumptions

• Increased proportion of MY2007 and older vehicles• With a decreased rate of installed DPF Retrofits

• Decreased proportion of vehicles that are MY2008-MY2010 (with OEM DPFs)

• Decreased proportion of T6 Instate vehicles that are MY2011+ (meet 2010 Engine Std.)

• Increased proportion of T7 Instate vehicles that are MY2011+ (meet 2010 Engine Std.) due to: • Less vehicle exemptions claimed (NOx exempt areas)

39

Updated MY2007 and Older Instate Vehicle Assumptions

40

Updated DPF Retrofit Assumptions

41

Updated MY2008-2010 Instate Vehicle Assumptions

42

Updated 2010 Std. Engine Vehicle Assumptions

43

T&B Compliance Summary

• EMFAC2014 assumed 100% compliance with T&B Rule

• Less DPF retrofits and truck replacements have occurred than was forecasted in EMFAC 2014

• EMFAC2017 assumes 100% T&B Rule compliance will be achieved by CY2023

44

Lead Staff Contact

Sherrie Sala-Moore

Air Resources Engineer

[email protected]


45

Emission RatesHeavy Duty Vehicles

46

Summary of June 2017 Workshop HDV Emission Rates

• Heavy duty trucks and buses with GVWR of 14,001 lbs. and higher referred to as medium- and heavy-heavy duty vehicles

• Update to truck running exhaust emission rates and speed correction factors based on dynamometer test data

• Update to truck start and idle emission rates based on PEMS test data

• Update to diesel and CNG bus emission rates based on dynamometer test data

47

Update to Truck Running Exhaust Emission Rates

48

New Test Data from CARB Truck and Bus Surveillance Program

• 5 additional 2013+ MY HD diesel trucks tested since June workshop

• Test runs over UDDS, Near Dock Drayage, Local Drayage, 40-mph Cruise, 62-mph Cruise

49

UDDS NOx Emission Rate for 2013+ MY HD Diesel Trucks

50

Zero-Mile Rate and Deterioration Rate

• Average emission rate (ERavg) is average of test results over UDDS cycle

• ERavg is then back-projected to “zero-mile rate (ZMR)” using emission impact rate (EIR)

ZMR = ERavg / (1 + EIR × Odoavg )

• Deterioration rate (DR) is rate of emission increase with mileage

DR = (ERavg− ZMR)/Odoavg

51

Emission Deterioration of HD Diesel Trucks

• Emission deterioration of trucks is caused by tampering, mal-maintenance, and malfunction (TM&M) of emission controls

• Emission deterioration is quantified by emission impact rate (EIR), which is a function of Frequency of occurrence of TM&M

Emissions increase due to TM&M

52

Frequency of NOx Related TM&M:Effect of Extended Emission Warranty

• Many trucks have emission warranty beyond 100,000 miles CARB survey: ~40% of Classes 4-8 trucks have emission

warranty equal to their respective engine useful life

CARB estimate based on industry source: ~75% of remaining 60% of Class 8 have warranty extended to 250,000 miles

• TM&M frequency at 100,000 mi is now applied to weighted mileage of extended warranties

53

Revision of TM&M Frequency: NOx

NOx Related TM&M

TM&M Frequency at 1,000,000 Miles

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

2010-12 MY 2013+ MY 2010-12 MY 2013+ MY

SCR Malfunction 50% 33% 40% 27%

NOx Sensor #1 Malfunction

45% 30% 36% 24%

NOx Sensor #2 Malfunction

2.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.2%

54

PM Emissions vs. Opacity(NREL PM-Opacity Study)

55

Fraction of Trucks Exceeding 3% Opacity from CARB Roadside Inspections

TM&M frequency in EMFAC is for 1,000,000 miles

56

Revision of TM&M Frequency: PM

PM Related TM&M

TM&M Frequency at 1,000,000 Miles

EMFA2014 EMFA2017

2007-09 MY

2010-12 MY

2013+MY

2007-09 MY

2010-12 MY

2013+MY

DPF Leak 37.6% 37.6% 26.3% 38% 10% 6.7%

DPF Disabled

2% 2% 1.3% -- -- --

57

T&M Emission Increase Based on OBD Demonstration Reports

TM&MEMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

NOx PM NOx PM

SCR Malfunction 300% 15% 300% 15%

NOx Sensor #1 Malfunction 200% 0% 200% 0%

NOx Sensor #2 Malfunction 200% 0% 200% 0%

DPF Leak 0% 600% 0% 4,800%

DPF Leak - increases by an order of magnitude Reflects ~0.001 g/bhp-hr cert vs 0.01 g/bhp-hr standard Leaking DPFs emit at ~0.05 g/bhp-hr and thus 50x increase

58

Comparison of Zero-Mile Rates

EngineModel Year

EMFAC2014 EMFAC2017

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

NOx (g/mi)

PM (mg/mi)

2010-12 2.33 4.4 2.72 2.5

2013+ 1.89 4.4 2.68 2.5

All NOx and PM rates normalized to pre-Clean Diesel fuel for EMFAC model

59

NOx Emissions Deterioration

60

PM Emissions Deterioration

61

Speed Correction Factors for HD Trucks

• Running exhaust emission rate vary by speed

• SCF is based on test data from multiple test cycles with different speeds

ERMY = (ZMR + DR × OdoMY ) × SCF

62

NOx Speed Correction Factor

63

PM Speed Correction Factor

64

Plan for Updating HD Deterioration Assumption

65

Plan for Updating HD Deterioration

• Focus on utilizing OBD data to update TM&M frequency of 2013+ MY

• Revise rates of TM&M emission increase

Random Roadside Extramural Contract EMA Study

CARB has acquired eight new OBD scan tools

Enforcement staff trained on scan tools

Staff will collect OBD data on voluntary basis

$200k to update frequencies and EIR methodology

Staff in discussion with potential contractors

EMA/Ramboll OBD data from 3,000 trucks

Rambolldeveloping study plan with CARB

66

Federal Phase 2 GHG Regulation

67

Federal Phase 2 GHG Reflected in EMFAC2017

• U.S. EPA/NHTSA Final Rulemaking (FRM) published October 2016

• For Phase 2, EMFAC2017 incorporates:• Increased stringency of standards for combination

tractors, vocational vehicle and trailer

• Chassis container category introduced

• Implementation:• 2018-2027 for trailers

• 2021-2027 for all other segments

68

Lead Staff Contact

Lei ZhouStaff Air Pollution Specialist

[email protected]


69

Advanced Clean Cars

70

Technology Penetration

• Staff updated the light duty vehicle technology penetration assumptions in EMFAC2017 using latest: a. Data from NMOG reports

b. Information from Advanced Clean Cars Midterm Review

• The updated technology fractions presents higher penetration of Partial Zero Emission Vehicles (PZEVs) in earlier years, and less zero emission vehicles in future years.

71

Technology PenetrationEMFAC2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Vehi

cle

Mile

s Tr

avel

led

Calendar Year

EMFAC2014 Technology Penetration

EVeq

SULEV20

PZEV/SULEV/SULEV30Pre-2004

72

Technology PenetrationEMFAC2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Vehi

cle

Mile

s Tr

avel

led

Calendar Year

EMFAC2017 Technology Penetration

Pre-2004

PZEV/SULEV/SULEV30

SULEV20

EVeq

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ZEV Compliance AssumptionsEMFAC2014

• The 2012 ZEV rulemaking assumed that by 2025, 15.4% of light duty vehicle sales will be ZEV (BEV, FCEV, or PHEV)

• At the time, staff assumed that ZEVs will only appear in passenger cars

• To reflect the rulemaking assumption, EMFAC2014 assumed that by 2025, 15.7% of passenger car sales will be Electric Vehicle (EV) equivalent*

*Electric Vehicle Equivalent = BEVs + FCEVs + UF × PHEVs

(UF stands for the utility factor. EMFAC2014 used a utility factor of 40% for PHEVs) 0.1%1.0%

2.1%

6.0%

9.7%

13.0%

15.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

% S

ales

of E

V-Eq

Pass

enge

r Car

s

Model Year

74

ZEV Compliance AssumptionsACC Midterm Review

• According to Appendix A of ACC Midterm Review, staff are expecting a ZEV penetration of approximately 7.5% in light duty vehicle new sales by 2025.

This number is equivalent to 5.7% of EV equivalent in 2025.

• Unlike EMFAC2014, EMFAC2017 assumes that ZEVs will appear in all different light duty weight classes – from passenger cars to medium duty vehicles (≤8,500 lbs. GVWR).

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

Perc

ent Z

EV S

ales

in L

D S

ecto

r

Model Year

BEV FCEV PHEV

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ZEV Compliance AssumptionsEMFAC2017

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Perc

ent S

ales

of

EV E

quiv

alen

t

Model Year

Passenger Cars LDT1 LDT2 MDV

• Similar to EMFAC2014, EMFAC2017 models emissions from ZEVs using EV-equivalent VMT

• EMFAC2017 assumes that ZEVs are being spread throughout the whole LDV fleet rather than just passenger cars

• Although in EMFAC2014, a utility factor of 40% was assumed for all PHEVs, as part of the ACC MTR, this factor was gradually increased from 46% to 59% in 2025+.

• For years prior to 2017, the actual ZEV populations from DMV will be used.

76

ZEV VMT assumptions

• EMFAC2014 assumed that electric vehicles have an annual mileage accrual rates similar to that of conventional vehicles. • For example, a new electric vehicle in EMFAC2014 was assumed to drive

approximately 21,000 miles a year.

• Analysis of OEM data on current short range BEVs (Appendix G of ACC MTR) indicates that on average electric vehicles drives ~ 11,000 miles.

• Our new assessment of BAR Smog check data shows that conventional vehicles (ICEs) have an annual mileage accrual rates of about 15,000 miles.

• In EMFAC2017, staff assumes that electric vehicle will drive at ~ 11,000 miles/year and as average new BEV range increase, this annual mileage gradually increase to that of ICEs by 2025

77

Regional Distribution of ZEVs

• EMFAC2014 assumed that ZEV penetration will be similar in all regions. For example, EMFAC2014 assumed that in 2025, 15.7% of passenger car sales in all counties were EV.

• For EMFAC2017, staff are exploring new methods to reflect the regional variability in ZEV penetration using DMV vehicle registration data and information on regional ZEV infrastructure development, human population growth, etc.

• Results presented in this workshop are all based on the existing methodology

78

Lead Staff Contact

Hang Liu, Ph.D.Air Pollution Specialist

[email protected]


79

GHG Module

80

Background

• CO2 emissions can be estimated in EMFAC2014 or prior, but they do not represent CARB’s official GHG inventory.

• CH4 is estimated in EMFAC2014, using organic gas speciation profiles.

• N2O is not included in EMFAC2014 or prior versions.

• No CO2 equivalent (CO2e) is provided in EMFAC2014 or prior.

81

Major updates to the GHG part of EMFAC2017

• GHG estimation is improved in EMFAC2017 in order to align with and support official CARB efforts.

• EMFAC2017 includes 3 GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O.

• CO2 is calculated based on complete combustion of fuel.

• Fuel consumption is matched to BOE fuel sales for historical years (i.e., 2000-2016).

• Fuel efficiency (FE) assumptions have been updated based on federal FE data.

• The latest vehicle testing data are used to estimate CH4 and N2O.

82

CO2 calculation approach

• EMFAC2014 and prior calculate only tailpipe CO2 emissions, using g/mi emission rates from vehicle testing data.

• EMFAC2017 will calculate CO2 emissions based on complete combustion of fuel.

• Uses BOE, MRR, CEC, U.S. EPA data sources.

• EMFAC2017 fuel consumption for historical years is matched to BOE numbers to ensure CO2 estimates aligned with real-world official on-road mobile fuel sales in California.

83

Fleet average fuel efficiency and CO2 emission rates

• Identify the fuel efficiency rating for California’s vehicle fleet:

• Decode VIN numbers in DMV registration data to obtain make, model, and other vehicle attributes

• Match make, model, and vehicle attributes to a record in fueleconomy.gov to obtain EPA rated fuel efficiency for each individual vehicle.

• The EPA rated fuel efficiency values are then used to calculate the California fleet average fuel efficiency and CO2 emission rates.

84

Comparison of fleet average CO2

emission rates

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

CO

2E

mis

sion

Rat

e (g

/mil

e)

Model Year

P - EMFAC2014

LDT - EMFAC2014

P - EMFAC2017

LDT- EMFAC2017

• Updated fleet average CO2 emission rates by model year are lower in EMFAC2017.• Forecasted fuel efficiencies are based on Midterm Evaluation of Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse

Gas Emissions Standards for Model Years 2022-2025.

85

CH4 calculation approach

• CH4 currently calculated in EMFAC2014 and prior from HC, using speciation profiles.

• EMFAC2017 will • estimate gasoline CH4 as a function of HC emissions based

on the latest vehicle testing data.

• continue using speciation profiles to estimate diesel and natural gas CH4 emissions.

86

N2O calculation approach

• N2O is not estimated in EMFAC2014 or prior.

• EMFAC2017 will

• estimate gasoline N2O as a function of NOx emissions.

• estimate diesel N2O using fuel consumption and an improved fuel-based emission factor.

• Analysis of HD testing data indicates diesel N2O emission factors significantly higher than previously thought.

• CARB, WVU, and SCAQMD testing data, UC Berkeley study

• Utilize the latest available vehicle testing data:

• CARB Vehicle Surveillance Data (LDV) and “Cross California” campaign data (HD)

87

CO2 equivalent and annual estimates

• GHGs will also be provided in EMFAC2017 in units of CO2e, i.e., CO2 equivalent.

• Use 100-year time horizon GWPs (IPCC AR4).

• Consistent with CARB’s latest official GHG inventory.

• Weekday output and annual equivalent.

88

GHG and Fuel estimates are reported in a separate output

89

GHG module’s report structure

• Report CO2, CH4, N2O, and Fuel in a single output file.

• At the same level of detail as the criteria pollutants output.

90

CO2 estimates comparison of EMFAC2017 vs. EMFAC2014

• Estimated CO2 emissions from GAS and (DSL+NG)

Note: EMFAC output with default VMT

91

CH4 estimates comparison of EMFAC2017 vs. EMFAC2014

• Estimated CH4 emissions from GAS and (DSL+NG)


92

N2O estimation in EMFAC2017

• Estimated N2O emissions from GAS and (DSL+NG)


93

Fuel estimates comparison of EMFAC2017 vs. EMFAC2014

• Estimated annual fuel use: GAS and DSL


94

Summary and inventory impact

• The GHG module is a new addition to EMFAC, with methodology consistent with CARB’s official GHG inventory.

• EMFAC2017 includes 3 GHGs from on-road mobile sources: CO2, CH4, and N2O (as well as CO2e).

• Statewide CO2 and CH4 emissions are anticipated to be slightly higher in EMFAC2017 than EMFAC2014.

• Diesel HD N2O emissions are anticipated to play an increasingly important role, as gasoline LDV N2O emissions are expected to drop in future years.

95

Lead Staff Contact

Guihua Wang, Ph.D. Air Resources Engineer

[email protected]


96

Emissions ImpactEMFAC2014 versus EMFAC2017

Prelim

inary -Draft

97

VMT Data

• Inventory results presented in this workshop are based on VMT data from 2015 FSTIP which was also used for 2016 Statewide SIP Strategy Document

• EMFAC2017 model will be released with “default” VMT

• Similar to EMFAC2014, EMFAC2017 will also provide users with the capability of using their own VMT through the “Custom Activity” functionality of the model.

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Vehicle Category Definition

• Light Duty – All vehicles with Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) of 8,500 lbs. or less. This includes passenger cars, light trucks, and motorcycles.

• Heavy Duty – All vehicles with GVWR of 8,501 lbs. or higher This includes light, medium and heavy duty trucks and buses

99

Truck and Bus Rule: PM and NOx increase 2012 – 2022 due non-compliant trucks and buses

Heavy-Duty PM Deterioration update: PM increase

Heavy-Duty Emission Rates: PM increase and NOx increase in future years

Heavy Duty Start Emissions: NOx decrease

Heavy-Duty Idle emission factors: NOx increase, PM increase

Heavy-Duty Activity Profiles : NOx increase, PM increase

Transit Bus Emission Rate and Activity Update - NOx decrease, PM decrease

Light-duty Emission Rates: NOx increase

(1) New vehicles exhibit higher cold start and lower running emission

(2) With the updated technology penetration assumption there is a net NOx emissions increase

(EMFAC2017 vs EMFAC2014 using 2015 FSTIP activity data)Overview of Emissions Change

(Preliminary results - subject to change)

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VMT - Statewide


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Statewide Truck & Bus VMT


102

VMT – South Coast


103

VMT – San Joaquin Valley


104

Statewide NOx Trend


105

Statewide PM2.5 TrendExcludes Tire and Brake Wear


106

Statewide ROG TrendIncludes Evaporative Emissions


107

Detailed DifferencesEMFAC2017 vs EMFAC2014

108

Statewide NOxHeavy- and Light-Duty


109

Statewide NOx Trend


110

South Coast NOxHeavy- and Light-Duty


111

South Coast NOx Trend


112

San Joaquin NOxHeavy- and Light-Duty


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San Joaquin NOx Trend


114

Statewide PM2.5Heavy- and Light-Duty

Excludes Tire and Brake Wear


115

Statewide PM2.5 TrendExcludes Tire and Brake Wear


116

South Coast PM2.5Heavy- and Light-Duty



117

South Coast PM2.5 TrendExcludes Tire and Brake Wear


118

SJV PM2.5Heavy- and Light-Duty



119

SJV PM2.5 TrendExcludes Tire and Brake Wear


120

Statewide ROGHeavy- and Light-Duty

Includes Evaporative Emissions


121

Statewide ROG TrendIncludes Evaporative Emissions


122

South Coast ROGHeavy- and Light-Duty



123

South Coast ROG TrendIncludes Evaporative Emissions


124

SJV ROGHeavy- and Light-Duty



125

SJV ROG TrendIncludes Evaporative Emissions


126

Lead Staff

Chandan MisraStaff Air Pollution Specialist

[email protected]


127

Next Steps

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Next Steps

• Beta Testing A completed version of the model will be released to CARB’s

designated beta testers for beta testing

• EMFAC2017 Release Updates from beta testing and public release by year end

• USEPA approval Submit the model to USEPA in March for approval

• Web based Training

• Technical Documentation

129

Regulatory Support

• EMFAC2017 to be utilized for various upcoming rulemaking processes at CARB:• Amendments to Smoke Opacity

• Lengthening medium- and heavy-duty engine warranty

• Amendments to Heavy Duty OBD

• Comprehensive HD I/M

• Low NOx standards

• Innovative Clean Transit

• Advanced Clean Local Truck Rule

• Airport Shuttle Buses

130

Looking ForwardEMFAC202x

• Coordinating with industry to share fleet representative data for future updates

• Collecting PHEV data to better reflect the emissions

• Emphasis on collecting OBD scan data to update MY2013+ TM&M frequencies

• Chassis/PEMS testing to continue to update emission rates

131

Questions and Comments

• For questions and comments please contact us at:

[email protected]• You can also visit our website at:

https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm


https://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm

132

Demo

133

Lead Staff

Hang Liu, Ph.D.Air Pollution Specialist

[email protected]


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