powerpoint presentation23 46 58 12 2 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 80 90 100 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f q1...

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06

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#1 - 35% - 30

- 11 - 150 -

&

#2

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- -

#1 - 75

- 90 - 160 2017

- 2017 246

- 39.

- 340 500 000

- 1300

- 120

- 33

50

- 100%

-

- 10

- : 99.8%

76.5%

-

&

4

20141 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2017 Q1 2018

181 143 155 246 36 38

EBITDA 36 29 25 50 12 15

30 24 16 40 9 12

185 174 172 340 175 349

47 59 54 47 59 42

1 - 1 * 5

-1

-3

-98 -2004

100%

96%

100% 99.9% 100% 100%

2% 50% 2% 50%

6

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No1 ;

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No2

53

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30 *

No

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33

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;

45%

33%

20%

2% 2015

40%

30%

27%

3% 2016

28%

22%

42%

8%

2017

*

&

10

11 *

139 150

226

28%

18% 19%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016 2017

63 62

70

23%

17%

19%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

25

50

75

100

2015 2016 2017

48 47

54

36% 38%

44%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

15

30

45

60

2015 2016 2017

*

28

42

24%

7% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

2015 2016 2017

102

-

#1

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- -

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& -

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02

03

05

14

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06

142 155

245 247 254

275 293 303

18% 9% 10%

14% 18% 18% 19% 19%

0

0.2

0.4

050

100150200250300

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

-

38% 34% 30% 38% 39% 41% 44% 45%

45% 57% 54%

53% 55% 54% 51% 50%

18% 9%

16% 9% 6% 5% 5% 5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

&

02

03

04

05 -

06

15

01

07

63 62 70

87

105

119

133 140

23%

17% 19%

23% 24% 25% 26% 26%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

51% 47% 48% 43% 37% 35% 32% 31%

6% 9% 15% 21% 24% 25% 24% 0%

2% 3% 4% 5% 5%

49% 48% 43% 40% 39% 37% 38% 39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

01 B2B

02 .

03 -

04

05

06

07

16

48 47 54

60

74 79 82 83

36% 38%

44%

48% 49% 49% 49% 49%

30%

38%

45%

53%

60%

0

13

25

38

50

63

75

88

100

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

27 24 25

29

41 45 46 46

,15 ,17 ,21 ,23 ,22 ,22

,25 ,26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60( )

1-

02

03

04 Cargill, ADM, Glencore

05

06 2018-2022

17

01 -

12% 2% 15%

83%

82% 59%

15%

4% 2%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017

28

42

102 100

76 77 78 79

24%

7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

(+20.5 )

20 ( )

+

6.7 (

4.5

+7

202

5.8 (

)

10

1.6

ERP

-

18

20 *

139 150

226

247

28%

18% 19% 22%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016 2017 2018E

63 62

70

87

23%

17%

19%

23%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

25

50

75

100

2015 2016 2017 2018F

48 47

54

60

36% 38%

44%

48%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

15

30

45

60

2015 2016 2017 2018F

*

28

42

24%

7% 7% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

2015 2016 2017 2018E

100 102

21

02 !

03

04 -

05

01

34 23

33 46

58

12 15

2

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Q1 '17 Q1 '18

EBITDA

EBITDA - EBITDA -

25

13 23

35

45

9 12

2

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Q1 '17 Q1 '18

- -

&

22

2015 2016 2017 2018

F 2019

F

59 305 54 300 46 890 43 945 42 041

- 1 320 227 0 0 0

- (

)

47 367 36 762 22 489 31 496 32 079

- ( )

10 618 17 311 24 401 12 449 9 962

EBITDA 29 212 25 219 50 272 45 702 58 211

/ 34.4% 31.4% 13.8% 10.2% 9.7%

57 570 78 625 103 644 115 328 121 485

17 349 33 294 8 146 30 400 24 300

02

03

04

05

06 .

01 -

.

24

-

5% 6%

0%

7%

5%

7% 8%

0%

2%

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0

0.05

0.1

2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

*

1

P/E ( )

15.5 9.0-14.0

P/B ( )

1.6 1.4-1.9

2018

7.2% 48%2

2017 1.7% 7%

02 -

03

04

05

06

- 1 BGBX40;, 2

2

01

25

-

/E /B EV/EBITDA

EBITDA

(%)

/

EBITDA

-

-(%)

9.0x-14.0x 1.4-1.9x 8.0-10.2x 23.60 0.61x 6.80

MHP SA 1,239 9.21x 1.76x 5.52x 35.31 2.43x 5.47

Cherkizovo Group PJSC 656 6.72x 0.86x 5.93x 18.22 3.02x 6.92

Koka DD Varazdin 11 10.48x 0.14x 8.64x 3.80 6.98x 0.00

Astral Foods Ltd

795 14.47x 3.52x 9.13x 9.97 -0.45x 3.84

Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL

5,675 13.86x 1.15x 15.84x 6.85 7.93x 3.01

GFPT PCL 398 10.26x 1.24x 7.36x 14.39 1.07x 2.50

Banvit Bandirma Vitaminli Yem Sanayii ASA

240 5.68x 2.07x 3.49x 17.00 0.47x 0.00

Industrias Bachoco SAB de CV

2,433 10.39x 1.55x 6.08x 12.05 -1.81x 1.44

BRF SA 4,047 n.m. 1.58x 11.20x 8.60 4.98x 0.00

Marfrig Global Foods SA 1,097 n.m. 2.18x 7.99x 8.17 4.46x 0.00

Tyson Foods Inc 22,972 11.73x 1.67x 10.07x 9.17 2.67x 1.55

Sanderson Farms Inc 2,057 9.05x 1.64x 3.99x 14.91 -0.76x 2.07

Pilgrim's Pride Corp 4,384 6.79x 2.67x 5.36x 13.15 1.62x 0.00

LDC SA 2,392 20.88x 2.21x 8.39x 7.94 0.17x 0.99

Scandi Standard AB 388 20.91x 2.93x 11.13x 6.81 4.31x 2.25

- 11.57x 1.81x 8.01x 12.42 2.47x 2.00

10.39x 1.67x 7.99x 9.97 2.43x 1.55

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

21,393 17.87x 1.35x 14.56x 3.74 3.53x 2.90

Bunge Ltd 8,348 46.29x 1.55x 19.25x 1.99 6.81x 2.63

GrainCorp Ltd 1,152 25.05x 0.96x 12.49x 6.16 5.40x 5.48

- 29.73x 1.28x 15.43x 3.96 5.25x 3.67

25.05x 1.35x 14.56x 3.74 5.40x 2.90

Bloomberg (

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Superbrands BestBuy

* BluePoint 2015

Управител

+359 882 024 138

[email protected]

Изпълнителен директор

[email protected]

Член на Съвета на директорите

+359 888 939 426

[email protected]

Управител

+359 888 619 325

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




35

02

03 -

04 ,

05

-).

01 , 16%

98 97 102 109 114 116 119

87 87 90 92 94 95 96

2 833 2 861 2 825 2 790 2 772 2 769 2 782

4 660 4 711 4 695 4 679 4 691 4 730 4 793

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

( )

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611 655 651 611 596 579 584

1 779 1 804 1 748 1 711 1 721 1 751 1 759

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1,200

1,600

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8,000

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12,000

14,000

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2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

( )

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03

04 -

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.

128 120 117 117 115

128 119 117 117

113

631 595 586 575 588

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400.0

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,150.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

( ) ( /

2016 2017

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3.0 10.0 2.9 10.6

16.3 5.7 16.7 5.9

5.6 12.9 5.7 13.5

0.7 7.2 0.8 7.1

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37

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2017 2027 CAGR

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586 807 3.3%

137 246 6.0%

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2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

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2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

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2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

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