powering progress epri p.m. grant doe peer review 23 july 1997 superconductivity and electric power:...
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Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
SuperconductivitySuperconductivityand Electric Power:and Electric Power:
Several Future Several Future ScenariosScenariosPaul M. GrantPaul M. Grant
EPRIEPRI
DOE Peer Review WorkshopDOE Peer Review Workshop
23 July 199723 July 1997
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
What is Electricity?What is Electricity?
Electricity is the most efficient and convenient means mankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
ElectricityElectricityand the Quality of and the Quality of LifeLife
Emerging
Developing
DevelopedFSUs
log [ per capita GDP ]
log
[ p
er c
apit
a Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erat
ion ]
Persian Gulf
Electricity directly Electricity directly related to related to standard of living standard of living in most of the in most of the worldworld
Enormous Enormous increase in increase in electricity usage electricity usage seen for the 21st seen for the 21st centurycentury
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity & QoL:Electricity & QoL:Asian SceneAsian Scene
Australia
New Zealand
JapanSingaporeHong Kong
Taiwan
S. KoreaMalaysia
Thailand0
2500
5000
7500
10000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
GDP/capita (US$)
kWh/
capi
ta
China
Cambodia
Vietnam
PhilippinesIndonesia
Laos
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
ElectricityElectricity& Energy & Energy ConservationConservation
E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%)
E/GNP ratio
Electricityfraction
Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al., 1990
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
50
40
30
20
10
150
130
110
90
70
50
Electricity is the most efficient and convenient meansmankind has found to transport energy throughout his habitat….
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity - Electricity - The Bottom LineThe Bottom Line
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
US Energy Flow - US Energy Flow - 19951995
Powering ProgressEPRI
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23 July 1997
US Electricity Flow - US Electricity Flow - 19941994
1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh
0.28 TkWh
0.15 TkWh
3.24 TkWh
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity Prices: Electricity Prices: 19951995US & Asia (¢US/kWh)US & Asia (¢US/kWh)
5.7 6.47.4 7.4
4.7
1.9
19
9
02468
101214161820
Indonesia
Philippines
Malaysia
Thailand
India
China
Japan
US
US: $324 BWorld: $1.3 T
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
U.S. ElectricityU.S. ElectricityProduction/Loss Production/Loss SummarySummary
TkWh % in T&D Lossand In-Plant
Use
Revenue@
$0.10/kWh(B$)
No. of 500 MWPower PlantEquivalents
Capital Cost@ $800/kW
(B$)
Total 3.24 324 740 296
T&DLosses
0.28 8% 28 63 25
In-PlantUsed
0.15 5% 15 35 14
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
The Electricity The Electricity ParadigmParadigm
Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage
Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution
Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
The Electricity The Electricity ParadigmParadigmand and SuperconductivitySuperconductivity
Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage• Generators, SMES, FlywheelsGenerators, SMES, Flywheels
Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution• Cables, Transformers, FCLsCables, Transformers, FCLs
Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use• Motors, ElectromagnetsMotors, Electromagnets
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
SuperconductivitySuperconductivityand Efficiencyand Efficiency
1994 2014@ 2%/yr
2014Plants Saved
0.2%Penetration4× Efficiency
Total 740 360
T&D Losses 63 31 11
In-House Use 35 17 6
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
The Electricity The Electricity ParadigmParadigmand and DeregulationDeregulation
Generation/StorageGeneration/Storage• GenCo GenCo
– DeregulatedDeregulated, Open Market, Commodity Bidding, Open Market, Commodity Bidding
Transmission/DistributionTransmission/Distribution• TranCoTranCo
– RegulatedRegulated, ISOs, Stewardship?, ISOs, Stewardship?
Delivery/End UseDelivery/End Use• ServCoServCo
– DeregulatedDeregulated, MultiUtility (Elec, Gas, Telecom,…), MultiUtility (Elec, Gas, Telecom,…)
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity-Electricity-Transportation Transportation AnalogyAnalogy
Electricity Transportation
Fuel
Generation
Natural Resources
Manufacturing/Agriculture
Transmission Electrons Distribution
Interstate Highways Trucks Regional Freeways
End Uses Lighting Rotating Machinery Appliandes
Retail Sales Home Depot Sears Safeway
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity Electricity TransmissionTransmissionand and DeregulationDeregulation
EPRI1980 1990 1980 1990
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Explosive Growth in Explosive Growth in Bulk Power TransactionsBulk Power Transactions
Billions of DollarsBillions of Dollars
Four-fold increase in a decadeFour-fold increase in a decade
EPRIEPRI
Public Public Stake in Stake in Viable Viable GridGrid
Freeway Freeway System System AnalogyAnalogy
Who’s in Who’s in Charge?Charge?
Powering ProgressEPRI
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23 July 1997
California AB 1890California AB 1890SummarySummary
Implements electricity deregulation and Implements electricity deregulation and mandates CEC to set up RD&D programmandates CEC to set up RD&D program
CEC RD&D Program MissionCEC RD&D Program Mission• ““Public interest RD&D activities to advance Public interest RD&D activities to advance
energy science or technology not energy science or technology not adequately provided by competitive and adequately provided by competitive and regulated markets”regulated markets”
Funded by utilities and access rate levyFunded by utilities and access rate levy• $62 M/yr$62 M/yr
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
California AB 1890California AB 1890RD&D Focus AreasRD&D Focus Areas
Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency
• Superconductivity?Superconductivity? Environmental ProtectionEnvironmental Protection Strategic Energy ResearchStrategic Energy Research
• Superconductivity?Superconductivity?
Powering ProgressEPRI
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23 July 1997
Gas or Electricity?Gas or Electricity?Pipes or Wires?Pipes or Wires?
Powering ProgressEPRI
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23 July 1997
North American CHNorth American CH44
There’s Lots of ItThere’s Lots of It
EPRI
Natural Gas IndustryNatural Gas IndustryEstimates of Remaining ReservesEstimates of Remaining Reserves
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
24002400
20002000
16001600
12001200
800800
400400
00
3D Seismic Imaging3D Seismic Imaging
EPRI
TcfTcf
TrendlineTrendlineGRIPGC
3D SeismicImaging PlusDirectionalDrilling
50 Years at‘97 Prices!
Powering ProgressEPRI
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23 July 1997
Natural Gas:Natural Gas:Monthly Price Monthly Price FluctuationsFluctuations
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Electricity from GasElectricity from Gas
Gas Turbine
Steam Turbine
Generator
CombinedCycle Gas Turbine(Aeroderived)
>60% TE,$500/kW
GE, ABB,Hitachi
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P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Distributed Distributed Generation:Generation:US &EuropeUS &Europe
Use widespread NG pipeline networkUse widespread NG pipeline network Generation plants sited locallyGeneration plants sited locally
• Community of 60,000:Community of 60,000: 50-100 MW50-100 MW• Subdivision of 1-2000:Subdivision of 1-2000: 3-5 MW 3-5 MW• Single Family Dwelling:Single Family Dwelling: 20-30 kW 20-30 kW
(100,000 btu/hr)(100,000 btu/hr) Some level of storage requiredSome level of storage required ““Loosely” connected to gridLoosely” connected to grid
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Distributed Distributed Generation:Generation:ApproachesApproaches
Internal Combustion (GRI)Internal Combustion (GRI)
““Micro-turbines” (EPRI)Micro-turbines” (EPRI)
Solid Oxide Fuel CellsSolid Oxide Fuel Cells
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P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:Middle EastMiddle East
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Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:North AmericaNorth America
Two Wheeling Scenarios:
• Hudson Bay Hydo Power into New England/New York
• Vera Cruz Gas Fields to Texas
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:AsiaAsia
Location of Asian Gas Fieldsand Major Energy Use Centers
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Power by HTSC:Power by HTSC:Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia
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23 July 1997
The SuperconductingThe SuperconductingElectricity Pipe!Electricity Pipe!
I-V
Ground
Structural Support
SuperconductingElectricityPipeline
ThermalInsulation
ElectricalInsulation
Superconductor(-V)
Superconductor(+V)
+VI
LiquidNitrogen
Total Total Cryo Cryo SystemSystem
Power: Power: 5 5 GW dcGW dc
Cost: Cost: < < Gas, Gas, HVDC > HVDC > 500 500 MilesMiles
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Operating Operating ParametersParameters
Capacity 50 kA, ±50 kV; %GMW
Length 1610 km
Temperature Rise,1 K every 10 km, 65 K,1 W/m heat input
21,600 liters LN2/hr,100 kW coolers, 120gal/min
Vacuum 10-5-10-4 torr 10 stations/10 km need200 kW
Powering ProgressEPRI
P.M. GrantDOE Peer Review
23 July 1997
Gas/HVDC Gas/HVDC ComparisonComparison
Marginal Cost of Electricity (Mid Value Fuel Costs)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Miles
c/k
Wh
LVDC ($5.5/kA-m @ 65K)
LVDC ($10/kA-m @ 77K)
HVDC
gas pipeline