powering india into the future€¦ · alternative cycle engines may be beneficial, e.g. - 1.2l...

Powering India into the FutureFactors Influencing Future Powertrains

Gary Kirkpatrick

David Hudson

Tata Motors European Technical Centre (TMETC)

Future Powertrain Conference 2016

“Global Perspective & Emerging Markets”

Contents

India

Automotive Market

Current Passenger Vehicle (PV)

- Powertrain

Future Powertrain (PV)

Summary

India

7th largest county (land area)

Currently 2nd largest by population (1.31 Billion)

- 1 in 6 people in the world live in India

- 3rd largest state of Bihar has population equivalent to

Germany (10th largest state = UK)

Population growth rate @ 1.2% (UK 0.7%)

- Worlds largest population by 2030 (1.53 Billion)

Worlds largest population of young people

- >50% of population is under age of 25

- >66% of population is under age of 35

3 out of 10 of the worlds mega cities are in India

Mumbai

20 million

Kolkata

14 million

New Delhi

23 million

India

Currently 7th largest by GDP, 3rd largest by PPP

One of the fastest growing major economies till 2050 (c.7%)

Automotive industry responsible for 7.1% of GDP

55.6

18.1

19.27.126.3

Indian Economy (GDP % by sector)

Service Aggriculture Industry Auto

Contents

India

Automotive Market


- Powertrain


Summary

Automotive Market

23.4 million units produced (7th largest in the world)

2W & 3W account for > 80% of volume (production & sales)

3.2 million Passenger Vehicles produced, 2.6 million sold (5th largest in the world)

13%

43%

19%

12%

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

2W 3W PV CV

Sale & Export

Sales

Export (%)

79%,

18,499,970

4%,

949,021

14%,

3,220,172

3%,

697,083

Auto Industry Production

2W 3W PV CV

23.4

million

units

Automotive Market

Huge growth potential

Expected to become 3rd largest PV market by 2018-2020

- > 5.5 million PV units by 2022

Low car

penetration levels

Rising disposable incomes

40% middle class population by 2019

Business friendly government

Cost Advantage and Large Labour Pool

77,017

1,324

123,000

12,917

3,519

4,865,000

4,460,000

644,480

394,428

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000

US

India

China

Germany

UK

Road Network Length (km)

Total Motorway/Freeway/Expressway

Automotive Market

Large road network (2nd in world) but high proportion of rural roads

Many in poor condition or unpaved

Growth of road network 1/20th of growth in vehicle population

India: < 4 km / 1000

people

US: 21 km / 1000

people

Automotive Market

Congested conditions within cities – low cycle speed, high # stops and short stop duration

Crowding at junctions, traffic ‘edges forward’ to fill available road space

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Average speed

(kph)

Stops/km x10Average stop

duration (s)

Low speed performance &

driveability is important…

Indian City

NEDC

FTP-75

Automotive Market

80% of oil is imported

- India is tied into global prices and potential

instabilities

Current retail prices (Delhi)

- Gasoline c. 60 Rs/L

- Diesel c. 45 Rs/L

- Taxation lower on Diesel to enable economic

use by industry & agriculture sectors

Relative fuel cost is highest in the world

Fuel price comparable to £3.50/L - £13.00/L (UK)

- Depending on how relative spending power

is accounted for

Real world (city cycle) fuel

economy is critical…

Automotive Market

Some of the most polluted cities in the world (PM2.5 >110-120 μg/m3)

Local action taken by Delhi, including:

- CNG fuel mandatory for commercial vehicles

- Ban on registration of >2.0L Diesel passenger vehicles (Dec’15 – Mar’16)

- Odd-Even rule for entry into city

o 1st-15th Jan’16 pilot run

o 2nd phase expected Apr’16

Government schemes proposed to reduce reliance on oil imports and promote electrification

- National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP): targeting 7 million electrified vehicle (2W, 3W, 4W) sales

by 2020

o c.20% of total market

o Saving 2.2-2.5m tonnes fuel

- $116m funding from 2015-17 towards direct consumer subsidies, technology development & charging

infrastructure (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of xEVs - FAME)

Automotive Market

A diverse market

Contents

India

Automotive Market


- Powertrain


Summary

Current Passenger Vehicle

Indian PV market dominated by small hatchbacks (c.50% market share)

Largest sub-segment ‘B2’ (c.25%, 677,000 units 2015), e.g. Maruti Suzuki Swift

Currently a split emission level system (by registration location)

- Delhi + Selected Cities: BS-IV (‘Bharat Stage’)

- Nationwide: BS-III

BS standards as per EU with minor changes

- 90 kph maximum cycle speed

- Reference mass = Kerb + 150 kg

- No use of 6th gear for MT


Also, body styles that are not observed elsewhere in the world

Largely driven by taxation which encourages vehicles <4m length and <1.5L Diesel or <1.2L Gasoline

Component Rate Classification Beneficiary

Excise Duty

12% Car with length <4m & Engine <1.5L D or <1.2L G

Central Government24% Car with length >4m & Engine <1.5L D or <1.2L G

27% Car with Engine >1.5L D or >1.2L G

VAT 12.5% - 14.5% State to State irrespective of Vehicle Class State Government

Road Tax 3% - 24% Based on Vehicle Pricing - Different in every StateState Transport

Department


Currently 50/50 Gasoline/Diesel split

Dominated by a single manufacturer

47

17

9

8

5

4

43 2 11110

2015 PV Market Maruti-Suzuki

Hyundai

Mahindra

Honda

Tata

Toyota

Renault

Ford

Volkswagen

Chevrolet

Datsun

Nissan

Skoda

Fiat

2.6

million

units

Current Powertrain (PV)

Gasoline

4-cylinder, 1.2L Naturally Aspirated

85 PS, 115 Nm

Port Fuel Injected

DVVT, 4 v/cylinder

c.20-22 km/l in ‘B2’ Hatch (110 – 120

g/km)

Diesel

4-cylinder 1.3L WGT

75 PS, 200 Nm

Common Rail

Emission treatment with EGR & DOC

c.25-27 km/l in ‘B2’ Hatch (98 – 105

g/km)

Transmission

Market dominated by (5-speed) manual transmissions, > 97% 2015

97.4

1.3

0.5

0.3

0.6

2.7

2015 Transmission Market Share

MT S-AT AMT CVT DCT

Contents

India

Automotive Market


- Powertrain


Summary


Key requirements for the Powertrain are to deliver good low speed performance and driveability along with

very good city cycle fuel economy

Recently, the government has committed to bring forward BS-VI emission regulation to April 2020, skipping BS-

V altogether. Ultra low sulphur fuel (10 ppm) to be available in market 2019

Gasoline share expected to increase from 50% to 70% by 2022 due to BS-VI introduction and falling Diesel fuel

subsidies

AND: Industry must still achieve 2021 CAFE requirement @ 113 g/km

Future Powertrain - Engine

Fuel efficiency improvements must be considered in the context of baseline performance requirements

Baseline 85 PS, 1.2L NA (DVVT, PFI) Gasoline engine

- 25% downsizing leads to 0.9L T/C engine (c. 70 kW/L)

- 50% downsizing leads to 0.6L T/C engine (c. 100 kW/L)

There is less opportunity for downsizing than in Europe

Extreme downsizing (160-200 kW/L) may not be needed…

Alternative cycle engines may be beneficial, e.g.

- 1.2L Atkinson cycle engine ilo 1.0L NA engine

- Use of Miller cycle ilo of highly downsized engines

Moderate downsizing

(e.g. Renault 90 TCe)

c.10% fuel economy benefit

Aggressive downsizing

(e.g. Ford EcoBoost)

c.20% fuel economy benefit Technology addition required to

mitigate NVH, driveability and real

world fuel economy issues

Future Powertrain – Mild Hybrid

48V Mild Hybrid may provide a good

balance of cost – benefit for the

Indian market

Future development at >15 kW will

include e-Creep and e-Cruise

Transmission side E-machine may

offer worthwhile benefits for India

Future Powertrain - Fuels

Fuels which can utilise the current distribution infrastructure and conventional engine technologies are

attractive

CNG

Immediate CO2 benefit possible due to fuel chemistry

Development of Gas Grid required to improve availability

Competing with domestic use for heating / cooking

Synthetized Hydrocarbon Fuel

Cleanly generated Hydrogen combined with CO2

Bio-fuel

Jatropha may be attractive for use in India (non-edible, hardy, able to grow on wasteland)

Development rate however is slow

Future Powertrain – Transmission

Significant growth in automatic transmissions (from <3% currently)

AMT showing highest gains, possible applications for E-clutch

83.6

1.5

9.8

2

2.3

0.8

16.4

2020 Transmission Market Share

MT S-AT AMT CVT DCT E-Clutch

Future (Powertrain) – Ancillaries…

Congested cities, low average cycle speed, high % time stationary

Energy flow analysis shows significance of A/C & Electrical loads in real world Indian driving cycles

For a small vehicle, driving a congested city cycle, more brake (crankshaft) energy is required to keep the driver

and passengers cool than is required to move the vehicle…

Future Powertrain – Long Term…?

Ultimately, powertrain solution will be E-drive

Indian government encouraging development of electrified vehicles

along with knowledge base and ‘make in India’

But…lots of challenges…

Medium term solution may include Range Extended Electric Vehicles

- E-drive characteristic suited to Indian market requirements

- Series hybrid efficiency suited to low speed transient cycles

- Single vehicle solution possible

- Reduced dependency on charging infrastructure

IDP9 ‘LowCAP’ - Concept Demonstration of a Low cost Auxiliary Power

Uni (APU)

- Tata motors 2-cylinder 624 cc PFI Gasoline engine

- Ashwoods integrated radial flux generator

- 23kW @ 80 degC

- 265 g/kWh ESFC @ 2500 rpm (10 kW)

Contents

India

Automotive Market


- Powertrain


Summary

Summary

Indian market is large with huge future growth potential

High fuel prices and congested cities mean that powertrain attribute requirements

are dominated by real world fuel economy and low speed driveability

BS6 and CAFE requirements will be a significant challenge

There is opportunity (and need) for tailored solutions

Thank You

powering india into the future€¦ · alternative cycle engines may be beneficial, e.g. - 1.2l...

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