poverty - institute for fiscal studies · poverty: the story under labour • after poverty rose...
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Poverty
David Phillips, IFSp ,
May 21st, 2010
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Poverty: the story under Labour
• After poverty rose between 2004/5 and 2007/8…
200 000 for each of pensioners and children– 200,000 for each of pensioners and children
– 200,000 for working age adults with children
– 400,000 for working age adults without children
• … it fell (slightly) during the first year of the… it fell (slightly) during the first year of the recession (2008/9)
Fell for children (100 000) and pensioners (200 000)– Fell for children (100,000) and pensioners (200,000)
– Rose for working age adults with children (100,000) and for working age adults without children (200 000)for working age adults without children (200,000)
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Poverty: what’s coming up?
• Recent trends in poverty rates
E titl t t b fit d t dit• Entitlements to benefits and tax credits
• Child poverty and the child poverty targetsp y p y g
• Poverty amongst adults
• Regional trends in poverty
– After adjusting for cost of livingj g g
• Prospects for poverty in 2009-10
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Defining poverty for HBAI
• Relative notion of poverty
– Individuals in households below 60% of the contemporary BHC– Individuals in households below 60% of the contemporary BHC and AHC median
• No account of depth of povertyNo account of depth of poverty
• Focus on rates rather than numbers
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Poverty fell in Labour’s first two termsPoverty fell in Labour s first two terms…
30%
25%
30%
15%
20%
5%
10%
0%
5%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20041980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
60% AHC Median 60% BHC Median
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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rose between 2004/5 and 2007/8… rose between 2004/5 and 2007/8 …
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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and fell a bit in 2008/9… and fell a bit in 2008/9
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Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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Across all thresholds?
70% of BHC
60% of BHC
50% of BHC
40% of BHCBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
Median1996-97 Rate 28 1 19 4 10 6 4 31996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
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Across all thresholds?
70% of BHC
60% of BHC
50% of BHC
40% of BHCBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
Median1996-97 Rate 28 1 19 4 10 6 4 31996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 (-0.1) +0.8
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
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Across all thresholds?
70% of BHC
60% of BHC
50% of BHC
40% of BHCBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
Median1996-97 Rate 28 1 19 4 10 6 4 31996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 (-0.1) +0.8
1 4 1 4 0 9 ( 0 2)Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 (-0.2)
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
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Across all thresholds?
70% of BHC
60% of BHC
50% of BHC
40% of BHCBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
Median1996-97 Rate 28 1 19 4 10 6 4 31996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 (-0.1) +0.8
1 4 1 4 0 9 ( 0 2)Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 (-0.2)
Labour III Change (+0.1) +1.2 +0.9 +1.0
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
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What about different poverty thresholds?
70% of BHC
60% of BHC
50% of BHC
40% of BHCBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
MedianBHC
Median1996-97 Rate 28 1 19 4 10 6 4 31996-97 Rate 28.1 19.4 10.6 4.3
Labour I Change -0.8 -1.0 (-0.1) +0.8
1 4 1 4 0 9 ( 0 2)Labour II Change -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 (-0.2)
Labour III Change (+0.1) +1.2 +0.9 +1.0
2008-09 Rate 25.9 18.1 10.4 5.9
Source: HBAI Data (FRS)
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40% t li t ?40% poverty line as severe poverty?
• Commentators have used fraction of people below 40% poverty line as indicator of ‘severe poverty’40% poverty line as indicator of severe poverty
– Suggest severe poverty increased under Labour
• But IFS research suggests this is not good evidence for such a claim
– Many with lowest measured incomes have fairly high living standards
– Small changes to the definition of HBAI income
• But stronger evidence ‘severe poverty’ increased• But stronger evidence severe poverty increased since 2004-05
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Growth in benefit entitlements 2007-08 to 2008-09
Basic State Pension
Single Pensioner on Pension Credit
Single Adult on JSA
Single Adult on IB
RPI inflationBHC Poverty Line
Part-time working Lone Parent, 1 child
Single Adult on JSA3.0%
Line3.6%
Non working couple 3 children
Non-working Lone Parent, 1 child
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%
Non-working couple, 3 children
Source: HBAI data
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B fit d t dit h i 2008/9Benefit and tax credit changes in 2008/9
• Increases in the generosity of tax credits
£175 increase in child element of CTC– £175 increase in child element of CTC
– £1,200 increase in the WTC threshold
– But an increase in tax credit taper to 39%
– These would reduce child poverty by 200,000p y y ,
• Increase in generosity of winter fuel payments
ld d b– Would reduce pensioner poverty by 40,000
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Child P tChild Poverty
• Child poverty fell by 100,000 in 2008–092 8 million (BHC) or 3 9 million (AHC) children in po ert– 2.8 million (BHC) or 3.9 million (AHC) children in poverty
– 21.8% (BHC) or 30.3% (AHC)
– Government targets are based on the BHC measure
• Fall in child poverty mostly due to declining risk of poverty for certain family typespoverty for certain family types
• But also fall in fraction of children living in workless households
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Child poverty targets
4 Target: Cut by half by 2010/11
33.5
4
ons)
Target: Cut by half by 2010/11
Target: Cut to 10% by 2020
22.5
3
n (m
illio
11.5
Chi
ldre
n
00.5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
C
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Child poverty
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Progress to date2010 Target nearly certain to be unmet
4IFS Projection: 3.1 million in
2020
33.5
4
ons)
Projection: 0.6 million away from target in 2010
2020
22.5
3
n (m
illio
11.5
Chi
ldre
n
00.5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
C
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Child poverty Progress to date Required path Projected
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2010 Target nearly certain to be unmet
HM-Treasury Projection: 3.5 million in 2020million in 2020
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( )The Child Poverty Act (2010)
• ‘Eradication’ of child poverty by 2020 is obligatory.
• Four constituent targets
– Relative child poverty less than 10%p y
– Absolute child poverty less than 5% (based on 2010/11)
Combined low income and material dep less than 5%– Combined low income and material dep. less than 5%
– Persistent poverty “approaching zero”
• Few details on coalition’s child poverty strategyFew details on coalition s child poverty strategy
– Strategy has to be published by 25th March 2011
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Pensioner poverty now at its lowest levelPensioner poverty now at its lowest level since the first half of the 1980s…
Number of pensioners living in poverty now:living in poverty now:
2.3 million (BHC)
1.8 million (AHC)
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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… and using incomes measured AHC the… and using incomes measured AHC the lowest of any group in society
40%45% Rate of poverty using
incomes measured AHC:
Pensioners: 16 0%
30%35%
Pensioners: 16.0%
20%25%
10%15%
Working-age non-parents: 19.1%
0%5%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20081980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Pensioners AHC Child AHC WAP AHC WANP AHC
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Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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Working-age adults without dependent children
18%20%
12%14%16%
8%10%12%
4%6%8%
0%2%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20041980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 200460% of AHC Median 60% of BHC Median
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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Working-age adults without dependent children
Source: HBAI Data (FES and FRS)
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Regional trends in poverty
• DWP publish regional poverty rates but do not account for differences in cost of livingaccount for differences in cost of living
• Here we make use of regional price indices d b O S f 200 0constructed by ONS for 2004-05.
– Unlikely that relative prices remained constant but better y pthan assuming same price level across country
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Region National
Poverty (BHC) in 2006-07 to 2008-09Region National
PricesNorth East 22.0%
West Midlands 21.9%
Wales 20.9%
East Midlands 20.7%East Midlands 20.7%
Yorkshire 20.6%
North West 20.3%
Northern Ireland 20.3%
London 17.7%
Scotland 16.9%Scotland 16.9%
South West 16.1%
East of England 15.1%
South East 12.9%
Total 18.1%Total 18.1%
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( )Poverty (BHC) in 2006-07 to 2008-09Region National RegionalRegion National
PricesRegional
PricesLondon (8) 17.7% 22.1%
West Midlands (2) 21.9% 21.1%
East Midlands (4) 20.7% 19.8%
North West (6) 20.3% 18.9%North West (6) 20.3% 18.9%
Northern Ireland (7) 20.3% 18.2%
North East (1) 22.0% 17.7%
Yorkshire (5) 20.6% 17.4%
Wales (3) 20.9% 17.4%
South West (10) 16.1% 17.0%South West (10) 16.1% 17.0%
East of England (11) 15.1% 16.1%
South East (12) 12.9% 15.2%
Scotland (9) 16.9% 14.6%
Total 18.1% 18.0%Total 18.1% 18.0%
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( )Poverty (BHC) using regional pricesRegion 1996-97 to 2006-07 to ChangeRegion 1996 97 to
1998-992006 07 to
2008-09Change
London 23.5% 22.1% -1.4%
West Midlands 19.4% 21.1% +1.7%
East Midlands 19.2% 19.8% +0.6%
North West 21.2% 18.9% -2.3%North West 21.2% 18.9% 2.3%
Northern Ireland - 18.2% n/a
North East 21.2% 17.7% -3.5%
Yorkshire 20.5% 17.4% -3.0%
Wales 19.0% 17.4% -1.6%
South West 19.8% 17.0% -2.8%South West 19.8% 17.0% 2.8%
East of England 16.5% 16.1% -0.5%
South East 15.6% 15.2% -0.5%
Scotland 17.8% 14.6% -3.1%
Total 19.4% 18.0% -1.4%Total 19.4% 18.0% 1.4%
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Regional trends in poverty by groupAfter adjusting for price differences:After adjusting for price differences:
• Child poverty
– Lowest in East of England, highest in London
– Fell most in North East rose in West MidlandsFell most in North East, rose in West Midlands
• Pensioner poverty– Lowest in Scotland, highest in London– Fell most in Scotland, fell least in London,
• Working-age non-parent povertyL t i S th E t hi h t i N th E t– Lowest in South East, highest in North East
– Rose least in Yorkshire, rose most in West Midlands
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Prospects for po ertProspects for poverty
• Further increases in unemployment will likely push up poverty amongst working-age non-parentsup poverty amongst working-age non-parents
• May see falls in median income.
• Further real increases in benefit entitlements.
Policy measures– Policy measures
– Inflation fell further in 2009-10
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Growth in benefit entitlements 2008-09 to 2009-10
Basic State PensionRPI inflationBHC Poverty
Li
Si l Ad lt IB
Single Pensioner on Pension Credit
RPI inflation0.5%Line
????
Single Adult on JSA
Single Adult on IB
Part-time working Lone Parent, 1 child
Non-working couple, 3 children
Non-working Lone Parent, 1 child
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
g p
Source: HBAI data
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Poverty: summary
• Relative poverty fell for the first time since 2004/5
Pensioner po ert do n 200 000– Pensioner poverty down 200,000
– Child poverty down 100,000
– Working-age non-parent poverty up 200,000
• Poverty has fallen most under in Scotland and the North East but risen in the MidlandsNorth East but risen in the Midlands
• May expect 2009-10 to continue pattern of poverty changes seen in 2008-09 p y g
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