poverty & aspirations failure - university of glasgow · pdf fileis it that `the poor may...
TRANSCRIPT
POVERTY AND
ASPIRATIONS FAILURE
BSI workshop
Patricio S. Dalton (Tilburg University, CAGE)
Sayantan Ghosal (University of Glasgow)
Anandi Mani (University of Warwick, CAGE)
Take home message
1. Appadurai 2004; Ray 2006: aspirations failures
2. This paper models aspirations failures, the failure to aspire to one’s own potential.
3. It is not a paper on aspirations gaps: aspirations > achievements (Ray, 2006; Genicot-Ray, 2011; Bogliacino-Ortoleva, 2011).
4. Poverty increases the likelihood that a person gets trapped in an aspirations failure.
5. Poverty is the cause of poor people’s lack of aspirations and failure to realize their full potential.
Poverty Traps: Two views
Persistent Poverty Due to External Constraints
Credit Market Imperfections, Poor Nutrition, Network effects,
Institutional Failures, Corruption, Beliefs Systems, Culture,…
Persistent Poverty due to Internal Constraints
myopia, lack of willpower, lack of aspirations often cited as traits
the poor likely suffer from.
Lack of Self-Control among the poor could lead to Poverty Trap
(Banjeree-Mullainathan, 2010; Bernheim-Ray-Yelteki, 2011)
60 % of Americans think that the poor "are lazy or lack
willpower" (World Values Survey, Alesina et al., 2001).
Evidence of Poverty & Aspirations
Poor adults have low aspirations:
low-income urban neighborhoods in America (MacLeod,
1995) and the UK (Cabinet Office, 2008)
Youths in Jamaica (Walker, 1997)
Rural Ethiopia (Frankerberger et al., 2007; Bernard et al.
2011)
Poor kids have high aspirations:
75% of the 14 year-old Ethiopians said that they want to
go to college. Only 3 % actually go.
Lack of aspirations – Cause or
Consequence of Poverty?
Is it that the poverty persists because the poor lack hope
and motivation to pull themselves out of poverty? OR…
Is it that `the poor may exhibit the same basic weaknesses
and biases as do people from other walks of life, except
that in poverty, ....the same behaviors ...lead to worse
outcomes’ ? (Bertrand et al., 2004)
Poverty can curtail the capacity to aspire.
(Appadurai, 2004)
What do we do? In a nutshell
James and Tom are born with the same innate:
Preferences
Abilities
Ambitions/Aspirations
Imperfections to make decisions (none is homo-economicus)
But…James is born poor and Tom rich.
James is more likely to aspire, achieve and put effort sub
optimally, i.e. below his potential.
Low aspirations may be a rational response of the poor,
but they may also be caused by the interaction between
poverty and a behavioral bias in setting aspirations.
Related papers
Ray (2006) provides an exposition of how socially
determined aspirations contribute to poverty
persistence.
Closely related papers on aspirations include
Bogliacino-Ortoleva (2011), Genicot-Ray (2011)
and Stark (2006).
Preferences
Benefit from final wealth
Benefit of reaching a specific level of
final wealth
Aspirations are reference points
reference-dependent value function
Cost of effort
Cost of effort
How Poverty Imposes External
Constraints
Final wealth is proportional to initial wealth and the factor of
proportionality is determined by effort.
What determines individual aspirations?
How do we model aspirations?
(effort, aspirations) choice: Normative
Benchmark
The value function is irrelevant in ranking
effort of a rational decision maker
(effort, aspirations) choice: Behavioral
Bias in setting aspirations
Characterizing the set of rational
solutions
Characterizing the set of behavioral
solutions
Internal Constraints and Aspirations
Failure
ASPIRATIONS FAILURE
How Poverty Exacerbates an
Aspirations Failure?
How Poverty Exacerbates an
Aspirations Failure?
Net benefit of putting effort Net benefit of doing nothing
Aspirations Threshold
Aspiration-Based Poverty Traps
ASPIRATIONS FAILURE: Low effort is sub-obtimal
Wealth-Based Poverty Traps
The conditions of poverty are so stringent, that aspirations don’t act
as a constraint. Low effort is optimal.
Policy Implications
Room for policies that shock internal constraints (such as aspirations), in addition to relaxing external constraints.
"failure to address the psychosocial determinants of human behavior is often the weakest link in social policy initiatives. Simply providing ready access to resources does not mean that people will
take advantage of them.” (Albert Bandura, 2009, The Psychologist)
Examples:
Changing Initial Aspirations (of Parents, for instance, like in SPOKE Program in UK).
Helping to internalize the path-way from aspirations, effort and achievement. (e.g. working with role models)
Conclusion
The American dream may be stifled in equilibrium….
In a context in which:
1. no initial innate differences in aspirations, ambitions, preferences and abilities between the poor and the rich.
2. everybody can “make it” (i.e. reach their aspirations)
Initial external constraints make more likely that the poor end up holding low aspirations and do not realize their full potential.
The 60 % of Americans who think that poor are poor because they are “lazy” are likely to be drawing biased inferences from an equilibrium outcome caused by poverty itself.
Thank you for your attention!