poultry market overview and outlook chris dickinson120214 1
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
State of the Poultry Industry
Chris Dickinson NFU
AHDB Outlook Conference 2014
The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Agenda
1. Size and scale
2. Where we have come from?
3. Industry growth
4. Future challenges & opportunities
5. NFUs work
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Poultry Industry facts and figures Welcome to the UKs most consumed meat poultry accounts for
41% of total meat consumption (pork 30%)
1.4 million tonnes of broiler meat produced in 2013, 35% more than
in 1990s
189,000 tonnes of turkey meat produced in 2013
80% self-sufficient in poultry meat
The largest poultry company 2 Sisters Food Group employs over
5,000 people and its revenue for 2012 was 3 billion
The industry uses around 4 million tonnes of wheat each year
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Industry breakdown 2 Sisters Food Group 6.1 million birds per week
Moy Park 4.5 million
Faccenda 1.9 million
Cargill (Sun Valley) 1.7 million
Banham Poultry 600,000
Frank Bird Ltd 500,000
Highbury 400,000
IHP 400,000
Crown Poultry 300,000
Gafoor Poultry 200,000
Traditional Norfolk Poultry 60,000
Total 16.51million birds per week 75% Integrated (1.00/m2/wk)
UK slaughter approx 17 million birds per week 25% Independent (91p/kg lwt)
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Market Split 85% of birds standard or standard plus (+)
Stocked at up to 38kg/m2; typical av growth rate of 60 gms/day
2.4kg liveweight @ 40 days. 1.8 FCR, 5% mortality
= 100 110 p/m2/week; windows approx 60% of sheds
14% higher welfare eg Waitrose, M&S (-)
Slower growing less than 45 g/day
Enriched environment, RSPCA Freedom Foods
3% Free Range (-)
2.4kg @ 56 days 50% of life free range; 27.5 kg/m2
1% Organic (+)
2.4 kg @ 80 days
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Inside a modern day shed
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Driving growth factors
Rising demand
Well integrated
Un-subsidised
Dovetails with mixed farms
Quick turnarounds
Opportunity for growth
Growth in renewables
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Trends in broiler chick placings
943
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
19
93
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Millions of chicks
Source: Defra Hatcheries Survey
UK broiler chick placings trends
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Rising broiler slaughterings
902
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
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Million birds
Source: Defra Poultry Slaughterhouse Survey
UK broiler slaughterings annual trends
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Resulting in higher production levels
1388
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
19
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000 tonnes
Source: Defra Poultry Slaughterhouse Survey
UK broiler production annual trends
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Reducing import requirements in 2013
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000 tonnes
Source: Defra & HMRC
Chicken meat imports volume - fresh & frozen 2012 2013
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Firm poultry meat consumption
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
19
85
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19
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%
Source: Defra Production and Supply Balance
Share of meat consumption
Poultry Pork Beef Lamb
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Latest trends in chicken consumption
-3.1
30.4
2.8 0.9
-25.8
5.2
13.2
7.6 8.9
-18.6
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Chicken Organic Free Range Standard Value
% change Y-O-Y
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Average % change in retail purchases - Fresh Chicken
Quantity Expenditure
52 weeks ending 5th Jan 2014
1.1
23.7
18.0
4.2
-29.9
3.2 1.2
19.6
6.1
-32.0 -40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Chicken Organic Free Range Standard Value
% change Y-O-Y
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Average % change in retail purchases - Fresh Chicken
Quantity Expenditure
12 weeks ending 5th Jan 2014
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Poultry Industry confidence
27
36
7
24 23 28 30
35
23
0
27 22
16
30
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Arable Dairy Beef / Sheep Horticulture Mixed arable& livestock
Pigs Poultry
Co
nfi
de
nc
e s
co
re
(-1
00
ne
ga
tive
to
+ 1
00
p
os
itiv
e)
Main farm sector Short-term (1 year)Mid-term (3 years)
NFU confidence survey Overall poultry more confident than other
livestock sectors
Mid-term confidence might have been boosted by the perception that
tight supplies will keep agricultural commodities at relatively high levels
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Future Challenges
&
Opportunities
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Future challenges
Feed price volatility
Current surge of
investment
Public
perception/image
Need to avoid
potential over-
production
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Campylobacter
FSA launched Refreshed Strategy
to Reduce Campylobacteriosis from
Poultry
Whole supply chain must work
together to reduce levels
Top priority for the FSA
Peter Kendall, Mike Bailey & Andy
Robertson have met with Catherine
Brown, CEO of the FSA
Potential Edwina Curry Moment
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Antibiotic Use Threats of antibiotic resistance and growing concern about antibiotic
use
Consumer misunderstanding about the role of vaccines in the food
chain
1 person dies every 20 minutes in Europe due to resistance - 25,000
people year.
Human use: most important contributor to AMR in human pathogens
Led to Lion Code and Red Tractor Assurance current proposal on
tightening their codes on medicine use and reporting
Work with RUMA Responsible Use of Antibiotics in Agriculture
Easy story to spin e.g Daily Mail misleading articles
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The most over used statistic in the
global food industry?
The U.N. projects that
world population will be
9.3bn by 2050
With nearly all of this
growth in developing
countries
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Feeding the world?
Cumulative meat consumption
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
199
5
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200
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200
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202
1
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
eat
co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
tho
usan
d t
on
nes)
Beef and veal (cwe) Pigmeat (cwe) Poultry meat (rtc) Sheepmeat(cwe)
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
The UKs there already
Poultry, 41%
Pork, 30%
Beef & Veal , 23%
Lamb & Mutton, 6%
Share of meat consumption - 2012
Source: Defra Production and Supply Balance
Poultry - most consumed meat
in the UK accounting for 40%
of total meat consumption
Why? value for money,
versatility and easy to cook
Relatively strong performance
for poultry in the last five years
in terms both volume and values
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
NFU work
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Poultry Industry Programme
Bright future ahead
NFU - engaging with
the next generation
Future Poultry board
Key note speakers &
farm visits
Plan for next PIP
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
NFU Poultry Publications
Poultry Forum Magazine
(bi-monthly)
Poultry Highlights weekly
e-newsletter
Poultry Business Bulletin
weekly e-newsletter
Poultry Section NFU
Online
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The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members
Thank you any questions?