EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Potentials and constrains for redevelopment of energy systems

within Serbia and SEEC`s

Main economic and energy indicators Prof. Dr. Milovan Studovic, UoB/EFT Belgrade

11 April 2011

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Contents:

• Energy Community of SEEC • Economic state within SEEC• Resources within SEEC• Main macro-economic and energy indicators• Volumes and effectiveness of electricity end-use• Electricity end-use by sectors• Electricity consumption in economic recession• Electricity generating capacity, by technology and fuels• Trend of new entrants and needed investment•Conclusion

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Demographic and economic meaning of the SEEC Region

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• Members of EC SEE:- Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia, including the Province of Kosovo and Metohia, with 53 million people, among which as:

• Medium developed country (LDC) are:- Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Serbia*, with 41 million population and 6200 €/capita, and

• Low development countries (LDC) are:- Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and the Province Kosovo and Metohia, with 12 million and 3000 €/cap. With 22 % in population, they contribute only 12 % in GDP.

• These countries with so-called “electricity transit” countries: Greece, Hungary and Slovenia, as high developed countries (HDC), with 23.5 million and more than 16 000 €/cap comprise the Region of SEEC.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Economy and energy (1)

• Long-term and insufficiently effective socio-economic transition in the countries of EC SEE, imposed by a significant change of structure and decline in economic activities

• Lack of investments in new economic-effective and energy-efficient generation technologies, the global financial and economic crisis at the end of 2008 has further slowed down the recovery of economic activity

• Significant decline in economic activities and lack of investments in new modern production technologies, in past time and in economic crisis, has a direct impact on development and operation of the energy sector, particularly electric power utilities in most EC SEE

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Economy and energy (2)

• Decline of manufacturing activities, particularly in energy-intensive industries, has resulted in decreasing consumption of electricity, that its leading to significant reduction of electricity deficit, within SEEC Region which, along with the problems of financing, has caused postponement of planned generation capacity (GC) projects and a slowdown in ongoing projects.

• Region of SEEC need target oriented financial supports from EU Community.

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Specific energy consumption within EU, SEEC`s and Serbia*

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Hydro potential within SEEC`s

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

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Structure of power generating capacities by technology

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Share of power generation technology in electricity production

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Share of fossil fuels in electricity production

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Specific electricity consumption by sector

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Economic effectiveness of electricity end-use

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Share of natural gas in electricity and heat production

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Electricity balance within Region of SEEC`s beyond 2005.

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Relationships between GDP, Ind.VA and ED during recession 2009

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Expecting growth of electricity demand related to 2008

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

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Dynamics of a new entrants and decommissioning of old TPP

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Specific and cumulative investment and additional electricity production within Region of SEEC`s

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Instead of Conclusion-Conditions in Serbia after ten years (1)

Is the energy sector a better side of Serbian reality?

• Worse demographic and economic conditions• Ruined industry, no valuable tradable products, high unemployment • Low exports, Large national debt, high import of oil, gas and high

quality coal,• No Strategy for national economy, nor for deindustrialization of

main sectors and exporting industrial branches,• Low Global Competitiveness Index: for infrastructure pillars (score

of 3.39, rank 93 from 139 countries), • Corruption, inefficient government bureaucracy, policy instability,

access to financing, tax regulation, crime and theft, and inflation are most problematic factors for doing business in Serbia,

• High standard of education in mathematics and science, but withhighest brain drain (rank 136 from 139 countries).

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Instead of Conclusion-Conditions in Serbia after ten years (2)

Is the energy sector a better side of Serbian reality?

• Main subsectors of energy sectors renewed, especially electric power systems and DHS`s, thanks to valuable financial support from the European Community (EAR) and high professionalism within foreign and Serbian companies

• Lack of complete and reliable Energy statistics.

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European UnionSustainable Energy Week

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Energy sector today related to Serbian Energy sector development Strategy up to 2015 (December 2004/May 2005) (1)

• TPP of EPS increased electricity production from 21.5 TWh (2001) to 25.5 TWh (2008), through realization of the First-Basic Priority program defined Strategy paper (+++)

• Second, as Target oriented Priority program, focused on Rational energy use and improving end-use energy efficiency (substitution of electricity use with gas for space heating, reduction of T/D losses of heat and electricity and introduction of new and more efficient electrical appliances (+partially), SEEA has been supported and funded by the EAR, without National REU Program and Fund (-!)

• Third-Specific Priority Program, focussed on massive use of RES, efficient gas use by CHP-municipal DHS (-!)

• Fourth-Optional Priority Program, focussed on the investment in new CCGT plants, to satisfy higher electricity demand for desirabledevelopment of Serbian economy, especially exporting industry (-!).

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION

European UnionSustainable Energy Week

11-15 April 2011

Energy sector today related to Serbian Energy sector development Strategy up to 2015 (December 2004/May 2005) (2)

• Fifth-medium term Capital intensive Priority Program, new TPP (“Kolubara”, “Kostolac” lignite), new supply and distribution gas pipe lines, new HPP (on our and neighboring rivers, including pump-storage plants). (---!?).

• Lack of complete and reliable Energy statistics

• All what has not been done is the responsibility of the MoME and the Serbian Government.

• The Energy sector is the supporting sector of the national economy.

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