potential future regional modeling center cumulative analysis

WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008

Potential Future Regional Modeling Center

Cumulative Analysis

Ralph Morris

ENVIRON International Corporation

Novato, California

[email protected]

Workshop on Regional Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Studies

Western Regional Air Partnership

Denver, Colorado

July 29, 2008


Purpose• To discuss potential activities to be included in a 2009

Scope of Work (SoW) for the next generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)

• One potential future RMC task could be to provide regional air quality modeling support to the air quality components of NEPA and PSD modeling activities:– Ensures consistent approaches– Uses latest inventories, meteorology and models– Transparent assessments in the open– Serves as a repository of databases– Accounts for cumulative assessment across all potential new

projects in western U.S.• This work would be broken into a Core Effort that

provides regional modeling support across western States and Optional Efforts to provide project-specific support as requested


Background• Oil and Gas (O&G) development in the western states has grown

substantially in recent years

• Under NEPA, new O&G development projects must disclose potential environment impacts due to the Project alone and Project plus all other new developments in the region (Cumulative Assessment)

• New sources also need to estimate their potential AQ and AQRV impacts under PSD permitting process

• NEPA and PSD not limited to O&G development projects


Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• Jonah Infill Drilling Project EIS completed 2006

(Sublette County in Southwest Wyoming)– AQ and AQRV analysis using AERMOD & CALPUFF

• Draft Supplemental EIS for Pinedale Anticline development project completed in 2007– AERMOD and CALPUFF used

• In 2005, elevated winter ozone measurements are recorded in Sublette County (repeated in 2006 and 2008) – Pinedale Anticline SEIS performs ozone modeling

assessment– Final Pinedale Anticline SEIS released June 2008

showed exceedances of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS (0.075 ppm)


Running 8-Hour Ozone at Jonah Monitoring Site February 2005

8-Hour Ozone Measured at the Jonah Monitor in Southwest Wyoming: February, 2005

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Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• BLM Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G development

projects in SWWY– Modeling Protocol proposes AERMOD and CALPUFF (NRG,

2006)– Need to address ozone due to high ozone measurements in

Feb/Mar 2005/2006• CAMx model applied for just ozone using 36/12/4 km grid• 4 km ozone impacts in SWWY

• Questions Regarding Adequacy of Emissions in SWWY– Current-year WRAP Phase II O&G emissions deficient in VOC

emissions (designed for regional haze modeling)– Future-year Reasonable Foreseeable Development (RFD)

scenarios from past EISs also deficient in VOCs• VOCs not reported in RFD inventories as ozone modeling wasn’t

performed

– Need to redo AERMOD, CALPUFF and CAMx ozone modeling w/ corrected inventories for Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G EISs


Oil and Gas Development in SWWY


Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY

• 2007 BLM Continental Divide-Creston (CD-C) EIS in SWWY– Propose to use CMAQ or CAMx for all far-field AQ

and AQRV as well as for ozone (No CALPUFF)– Detailed emissions updates for 2005 and 2006 in

SWWY (O&G VOC emissions increase from 200 TPY from WRAP Phase II to >100,000 TPY)

– CMAQ/CAMx evaluation comparison and model selection

• Updated SWWY O&G emissions to be used in revised Hiawatha and Moxa Arch EIS modeling– Drop CALPUFF and use CAMx for ozone as well as

far-field AQ/AQRV


CD-C EIS 36/12/4 km Modeling Domains

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CAMx 36/12/4 Modeling Domain

36 km: 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)

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CD-C 12/4 km Modeling Domain

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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain

12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)

C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors

-1440 -1320 -1200 -1080 -960 -840 -720 -600 -480

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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain

12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)

C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors


Relationship with other future RMC Activities

• Much of emissions, meteorological and air quality regional modeling to support EIS and PSD needs is also applicable to information needed for 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIPs/TIPs and 2012 regional haze SIP checks.

• Regional 36/12 km modeling can be used to provide BCs to states for focused 12/4 km modeling to address 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIP attainment demonstration, including regional control strategies

• New 36/12 km base year and 2013 and 2018 year modeling can be used in the 2012 regional haze SIP check analyses

• Rural/remote areas and Class I areas can be analyzed down to 12/4 km resolution for impacts and regional control strategies across state, tribal, and federal lines

• Science updates of the future RMC can be implemented in EIS modeling

• Documentation and delivery of results through WRAP TSS


RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Core Support for EIS/PSD and Other Regional Air Quality

Management– Periodic Updates of Base-Year and Future-Year Emissions

Inventories – meets key need for emissions data management• Update Project-Specific information as it becomes available• Repository for emissions data and modeling files

– Base-Year 36/12 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling• Western US 12 km Domain

– SMOKE Emissions and CMAQ/CAMx AQ Modeling on 36/12 km domain for Base- and Future-Years

• Model Performance Evaluation• Visibility and AQ Projections• BCs for more local-scale 12/4 km domains

– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS


WRAP 36/12 km Modeling Domains

• RMC would periodically update 36/12 km modeling and provide BCs to local-scale 12/4 modeling studies– EIS

– PSD

– NAAQS

– Other?


RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling

• Optional Support to EIS/PSD Studies– Project-Specific Modeling Protocol– 4 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling

• MM5/WRF Data Processing to Project-Specific 12/4 km Domain

– SMOKE Emissions Modeling 12/4 km– CMAQ/CAMx 12/4 km Base- and Future-Year Modeling

• Zero-Out or Source-Apportionment modeling to address project-specific and cumulative new source impacts

• Address Ambient Standards, PSD I and II, Visibility, Deposition, ANC, etc.

– Documentation of Results in Technical Support Documents (TSDs) and/or

– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS


RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Additional Optional RMC Support to EIS/PSD

– Processing of MM5/12/4 km data for CALMET– Processing of surface, upper-air and precipitation data

for CALMET– Processing of future-year project-specific and cumulative

emissions for CALPUFF– CALMET meteorological modeling or use of new MM5

translator to map MM5 data directly to CALPUFF inputs– CALPUFF modeling of project-specific and cumulative

sources• Post-processing for Ambient Standards, PSD Increments,

visibility, deposition and ANC– Documentation in a TSD and/or– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS


Relationship with Regional AQ Planning Efforts

• EIS and PSD Modeling Efforts– Continuous Support Needed

• New 35 µg/m3 24-h PM2.5 NAAQS (revised 2006)– New Area Designations:November 2009– New SIPs: April 2012– Attainment Deadline: April 2015

• New 0.075 ppm 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS (revised March 2008)– New Area Designations:2010 (2007-2009 data)– New SIPs: 2013– Attainment Deadline: 2016 (Moderate) to 2030 (Extreme)

• Regional Haze 2012 SIP Check analyses


• Potential 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas under the new 2008 0.075 (pink) NAAQS [and 0.070 ppm (pink+blue) NAAQS]

8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

Current nonattainment areas under 1997 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone NAAQS


2006 PM2.5 NAAQS

PM2.5 NAAQS

1997 PM2.5 NAAQS


Next Generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)

• Questions

• Comments

• Discussion