potential for renewable energy development in indonesia
TRANSCRIPT
Potential for renewable energy development in Indonesia
Yayasan Mitra Hijau dan Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)Workshop on the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) in Indonesia
Hotel Aryaduta, Jakarta – 14 Februari 2018
Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia(The Indonesian Renewable Energy Society)
Gedung BPSDM Lantai 5Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav.49, Jakarta 10340Ph: 021-38901106,38901107 ; Fax : 021-38901108 E-mail: [email protected] ; http: //www.meti.or.id
Dr. Surya DarmaChairman of METI
Outline
• Indonesia RE Potential
• Indonesia Energy Problems
• Target of Emission Reduction
• Lessons Learnt From National Energy Policy
• Why RE?
Indonesia RE Potential
RE Potential
Energi FosilCadangan terbukti:• Minyak Bumi : 3,6 miliar barel• Gas Bumi : 100,3 TSCF• Batubara : 7,2 miliar ton Produksi:• Minyak Bumi : 288 Juta barel• Gas Bumi : 2,97 TSCF• Batubara : 434 juta tonDiperkirakan akan habis:• Minyak Bumi : 13 tahun• Gas Bumi : 34 tahun• Batubara : 16 tahun
Panas BumiSumber Daya : 12,3
GW
Reserve : 17,2
GWPLTA,
PLTM/H
75 GW
Surya
207,8 GWp
Energi Laut
17,9 GWAngin
60,6 GW
Kapasitas terpasang Pembangkit saat ini
Rencana Pembangunan Pembangkit
59.656 MW
35.000 MW+7.500 MW
New project
PLTA 5,124 GW
PLTMH 0,162 GW
(7,07%)
0,085 GWp (0,04%) 1,64 GW (5,6%)
1,1 MW (0,002%) 1,78 GW (5,5%) 0,0 MW (0,000%)
443,2 GW
Bioenergi
32,6 GW
8,80 GW (2% terhadap
potensi)
BBN
200 Ribu
Bph
Indonesia’s Energy Problems
• Energy Resources Conflicts – for domestic or export?• Declining oil & gas production• Limited energy access and infrastructures• Imported fuel and LPG Dependences • Uncompetitive NRE prices• Low RE utilisation• Inefficient energy utilisation• Low NRE technology mastery• Geopolitical condition and environmental issues• National energy reserves
Kehutanan, Gambut, Pertanian 680 Juta Ton
Sektor Energi 30 Juta Ton
Limbah 48 Juta Ton
Industri dan Transportasi 9 Juta Ton
Melalui pengembangan
energi baru terbarukan dan
pelaksanaan konservasi
energi dari seluruh sektor
Komitmen Pemerintah untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca
pada tahun 2020
26%(767 juta Ton) 41%Upaya sendiri Upaya sendiri dan
dukungan internasional
Perpres No. 61/2011
RAN-GRK
Perpres No. 71/2011
GHG Inventory dan MRV
Kehutanan, Gambut, Pertanian 680 Juta Ton
Sektor Energi 30 Juta Ton
Limbah 48 Juta Ton
Industri dan Transportasi 9 Juta Ton
Melalui pengembangan
energi baru terbarukan dan
pelaksanaan konservasi
energi dari seluruh sektor
Komitmen Pemerintah untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca
pada tahun 2030
29%(856 juta Ton) 41%Upaya sendiri Upaya sendiri dan
dukungan internasional
Perpres No. 61/2011
RAN-GRK & UU No.16/2016
Perpres No. 71/2011
GHG Inventory dan MRV
KOMITMEN PENURUNAN EMISI GRK NASIONAL (UU 16Tahun 2016 – Paris Agreement)
Lessons Learnt From National Energy Policy
- Intensification
- Energy Diersification
- Energy Conservation
- Pricing Policy
- Environment
- Mostly using Petrol (77%)
Energy Policy (KUBE) 1980
1. To guarantee the energy availability through for
domestic need for domestic need „
2. To improve quality services „
3. To guarantee long term sustainability of energy
supply energy supply „
4. To guarantee energy for export purposes „
5. To conserve and preserve the environment.
Indonesian Government Aims
(2006)
2013
2025
20505%
46%
31%
18%
23%
25%30%
22%
31%
20%25%
24%
Total 194 MTOE
Total 400 MTOE
Total 1000 MTOE
Power Plant: 51 GW
Energy Consumption: 0.8 TOE/kap
Electricity Consumption: 776 KWh/kap
Electrification Ratio (2014): 84.33%
Power Plant:115 GW
Energy Consumption: 1.4 TOE/kap
Electricity Consumption: 2,500 KWh/kap
Electrification Ratio (2020): closely to 100%
Power Plant:430 GW
Energy Consumption: 3.2 TOE/kap
Electricity Consumption: 7,000 KWh/kap
New and Renewable Energy
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Data Source: National Energy
Council, 2015
LONG TERM PLANNING OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
11
Potential of RE Development
RE Target by 2025 - KEN (PP 79/2014) dan RUEN (Perpres
22/2017)
13
23%Bauran EBT
92,2MTOE
69,2MTOE
23,0MTOE
Biofuel 13,69*)juta kilo liter
Biomassa 8,4juta ton
Biogas 489,8juta m3
CBM46,0
mmscfd
Listrik EBT
45 GW
1. PLT Panas Bumi, 7,2 GW
2. PLT Hidro, 17,9 GW
3. PLT Mikrohidro, 3 GW
4. PLT Bioenergi, 5,5 GW
5. PLT Surya, 6,5 GW
6. PLT Angin, 1,8 GW
7. PLT EBT lainnya, 3 GW
EBT
Minyak
Gas
Batubara*) tidak termasuk biofuel untuk pembangkit
listrik sebesar 0,7 juta kL tahun 2025
23%
25%30%
22%
~ 400MTOE
Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik Nasional 135 GW
Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik EBT 45 GW
Minyak25% ~ 96 MTOE
Gas 22% ~ 76,75
MTOE
Batubara22% ~ 113,45 MTOE
EBT23% ~ 84,15 MTOEB
aura
nE
nerg
iPri
mer
(PP 7
9/2014)
KomposisiPembangkitan
60% Fosil 40% EBT
46,8 GW
2025: 115 GW
68,2 GW
Mandate of Energy Law 30/2007: GR No. 79/2014
Why RE?
INFORMATION TO FACILITATE CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTANDING
! Reduction Level # Unconditional Reduction , conditional Reduction, type, Coverage, Scope, Baseline, Fair and Ambitious
! Key Assumption in Mitigation # Metric Applied, Methodology for estimating emission, Baseline, Assumption Used for
Projection and Policy Scenario 2020-2030, Coverage of Emission Reduction, Projected BAU and emission reduction from
each sector category
Projected BAU and emission reduction from each sector category
• Government
Commitment to
reduce CO2
Emision - GHG
• RE is one of the
main target in CO2
emision reduction
Why RE?
• Competitiveness of RE Energy Price;
• Political Will to Intensify Renewable Energy Utilization;
• Shortage of Competence Human Resources;
• Absence of Technology and Research & Development Supports;
• Commitment of renewable incentives;
• Integrated Energy Planning;
• Regulation and permits.
• Environment and social issues.
• Needs of huge funding and encourage domestic Banks participation.
16
Challenges of RE
Recommendation
1. Regulation and Policy
1. Pricing
2. Fiscal incentive
3. Energy use dis-incentive
4. BOOT scheme?
5. Bidding scheme
6. No RPS
7. RE Development Fund
2. Coordination interdepartmental
So, don’t Lets Indonesia suffer for energy. Please
use RE for the better Indonesia
Thank you
Dr. Surya Darma