Potential benefits of long-distance electricity transmission in China for air quality and climate

Wei Peng*, Denise Mauzerall, Jiahai Yuan, Yu Zhao, Meiyun Lin, Qiang Zhang* Science, Technology and Environmental Policy Program

Woodrow Wilson of Public and International Affairs Princeton University

33rd USAEE Annual MeetingPittsburgh, PA

Oct 2015

2

China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges

Local Issue

Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010

Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent yearsChina declare(d) war against air pollution

Air pollution

Global Issue

Severity: World largest carbon

emitter

Recent action: US-China Climate deal

Peak carbon emissions by 2030

Climate

3

Smog Events

Tiananmen Square, Beijing, Jan 2013

Source:http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/29/asia/gallery/beijing-smog/

4

China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges

Local Issue

Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010 (GBD 2010)

Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent yearsChina declare(d) war against air pollution

Air pollution

Global Issue

Severity: World largest carbon

emitter

Recent action: US-China Climate deal

Peak carbon emissions by 2030

Climate

5

Electricity Transmission Corridors for Air Pollution Control

12 west-to-east transmission lines to reduce eastern coal power generation and the associated air pollution

UHV: ultra-high-voltagei.e. 1000KV AC or ±800KV DC

6

Objective

- Estimate air quality and climate benefits of the proposed transmission lines, if powered only by coal v.s mostly by renewables

- Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the energy-by-wire strategy to the most commonly-used bulk energy transfer strategy at present, i.e. coal-by-rail

7

Scenario Name Explanation

Base Case, BASE Actual electricity production and emissions in 2010

Eastern provinces Western provinces

Coal-by-rail, CbR - small, inefficient coal units+ large, efficient coal units No change

Energy-by-wire

Coal-by-wire, CbW

- small, inefficient coal units

+ large, efficient coal units

(RE+Coal)-by-wire, (RE+C)bW

+ renewable (wind and hydro) and large coal units

Method: Scenario analysis

8

Method: Integrated assessment

ΔElectricity generation

ΔAir pollutant emissions

ΔSimulated air quality

ΔMortality impact

ΔMonetized benefits

Air quality benefits:

ΔElectricity Generation ΔCO2 emissions ΔMonetized value

Climate benefits:

Cost: Annualized transmission and production costs

IM: -1/3 EX: double

CO2(national)

Coal-based: -1%(RE+C)bW: -3%

SO2(IM+EX) and NOx(IM+EX)

Coal-based: -3%, -7% (RE+C)bW: -6%, -9%

9

Surface PM2.5 simulated using regional air pollution modeling (WRF-Chem)

• Energy-by-wire: 2-3 μg/m3 reduction (2-7%) in annual mean PM2.5, ~1μg/m3 greater reduction that CbR

• (RE+C)bW avoids the PM2.5 increase in exporting provinces

10

Air quality and climate benefits

11

Air quality and climate benefits

Air-pollution-

related deaths:

National total -2%

20% greater

12

Air quality and climate benefits

Carbon emissions:National total -3%

3 times greater

13

Air quality and climate benefits

Air-pollution-related deaths

Carbon emissions

Monetized value

Value of Statistical Life (million US$): low - $0.09 (national); high - $0.25 (Beijing)

Social Cost Carbon: low - $12 (2.5% discount rate); high - $54 (5% discount rate)

14

Cost-effectiveness: Energy-by-wire relative to CbR

Co-control air pollution and carbon emissions:

- (RE+C)bW becomes the most cost-effective strategy when high VSL and SCC are used

- Drop in wind power costs will improve its cost-effectiveness

15

Conclusions

• (RE+C)bW compared to coal-based options: 20% greater annual air-pollution-related deaths, and three times larger annual carbon emission reduction Already most cost-competitive based on high VSL and SCC

• (RE+C)bW may become more cost-competitive in the future with the increase in VSL with income level and the decrease in renewable technology price

• Inferior long-term climate impact of coal-based strategy: substantial committed carbon emissions of new investment in coal power plants

16

Thanks!

Manuscript available upon request