poster egu 2012

1
Fl d Ch t i ti f th H Flood Characteristics of the Ha Flood Characteristics of the Ha Flood Characteristics of the Ha suman fs@y suman fs@y suman_fs@y Abstract Abstract Abstract Haors are large saucer-shaped flood plain depressions located in the North-East region of Bangladesh During the dry season Haors are large saucer shaped flood plain depressions located in the North East region of Bangladesh. During the dry season during the rainy season they are used as fisheries The hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient (K) flood m during the rainy season they are used as fisheries. The hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient (K), flood m (TP) are assessed for different river floods. Using these characteristics an integrated flood index is developed. The flood index (TP) are assessed for different river floods. Using these characteristics an integrated flood index is developed. The flood index f fl di Th fl d id i th hi h t i th Jdk Ri (fl d id 21) d th l t i th S i Ri (fl d id of flooding. The flood index is the highest in the Jaduka River (flood index 21) and the lowest in the Someswari River (flood ind of flooding. The flood index is the highest in the Jaduka River (flood index 21) and the lowest in the Someswari River (flood ind t td f th lt f th G l Ci l ti Mdl (GCM ) ECh 5 CSIRO Mk3 5 d MIROC3 2 ( d ) it constructed from the results of three General Circulation Models (GCMs)- ECham5, CSIRO-Mk3.5 and MIROC3.2 (medres) wit 2050 d 2090 Th fl d k di h d t l l di t d t i id bl A fl d i 2050 and 2090. The pre-monsoon flood peak discharge and water level are predicted to increase considerably . A flood in predicted hydrograph It is predicted that the flood severity will increase for most of the rivers in the Haor area predicted hydrograph. It is predicted that the flood severity will increase for most of the rivers in the Haor area. . C td R b th t Fl d Ch t i ti i th H Case study: Ruvubu catchment Flood Characteristics in the Haor area Case study: Ruvubu catchment Flood Characteristics in the Haor area Haor area of Bangladesh Haor area of Bangladesh Th d l fl dd H t di d i 1 D d 2 D h The deeply flooded Haor area was studied using 1-D and 2-D h environment Rivers were modelled with a 1 D model and Haors were m environment. Rivers were modelled with a 1-D model and Haors were m model was calibrated with respect to the water level gauge observation model was calibrated with respect to the water level gauge observation the 2 D model was calibrated using remote sensing images the 2-D model was calibrated using remote sensing images. Th lt h d th t th il t The results showed that there are mainly two t f i i th d l fl dd S types of rivers in the deeply flooded area. Some are slow response rivers with a flood response are slow response rivers with a flood response time of 10 to 20 days and others are quick time of 10 to 20 days and others are quick response rivers with a flood response time of 2 to response rivers with a flood response time of 2 to 5 days (Fig 2) 5 days (Fig. 2). () (a) An integrated flood index was developed with An integrated flood index was developed with hydrograph characteristics of the rising curve hydrograph characteristics of the rising curve gradient (K) flood magnitude ratio (M) and time to gradient (K), flood magnitude ratio (M) and time to peak (TP). The flood index indicates the relative peak (TP). The flood index indicates the relative ll it f fl di i diff t i (Fi overall severity of flooding in different rivers (Fig. overall severity of flooding in different rivers (Fig. 3 () 3 (a). (b) (b) Fig 3 (a) Flood inde Fig. 3 (a) Flood inde area for 2004 (b) De area for 2004 (b) De Fig 1 The study area Fig.1 The study area. The study shows The study shows pre-monsoon floo pre monsoon floo The study area is the North Eastern region of during the pre-m The study area is the North-Eastern region of during the pre m f (a) Bangladesh (Fig 1) There are three types of flooded Haor are (a) Bangladesh (Fig. 1). There are three types of flooded Haor are i dtd b Haors in that area: Foothill and near hill Haor inundated by a Haors in that area: Foothill and near hill Haor, inundated by a fl d l it f 1 Floodplain Haor and Deeply flooded Haor flood velocity of 1 Floodplain Haor and Deeply flooded Haor . Th td Twelve rivers and fifteen Haors of the deeply The study reve Twelve rivers and fifteen Haors of the deeply b h d flooded Haor area were considered in the breaches reduc flooded Haor area were considered in the fl dd H study During the dry season farmers cultivate flooded area. Ho study . During the dry season farmers cultivate flooded Haor are Boro rice in the Haor area. Pre-monsoon flooded Haor are (b) Boro rice in the Haor area. Pre monsoon fl d ft d i th H embankment he floods often damage crops in the Haor area. embankment he Fig.2: (a) Comparison of hydrograph in the Nawa River at floods often damage crops in the Haor area. H d fi h i d i th t identified Haors Fig.2: (a) Comparison of hydrograph in the Nawa River at US and DS during the 2004 flood (b) Comparison of water Haors are used as fisheries during the wet identified Haors US and DS during the 2004 flood (b) Comparison of water id Sonamoral Haor level in the Nawa River at US and DS during the 2004 flood period. Sonamoral Haor level in the Nawa River at US and DS during the 2004 flood 2 UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education Hydroinformatics Chair Group Westvest 7 P O Box 3015 2601 DA Delft The Neth UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Hydroinformatics Chair Group, Westvest 7, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Neth 1 Patuakhali Science and Technology University Department of Agricultural Engineering Dumki Patuakhali 8602 Bangladesh 1 Patuakhali Science and Technology University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Dumki, Patuakhali-8602, Bangladesh A i B ld h d th Pt ti l I t f aor Area in Bangladesh and the Potential Impact of aor Area in Bangladesh and the Potential Impact of aor Area in Bangladesh and the Potential Impact of Cli Ch Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change A Suman 1 and B Bhattacharya 2 A. Suman 1 and B. Bhattacharya 2 yahoo com and B Bhattacharya@unesco ihe org yahoo.com and B.Bhattacharya@unesco-ihe.org yahoo.com and B.Bhattacharya@unesco ihe.org Cli t Ch I t fl di i th H Climate Change Impacts on flooding in the Haor area Climate Change Impacts on flooding in the Haor area n Haors are used for agriculture and n Haors are used for agriculture and magnitude ratio (M) and time to peak Three GCMs CSIRO Mk3 5 ECHam5 and Table 1: Percentage of precipitation increase in magnitude ratio (M) and time to peak Three GCMs- CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHam5 and Table 1: Percentage of precipitation increase in indicates the relative overall severity MIROC3 2 (medres) and IPCC scenarios the B1 and A2 scenarios with different GCMs indicates the relative overall severity d 8) Cli t h i MIROC3.2 (medres), and IPCC scenarios the B1 and A2 scenarios with different GCMs. dex 8). Climate change scenarios are B1 and A2 were used to construct the dex 8). Climate change scenarios are th th B1 d A2 IPCC i f B1 and A2 were used to construct the GCM model % of precipitation increase th the B1 and A2 IPCC scenarios for future scenarios All of them predict an GCM model % of precipitation increase d i d l d f 2050 ith th future scenarios. All of them predict an B1 A2 ndex is developed for 2050 with the increase in precipitation (Fig 4(a)) The B1 A2 increase in precipitation (Fig. 4(a)). The pre-monsoon precipitation is predicted to 2050 2090 2050 2090 pre-monsoon precipitation is predicted to 2050 2090 2050 2090 CSIRO Mk3 5 3 66 84 16 4 increase considerably compared to the CSIRO-Mk3.5 5.3 6.6 8.4 16.4 increase considerably compared to the ECHam5 28 11 8 34 17 8 monsoon precipitation (Fig 4(b)) ECHam5 2.8 11.8 3.4 17.8 monsoon precipitation (Fig 4(b)). MIROC3.2(medres) 10.0 15.8 12.0 19.2 hd d i dl i th MIKE hydrodynamic models in the MIKE modelled with a 2 D model The 1 D modelled with a 2-D model. The 1-D ns The flood inundation extent from ns. The flood inundation extent from (a) (b) (a) Fig 4 (a) Rainfall pattern of 2010 and simulated rainfall pattern of 2050 with different GCM models Fig. 4. (a) Rainfall pattern of 2010 and simulated rainfall pattern of 2050 with different GCM models dh A2 i (b) P ii i h i h diff GCM dl dh A2 i f 20 0 and the A2 scenario (b) Precipitation changes with different GCM models and the A2 scenario for 2050 Th td l i i k di h d di h i th The study reveals an increase in peak discharge and average discharge in the The study reveals an increase in peak discharge and average discharge in the j i i th H f B ld h (Fi 5) Th fl d k major rivers in the Haor area of Bangladesh (Fig 5). The pre-monsoon flood peak di h d t l l i di t d t i id bl i i t th discharge and water level is predicted to increase considerably in comparison to the monsoon peak and water level Different GCM models expect an increase in the monsoon peak and water level. Different GCM models expect an increase in the pre monsoon peak water level by 0 4 m to 1 6 m in the Haor area in 2050 with the pre-monsoon peak water level by 0.4 m to 1.6 m in the Haor area in 2050 with the A2 scenario Fig 6 shows comparison of flood index of 2004 and 2050 A2 scenario. Fig. 6 shows comparison of flood index of 2004 and 2050. ex of different rivers at the deeply flooded ex of different rivers at the deeply flooded epth profile of pre-monsoon flooded Haors epth profile of pre monsoon flooded Haors Fig 5 Comparison of the flood hydrograph Fig 6 Comparison flood index of 2004 s the Haors are vulnerable to the Fig. 5 Comparison of the flood hydrograph Fig. 6 Comparison flood index of 2004 s the Haors are vulnerable to the for 2004 and a simulated hydrograph with and 2050 ods Seven Haors were inundated for 2004 and a simulated hydrograph with different GCM models for 2050 and A2 and 2050 ods. Seven Haors were inundated different GCM models for 2050 and A2 monsoon 2004 flood in the deeply scenario in the Surma River . monsoon 2004 flood in the deeply f scenario in the Surma River ea. Among them five Haors were ea. Among them five Haors were fl d d th f 1 5 t 3 3 d C l i flood depth of 1.5m to 3.3m and Conclusions flood depth of 1.5m to 3.3m and 1 2 t 1 3 / (Fi 3(b)) 1.2 to 1.3 m/sec (Fig. 3(b)). The study identified flood risk hot-spots in the Haor area of Bangladesh The study identified flood risk hot spots in the Haor area of Bangladesh. All GCMs predict an increase in pre-monsoon flood peak discharges l th t b k t ith t All GCMs predict an increase in pre-monsoon flood peak discharges. eals that embankments without d fl di ik i th d l ed flooding risk in the deeply t t t th hl d l Acknowledgement: owever, to protect the whole deeply Acknowledgement: ea it is recommended to raise the The research was done in collaboration with 1) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM Bangladesh) 2) Center for ea it is recommended to raise the The research was done in collaboration with 1) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM, Bangladesh), 2) Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS Bangladesh) 3) Institute of Water and Flood Management eight by 1 0 m around some Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS, Bangladesh) 3) Institute of Water and Flood Management, eight by 1.0 m around some Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology ( Bangladesh). s (Shanir Haor Halir Haor W k ld th t f th j t M h Fl dH s (Shanir Haor, Halir Haor, We acknowledge the support of the project MorphoFloodHaor and Pagnar Haor) and Pagnar Haor). www unesco-ihe org/hi herlands www.unesco-ihe.org/hi herlands

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Page 1: Poster egu 2012

Fld

Ch

ti

tift

hH

Floo

dC

hara

cter

istic

sof

the

Ha

Floo

dC

hara

cter

istic

sof

the

Ha

Floo

d C

hara

cter

istic

s of

the

Ha

sum

anfs

@y

sum

anfs

@y

sum

an_f

s@y

Abs

trac

tA

bstr

act

Abs

trac

tH

aors

are

larg

esa

ucer

-sha

ped

flood

plai

nde

pres

sion

slo

cate

din

the

Nor

th-E

astr

egio

nof

Ban

glad

esh

Dur

ing

the

dry

seas

onH

aors

are

larg

esa

ucer

shap

edflo

odpl

ain

depr

essi

ons

loca

ted

inth

eN

orth

Eas

treg

ion

ofB

angl

ades

h.D

urin

gth

edr

yse

ason

durin

gth

era

iny

seas

onth

eyar

eus

edas

fishe

ries

The

hydr

ogra

phch

arac

teris

tics

such

asth

eris

ing

curv

egr

adie

nt(K

)flo

odm

durin

gth

era

iny

seas

onth

eyar

eus

edas

fishe

ries.

The

hydr

ogra

phch

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teris

tics

such

asth

eris

ing

curv

egr

adie

nt(K

),flo

odm

(TP

)are

asse

ssed

ford

iffer

entr

iver

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sing

thes

ech

arac

teris

tics

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tegr

ated

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xis

deve

lope

d.Th

eflo

odin

dex

(TP

)are

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ssed

ford

iffer

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iver

flood

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sing

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tegr

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ffl

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fld

id

ith

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)d

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flood

ing.

The

flood

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xis

the

high

esti

nth

eJa

duka

Riv

er(fl

ood

inde

x21

)and

the

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omes

war

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ood

ind

offlo

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g.Th

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isth

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the

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(floo

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td

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2050

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ract

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resp

onse

pp

time

of10

to20

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and

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equ

ick

time

of10

to20

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and

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sw

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of2

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spon

seriv

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with

aflo

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2to

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ig2)

5da

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).(

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with

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ofth

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acte

ristic

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the

risin

gcu

rve

grad

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(K)

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)and

time

togr

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nt(K

),flo

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tude

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(M)a

ndtim

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(TP

).Th

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cate

sth

ere

lativ

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ak(T

P).

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the

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tive

llit

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(Fi

over

alls

ever

ityof

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eral

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()

(b)

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(a)

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1)Th

ere

are

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angl

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ig.1

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Hao

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dt

db

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area

:Foo

thill

and

near

hill

Hao

rin

unda

ted

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Hao

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that

area

:Foo

thill

and

near

hill

Hao

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ted

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hydr

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paris

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f hyd

rogr

aph

in th

e N

awa

Riv

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ring

the

2004

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rison

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ater

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ood

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rison

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ater

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id

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