POST-CARBON CITIES OF TOMORROW

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development, and Demonstration under

grant agreement no 613286.

About the POCACITO project and process

Stakeholder workshop methodology

Post-carbon visions

Backcasting scenarios

Conclusions

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

POCACITO

: to facilitate the transition of EU cities to a sustainable or “post-carbon” economic and societal model in a global context

: assess the long-term trends and tensions in EU cities that impact urban development and explore innovative approaches for achieving sustainable post-carbon cities

: roadmap for moving to a no or low-carbon economy by 2050, supporting the EU Innovation Union flagship initiative

POst-CArbon CIties of TOmorrow

WHAT IS A POST-CARBON CITY?

Rupture in the carbon-dependent urban

system

No or low-carbon and environmentally, socially

and economically sustainable

Emphasis on the transformation process,

shifting paradigms

Responding to the multiple challenges of

climate change, ecosystem degradation,

social equity and economic pressures

Adaptive capacity empowers cities to use the threat of climate

change as an opportunity to reduce

vulnerability

ROLE OF FORESIGHT EXERCISES

“systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering, and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at

enabling present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions” (EFP 2001)

foresight activities intend to create a platform to

think about, debate, and shape the future with stakeholders,

not to predict the future

use scenarios as a means for examining the factors and trends

that form future developments

“ What if ” or “how to get there” futures

Not forecasts or predictions

No “right” or “wrong” solutions

Informed reflections about possible

SCENARIOS

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) From the climate research/integrated modelling community: • Socioeconomic reference for future climate projections and research • Basic assumptions:

• SSPs occur without any new climate mitigation or adaptation policy interventions

• basic assumptions and drivers are not influenced by future climate change

3-step methodology

STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOPS

Initial Assessment

• presenting the results of initial assessment

• stakeholders decide on key challenges

• key challenges can then be presented in the visioning WS

Visioning

• presenting the key challenges

• presenting a European context scenario

• stakeholders develop a local post-carbon vision for 2050

Backcasting

• presenting the local post-carbon vision as end-point

• stakeholders identify obstacles and opportunities

• stakeholders define milestones

• stakeholders agree on actions

• optional: test of robustness of recommendations under variation of context scenario

CASE STUDY CITIES

Selected socio-economic and environmental indicators

CHARACERIZATION OF CITIES

City Population Area (km2) Density

(pop/ km2)

GDP per capita (€)

Carbon Intensity (CO2/million €)

Eco modal share (%)

Urban Waste Recovery (%)

Barcelona 1,620,000 102 15,898 28,300 216 70 36

Istanbul 13,854,720 5,343 25,931 20,100 268 54 3

Lisbon 547,733 100 548 134 51 20

Litoměřice 24,136 18 1,341 11,800 75

Malmö 313,000 157 1,995 45,400 127 60 36

Milan 1,324,169 182 7,276 45,600 170 63 39

Rostock 203,673 181 1,125 29,000 133 65 54

Turin 902,137 130 6,940 28,900 190 55 42

Zagreb 792,875 641 1,237 27,400

CHARACTERIZATION OF STAKEHOLDERS

% stakeholders at 1st Workshop (inside) and 2nd Workshop (outside)

Urban admin

Public agency

NGO

Private business

Research

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

WS1

WS2

Barcelona Milan Malmo Litoměřice Turin Lisbon Rostock Istanbul Zagreb

CHARACTERIZATION OF STAKEHOLDERS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

WS1 WS2 WS1 WS2 WS1 WS2 WS1 WS2

Rostock Barcelona Istanbul Turin

# st

akeh

old

ers

invited

attended

Percentage (left) and number (right) of cities addressing each sector

POST-CARBON VISIONS: SECTORS

0

3

6

9

Transport &mobility

Energy

Land use &infrastructure

Social issues

Economy

Biodiversity &conservation

Technology &innovation

Education

Tourism

Governance

Foodproduction

Consumption &waste

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Tran

spo

rt &

mo

bili

ty

Eco

no

my

Lan

d u

se &

infr

astr

uct

ure

Ener

gy

Soci

al is

sues

Tech

no

logy

& in

no

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on

Go

vern

ance

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n &

was

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Foo

d p

rod

uct

ion

Tou

rism

Edu

cati

on

Bio

div

ersi

ty &

co

nse

rvat

ion

VISIONS BY CITY

City

Tran

spo

rt &

m

ob

ility

Ener

gy

Lan

d u

se &

in

fras

tru

ctu

re

Soci

al is

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Eco

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Bio

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mp

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& w

aste

Barcelona • • • • • • • • • Istanbul • • • • • • • • • Litomerice • • • • • • • • • • • Lisbon • • • • • • • • • Malmo • • • • • • • • Milan • • • • • • • • • • Rostock • • • • • • • • Turin • • • • •

Zagreb • • • • • • • • •

0

4

8

12Barcelona

Istanbul

Litomerice

Lisbon

MalmoMilan

Rostock

Turin

Zagreb

Define a normative “desired” end point (the vision from the previous visioning workshop)

Consider potential obstacles and opportunities in reaching the end point

Identify milestones or interim projects that would signify progress in reaching the end point

Define actions that must be taken to get to the end point

Validate the robustness of actions in the case of other background scenarios playing out

BACKCASTING SCENARIOS

MILESTONES

• stakeholders struggled with detailing actions and goals over long time frames

Concentrated in the period up to 2020; only about 30% refer to the post-2030 period

Distribution of actions by sectors (left) and cities (right)

ACTIONS

Barcelona 5%

Istanbul 22%

Lisbon 8%

Litoměřice 17%

Malmo 11%

Milan 14%

Rostock 10%

Turin 4% Zagreb

9% Transport &

mobility 21%

Energy 26%

Economy 7%

Land use 10%

Food production

3%

Biodiversity & conservation

1%

Technology & innovation

3%

Education 5%

Tourism 3%

Governance 12%

Social issues 5%

Consumption 4%

ACTIONS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Consumption

Social issues

Governance

Tourism

Education

Technology & innovation

Biodiversity & conservation

Food production

Land use

Economy

Energy

Transport & mobility

EXAMPLES OF ACTIONS BY SECTOR & TYPE

05

101520253035

Ru

les

Pla

ns

Emis

sio

nR

edu

ctio

n

Ener

gyEf

fici

ency

Car

bo

n F

ree

Tran

spo

rt

Transport

EXAMPLES OF ACTIONS BY SECTOR & TYPE

0

10

20

30

40

Gen

erat

ion

Tran

spo

rt

Ind

ust

ry

Bu

ildin

g

Pu

blic

use

Pla

ns/

per

form

ance

Ince

nti

ves

Energy

EXAMPLES OF ACTIONS BY SECTOR & TYPE

0

5

10

15

20

Pla

nn

ing

Re-

use

Bu

ildin

g

Qu

alit

y/ef

fici

ency

Land

EXAMPLES OF ACTIONS BY SECTOR & TYPE

0

2

4

6

Self

su

ffic

ien

cy

Ener

gyC

on

sum

pti

on

Edu

cati

on

Food Production

• Not surprisingly, cities aim at measures which are concentrated in five main areas:

• Transport and mobility,

• Economic development

• Land and infrastructure

• Energy production and efficiency

• Social justice

This last one was slightly less targeted

CONCLUSIONS

Work ahead (2015/2016):

Using the initial indicators from each city and local storylines built on the SSPs and global projections, results from the local visions will be assessed and, as far as possible, quantified.

Economic quantification follows an input-output approach with geographical downscaling, under the lead of CUNI

OUTLOOK

PARTNERS

Margaretha Breil

Andrea Bigano

Cristina Cattaneo

Katie Johnson

pocacito@feem.it

THE POCACITO TEAM AT FEEM

mailto:pocacito@feem.it