Population Impact Analysis : Consequences of Population Policy on Demographic

Variables in Yogyakarta Special Region

Dr. Sukamdi, MScFaculty of Geografi,

Universitas Gadjah Mada

The 4th International Geography SeminarSeptember 30, 2020

• Discussion on population policy impact analysis mostly have been done at national level and provincial level.

• In fact, it is important to discuss it at lower district level due to the decentralization issues in which the district has responsibility to develop strategic plan including on population issues.

• The achievement of the demographic bonus in Yogyakarta is ahead of the other provinces.

• An interesting question is whether this achievement has also occurred in the district / city? What implications arose as a result of this achievement?

INTRODUCTION : why this research important

Method

• This research is using quantitative approach especially secondary data analysis

• Data is gathered from various sources such as Statistics Indonesia and department of population and civil registration

• Analysis data using descriptive statistics

Results and Discussion

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Dependency Ratio by District and City, 2015-2025

Kulon Progo Bantul Gunungkidul Sleman Yogyakarta DIY

Three patterns :1. Bantul Regency coincides with the province2. Gunungkidul and Kulonprogo districts have

slower achievements compared to the provincial average

3. Sleman Regency and Yogyakarta City have more advanced achievements compared to provinces

Note: Kulonprogo Regency will experience a different pattern because the new airport will cause the flow of in-migration (productive age), thus causing the dependency ratio to decrease

• Kulonprogo : High dependency ratio, high fertility, low mortality, and positive net migration

• Bantul : low dependency ratio, high fertility, low mortality, and positive net migration

• Gunungkidul : high dependency ratio, high fertility and mortality, negative net migration

• Sleman : Low dependency ratio, low fertility and mortality, and positive net migration

• Yogyakarta City: Low dependency ratio, low fertility, high mortality and negative net migration

Kulon Progo Bantul Gunungkidul Sleman Yogyakarta City

DR : 2015-2025 53-55Mig : Positif (+)Mor : 2016 10F : 2010 307

DR : 2015-2025 44-46Mig : Positif (+)Mor : 2016 8F : 2010 292

DR : 2015-2025 50-53Mig : Negatif (-)Mor : 2016 8F : 2010 282

DR : 2015-2025 40-42Mig : Positif (+)Mor : 2016 3F : 2010 274

DR : 2015-2025 34-36Mig : Negatif (-)Mor : 2016 8F : 2010 225

DR DR DR DRMig Mig MigMig MigDR

F F F F FM MM MM

Conclusion

• Adopting almost similar population policy, the effects on demographic structure varies among districts/city.

• The demographic bonus stage in two districts, Gunungkidul and Kulonprogo, is behind the provincial average

• Two areas that are more advanced in terms of achieving the demographic bonus are Sleman Regency and Yogyakarta City

• Population aging is a common issue that appears in all districts / cities• Policy implications: (1) development of elderly care policies in all

regions and (2) different policies in each region to respond to the achievement of the demographic bonus

ReferencesAdioetomo, Sri Moertiningsih dan Elda Luciana Pardede. 2018. “Pembangunan Manusia:

Pendekatan Daur Hidup Dalam Konteks bonus Demografi” dalam Sri MoertiningsihAdioetomo dan Elda Luciana Pardede (eds). Memetik Bonus Demografi, MembangunManusia Sejak Dini. Depok : Rajawali Pers. Hal : 3-19

Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA. 2018. Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia, 2015-2045. Jakarta : Bappenas, BPS, UNFPA

Bloom, D.E., D. Canning, J. Sevilla, 2003. The Demographic Dividend, A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, California: RAND

BPS DIY. 2018. Proyeksi Penduduk Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta 2015-2025. Yogyakarta : BPS

Mason, Andrew, 2005. “Demographic transitions and demographic dividends in developed and developing countries.” Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, 31 August – 2 September 2005. Pp. 81-101. New York: United Nations

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