POPULATIONGROWTHINETHIOPIA:CAUSES,IMPACTSANDWIDERAREASOFINFLUENCE

LouiseCarverPopula;onandSustainabilityNetwork

Outlineforthisevening:

1.  Popula1onissuesinEthiopia;

2.  Popula1onpolicyinhistoricalcontext

3.  Howcanweapproachtheissuetoday?

Popula;oninEthiopia:

•  Rateofgrowth:2.5%/year

•  UNprojec1ons•  Veryyoungagestructure

•  Urbaniza1onrateisdoublena1onalgrowthrates

Birthandcontracep;onrates:

•  Fer1lityis5.1childrenperwoman•  Under10%ofwomenusemoderncontracep1on

•  Unmetneedforcontracep1onisdefinedas:

“Awomanwhowouldliketodelayorpreventhernextpregnancyandisnotusingmoderncontracep;on”

Overathirdofmarriedwomenhavean“unmetneed”forcontracep1oninEthiopia

Impactsofpopula;ongrowthonEthiopiandevelopmentindicators:

•  Maternalhealth(oneinfivedeathsforwomenisduetopregnancyrelatedcauses)

•  Educa1on(primaryschoolenrolmentisloweramongstwomenwithlargefamilies)

•  Hinderseconomicgrowth

•  Environmentaldegrada1on

Impactsofhighpopula;ongrowthondevelopmentefforts:

•  HinderAXainmentoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGS)1.  Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger

2.  Achieveuniversalprimaryeduca1on3.  Promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen

4.  Reducechildmortality

5.  Improvematernalhealth

6.  CombatHIV/AIDS,malariaandotherdiseases

7.  Ensureenvironmentalsustainability8.  Developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment

“TheMDGsaredifficult or impossible to achievewith thecurrentlevelsofpopula;ongrowthintheleastdevelopedcountriesorregions”APPGReport,ReturnofthePopula;onGrowthFactor

1.  Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger:

Reduc1onofpercentofpopula1onlivinginpovertynotrepresentedinnumberslivinginpoverty:

Source:Popula1onandSustainabilityNetworkfor2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009

2.Achieveuniversalprimaryeduca1on:

Primaryschoolcomple1on

rates2006‐2007

PrimarySchoolComple1onRate

Source:WorldBankDatain2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009

Totalfer1lityrates2006

Source:WorldBankDatain2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009

Popula;onandreproduc;vehealthpoliciesinEthiopia:

•  Ratesoffer1litydecline– Datashowsthatfer1lityhasdeclinedfrom6.4birthsperwomanin1995to5.4birthsperwomanin2005

•  Governmentcommitmenttofamilyplanningprograms?– S1llverylow

•  Abor1onlaw(2005)oneofthemostprogressiveinAfrica

Popula;onandEnvironment:Malthusianworriesinthe21stCentury

•  Debatearoundtherela1onshipbecauseitisdifficulttoachieveconsensusinageneralizedway…

•  Rela1onshipisbeXerobservedonacasebycasebasis,illustratedinEthiopia

Popula1onGrowthandEnvironmentalconcerns‐Ethiopia

Ethiopia’senvironmentalmakeup: Desertintheeast Rainforestinthewest Highal1tudevegeta1onin

thecentral,southeasternandnorthernhighlands

 Humandependencyonenvironmentishigh

 Popula1ongrowthof2.7%/yearhasacceleratedlanddegrada1on

“Therearenojokesinwifeandland”(proverbusedbyfarmersinnorthernEthiopia..)

Landdegrada1oniscausedbythefollowing:– Popula1ongrowth– Unsustainablelanduse– Ambiguouslandownershippolicies…

Increasingfamilysize(decreasedlandholdings)+unsustainableprac1ces=produc1vity

Popula1onandtheEthiopianenvironment…

•  Examplesofenvironmentalconcerns–  Deser1fica1on–  Watershortages

–  Landdegrada1on–  Soilerosion

•  Deforesta1on– Es1matedtobeat150,000‐200,000hectaresannuallywhichifcon1nuesatthisratecoulddenudecountryinasliXleas20years

Distribu1onofpopula1ons•  Landpercapitaseemsamplebut

whatisimportantisdensity:

•  Popula1onsorganizethemselvesaccordingtoenvironmentalcondi1ons

•  Mostoflowlandsarenotsuitableforhabita1onduetomalariaandwatershortages

•  Majorityofpopula1on(80%)and70%oflivestockliveinecologicallyfragilehighlands

•  Suchhighlandscons1tuteonly45%ofavailablelandarea

FoodInsecurity

1.Inefficientfarming

techniquesrequirelargeareasofland

2.Lowuseofsoilconserva;ontechniques

3.Increasingfamilysizeandsoilerosion

meanslessarableland

4.Farmershavetosharesamepieceoflandexer;ngevenmorepressure

Theeffectsoflandlessness..

•  Urbaniza1on•  Deforesta1on•  Expansiontomarginalareas

Mul1‐sectorapproach:pioneeredinEthiopia

•  Popula;on‐Health‐EnvironmentFrameworkexamplesfromEthiopia

•  Wheredothesethreemeet?:

–  Popula;on‐Environment(popula1onpressure,migra1on,overexploita1onofland)

–  Environment‐Health(foodandwatersecurity,diseasesandpests)

–  Health‐Popula;on(sexualandreproduc1vehealththroughfamilyplanning,infantandmaternalhealth)

Beforetreeswerere‐plantedinthevillagewherethesewomenlivetheywerewalkingupto25kmadaytocollectwood.

WichiProvenceineasternEthiopia,casestudy:

Projecthasthreecentralac1vi1es:Educatelocalinhabitantsonsustainablelanduseprac;ces

Rehabilitateareasthroughreforesta;onprograms

Introducefamilyplanningservices

GuidingPrinciple:

Individualscannotexerciseadequatestewardshipovernaturalresourcesunlesstheirbasicneedsforhealth,nutri;onandeconomicwell‐beingareaddressed.

Preliminaryresultsshowsuccess:

Contracep;veprevalencethatwasini;allyverylownowstandsataround30%use.Whichisthree;mesthena;onalaverage.

ClimateChange‐poorcountrieswillbehitearliestandhardest:

•  Mostvulnerabletoimpacts

•  Havelesscapacitytoadapt

•  Rapidpopula1ongrowthunderscoresboth

ClimateChangeaddsanextradimensiontopop‐environmentmodel

•  Rapidpopula1ongrowthcanmakeadapta1ontothechangesandimpactsmuchharder

Ethiopia’sNa1onalAdapta1onProgramofAc1on(NAPA)

•  SubmiXedtotheUNFCCCbyEthiopianGovernmentin2007

•  Acknowledgesthatpopula1onpressureisoneofkeycausesofclimatechangevulnerabilityasitimpactson:

Lossofnaturalhabitat

SoilDegrada;on/Overfarming

Deser;fica;on

Deforesta;on

Doespopula;ongrowthcauseclimatechange?Skewedglobalratesofconsump;onshowotherwise:

• Forevery1,000peopleinEthiopia,thereareonlytwomotorizedvehicles(comparedto787motorizedvehiclesper1,000Americans)(Popula1onAc1onInterna1onal)

• TheaverageAmericanemitsabouttwohundred1mesmorecarbondioxidethantheaverageEthiopian.”

• Itwillhoweverbeanimportantfactorinthefutureasdevelopingeconomiesindustrialise.

GlobalPopula1onGrowthToday:Globalpopula1ongrowthshownbetweenLessDevelopedand

moreDevelopedregions1750–2150.

Source:UnitedNa1onsWorldPopula1onProspects,The1998RevisioninUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2007

Driversofpopula1onincrease

• Decreasedmortality

• Highfer1lity(lagbehindmortality)

• Momentumfrompreviousgenera1ons

Demographicimpactsofhighpopula1ongrowth:

•  Urbanisa1on•  Migra1on

•  Youngagestructures

ThemissingMillenniumDevelopmentGoal?

•  Introduc1onoftheaddi1onalMDGin2006:

“Toprovideuniversalaccesstoreproduc;vehealthby2015andreducetheunmetneedforfamilyplanning”

Humannumbersvs.humanrights•  Popula1onprogramsincontext– Historyoffamilyplanning(popula1oncontrolpolicy)

•  Interna1onalConferenceonPopula1onandDevelopment(ICPD),Cairo1994

•  Newparadigmbuiltaroundhumanrights;

Howcanweapproachpopula;onmaferstoday?

•  Improvingeconomicandeduca1onalopportuni1esforwomenandgirlsandreducinginfantmortalityrates.

•  Providinguniversalaccesstohighquality,voluntaryfamilyplanningservices– Addressingtoday’s“unmetneed”forcontracep1veservices(200millionwomenworldwide)

ThedealforFamilyPlanning..

Globallevelsofinvestmentatanall1melow,declinedby30%inrealtermssincethemid1990s.

Reasonsfordisinvestmentinfamilyplanning:

•  Assump1onsaboutfer1litydecline

•  Donorfa1gueandalterna1veneedsforthesamemoney(HIV/AIDS)

•  Resistancefromopposedgroups

Widerbenefitsoffamilyplanningaspartofsexualandreproduc;vehealthservices:

•  Maternalandinfanthealth–  76millionunintendedpregnanciesinthedevelopingworldin2003resultedin184,000pregnancyrelateddeathsand1.8millioninfantdeaths.

•  Expandedopportuni1esforwomen’seduca1on,employmentandsocialpar1cipa1on

•  Loweringpopula1onpressure

WIN/WINopportunityforfamilyplanning•  Rela1velyeasytoimplement

•  Rela1velyinexpensive(uniqueinterven1oninthebreadthofbenefitsitbrings)

•  Demandforitalreadyexistsandisgrowing

•  Canbolstercapacitytocopewithenvironmentalchangesathouseholdandna1onallevelthrougheasingpopula1onpressure

Conclusion

•  Reachingpopula1onstabiliza1ononitsownwouldnotbethesilverbulletfordevelopmentchallenges,environmentalsustainabilityorclimatechange…

BUT

•  Itwouldmakeac1onmuchmorefeasible.

Whatthefutureholds..

•  Buildonlessonslearned,theparadigmsuppor1ngsexualandreproduc1vehealthrightsiss1llper1nenttodayandforthefuture

•  EthiopiaandotherLeastDevelopedCountriesneedboldandprogressivepoliciesdevelopedwithhumanrightsasacentralpillar

•  Necessarypoli1calwill,andinterna1onalsupporttoimplementpoliciesthathavelargelybeenignored

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