population: global patterns and trends introduction to global studies xids 2301
TRANSCRIPT
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Population:Global Patterns and Trends
Introduction to Global StudiesXIDS 2301
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• Farmers protest• Food riots• http://www.nytimes.com/
2008/04/18/world/americas/18food.html
The light blue line shows that between 2005 and 2007, food prices have increased by more than 50%.
Thus, a basket of food that cost $20 in 2005 cost more than $30 in 2007.
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How does “population” account for the rising demand
for food in the “developing world”?
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World Population Clock
Natural Increase per World
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries (less China)
Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587
Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004
Minute 154 2 151 137
2005
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
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World Population Growth (in billions)
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
1. Size2. Growth3. Distribution4. Composition
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
1. Size
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A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through History (in billions)
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Ninth
Eighth
Seventh
Sixth
Fifth
Fourth
Third
Second
First Billion
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History(1800)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth
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World Population Growth (in billions)
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
2. Growth
Principal components of population growth:
--Natural Increase
--Net Migration
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Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Birth rate Death rate
Natural Increase
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
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Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
2. Growth
Principal components of population growth:
--Natural Increase BR, DR; also TFR
--Net Migration (immigration, emigration)
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© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Every Country Has a Different Pattern of Fertility Decline.
Sources: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Population Reference Bureau; and Korea National Statistics Office.
Fertility Patterns for Selected Countries: 1950-2010
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Total Fertility Rates (2000-2005)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of Population Living on <$2 per Day
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
Niger
Jordan
Mongolia
Association Between Fertility and Poverty
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of Girls Enrolled in Secondary School
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
Palestinian Territory
Uruguay
Morocco
Association Between Fertility and Education
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.
Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004
Turkey
DjiboutiPhilippines
Association Between Fertility and Employment
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
3. Distribution
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Map of World Population ~2000
Cartogram adjusts area by some value, such as size of population
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Population Growth
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World Population Growth (in billions)
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Total Fertility Rates (2000-2005)
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Total Fertility Rates (1970-1975)
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Childhood Mortality Among the Poor
66
105
114
121
128
149
183
189
206
257
Philippines 2003
Bolivia 2003
Lesotho 2004
Bangladesh 2004
Ghana 2003
Kenya 2003
Malawi 2004
Cameroon 2004
Burkina Faso 2003
Nigeria 2003
Poorest Economic QuintileDeaths under age 5 per 1,000 births
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
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Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day2002
Percent
50
7875
41
23 20
World South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
East Asia and thePacific
Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.
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Population: Global Patterns and Trends
4. Composition
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© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
By 2050, One in Every Five Americans Will Be Age 65 or Older.
Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age Groups: 1970-2050
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