Population Estimates, Projections and Evaluation for Harris County 2011-2030Alexis R. Santos Lozada, M.A.

Department of DemographyCollege of Public PolicyApplied Demography Conference (January 2014)

Introduction

This presentation includes population estimates for Harris County for year 2011 and population projections until 2030.

It is expected that after it, the audience will have a keen idea of different methods of estimations and the demographic outlook of Harris County and the demographic transformations this county will face as time passes.

Data Data comes from different sources. Population

counts comes from U.S. Census, housing and building permits come from the Texas Data Center. Voters registration come from Texas Secretary of State and Vehicle registration comes from the Department of Motor Vehicles.

For projections data come from U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Department of Health and Human Services, Texas State Data Center and Texas Department of State.

Methods Estimates (County Level)

Extrapolative (Arithmetic, Geometric, Exponential) Complex Estimations (Ratio Correlation and Housing Unit) Average of Methods

Evaluation Mean Percent Error (MPE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

and Mean Percent Absolute Difference (MPAD).

Estimates (Place Level) and Evaluation Projections

Cohort Component Method Evaluation

Mean Percent Error (MPE)

Estimates

Extrapolative MethodsComplex Methods

Extrapolative

Arithmetic

Geometric

Exponential

Average Method

Extrapolative

4,150,000

4,155,000

4,160,000

4,165,000

4,170,000

4,175,000

4,180,000

4,185,000

Arithmetic AdjustedArithmetic

Geometric AdjustedGeometric

Exponential AdjustedExponential

Average AdjustedAverage

Population2011

Method

Es

tim

ate

d P

op

ula

tio

n

Complex Estimation

Housing Unit Method

Ratio Correlation Method

Average Method

Complex Estimation

Evaluation for Texas County Estimates

Mean Percent Error (MPE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Mean Percent Absolute Difference (MPAD) for 2011 Estimates Produced by Ratio Correlation Method, Housing Unit Method.

 Method Estimate 2011 MPE MAPE MPAD

Extrapolative Methods

Arithmetic Method 4,161,647 -0.244 0.721 0.335

Geometric Method 4,168,958 -0.523 0.852 0.528

Exponential Method 4,168,958 -0.523 0.852 0.528

Average Method 4,166,521 -0.557 0.844 0.504

Adjusted Extrapolative Methods

Arithmetic Method 4,177,878 -0.631 0.836 0.501

Geometric Method 4,173,694 -0.410 0.813 0.505

Exponential Method 4,173,694 -0.410 0.813 0.505

Average Method 4,175,086 -0.353 0.777 0.444

Complex Estimation Methods

Ratio-Correlation Method 4,067,703 -2.086 2.303 2.557

Housing Unit Method 4,137,386 -0.484 0.775 0.887

Average Method 4,155,683 -0.007 0.820 0.549

Adjusted Complex Estimation Method

Ratio-Correlation Method 4,173,980 0.472 1.407 0.443

Housing Unit Method 4,169,997 0.472 1.409 0.469

Average Method 4,171,988 0.386 0.916 0.383

Place Level Data

Housing Unit Method

Places Estimates with Place level data were

calculated with the estimate and the official 2011 estimate available in the Texas Data Center having an overall difference of 45,108 which is 1.12% of the total population of Harris County.

Evaluation of these estimates provide supporting evidence to adjusting to for the total population of the county. Reducing the percent error by 85%.

Place level estimates and evaluations

Place Name Housing Unit Estimate 2011 Adjusted Housing Unit Estimate 2011 Difference Population 2011

Harris County 3,980,301 4,025,409 45,108 4,025,409

Evaluation of Place Level Estimates Harris County in 2011

Housing Unit Estimate Adjusted Housing Unit Estimate

MPE -1.323 -0.205

Projections 2000-2030

Cohort Component Method

Assumptions

Estimation of Baseline Fertility, Mortality, and Migration Rates

Fertility – using three year average 1999-2001 Births (Age, Race Specific Fertility Rate)

Mortality – using 2000 Life Tables (Sex, Age Group, and Race/Ethnic Group). The three year average death was considered for each specific group (1999-2001).

Migration – Estimated with the Residual Method or Vital Statistics Method for the 1990 to 2000 decade.

Projection Scenarios

Calculation of projections are done assuming Complete Net Migration (1 scenario), Half Net Migration (.5 scenario) and Zero Net Migration (0 scenario).

Total PopulationPopulation Projections 2005-2030

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

1 Migration Scenario.5 Migration ScenarioZero Migration

Transformations of Harris County based on these projections

Age Structure

Race/Ethnic Composition

Age Structure

1 Migration

.5 Migration

0 Migration

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2005

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2010

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2015

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2020

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2025

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2030

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2005

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2010

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2015

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2020

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2025

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2030

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2005

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2010

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2015

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2020

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2025

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Population Pyramid - Harris County 2030

4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

% Male % Female

Race/Ethnic Composition

1 Migration Scenario

.5 Migration Scenario

0 Migration Scenario

1 Migration Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Other

Hispanic

Black

White

Other 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09

Hispanic 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.48 0.51

Black 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

White 0.39 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

.5 Migration Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year

Per

cen

tag

e Other

Hispanic

Black

White

Other 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08

Hispanic 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.42 0.44 0.46

Black 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

White 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.27

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Zero Migration Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year

Per

cen

tag

e Other

Hispanic

Black

White

Other 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Hispanic 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40

Black 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20

White 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.37 0.35 0.34

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Evaluation of Projections (2010)

Evaluation of Projections of 2010 with Census 2010

Scenario Projection Census 2010 MPE

1 Migration Scenario 3,935,130 4,092,459 -3.84

.5 Migration Scenario 3,847,607 4,092,459 -5.98

Zero Migration Scenario 3,782,759 4,092,459 -7.57

Future perspectives

The population projections presented in this paper indicate that Harris County will experience transformations in both age structure and race/ethnicity.

Race/ethnic group structure seems to shift from Non-Hispanic Whites being a majority to Hispanic becoming majorities, this process seems to be slower less for the zero migration scenario.

Future perspectives

Harris County can expect population to continue increasing should the baseline rates stay the same.

Thank you for your attention

Questions? or Comments?

are highly appreciated!