1

Population Estimates Tom Sawyer Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville Kentucky State Data Center Affiliate Meeting Urban Studies Institute University of Louisville August 7, 2014

2

Sources of Demographic Data

1. Decennial Census

2. Census Bureau Population Estimates

3. Population Projections

3

Decennial Census • Mandated by Article 1, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution • Based on actual counts of persons • Used to determine the number of members in the House of Representatives from each state • Used by states for redistricting • Provides the base population for the annual population estimates series

4

Population Estimates

• A calculated number of people living in an area at a specific point in time

• Derived using mathematical models that account for the change in births, deaths, and net migration since the most recent census

• Estimates reflect recent measurable trends

• Used as population controls for surveys (CPS, ACS, SAIPE, etc)

• Used by state and local government agencies and non-profits as denominators in rate calculations, administration of programs and allocation of funds

5

Population Projections • Projections are estimates of the population for future dates • Instead of using symptomatic indicators of actual population change, projections methodologies use a set of assumptions about future births, deaths, and net migration • Used by government, businesses, and non-profits for planning purposes and demand forecasts

6

Population Detail Latest Data Available Date of Next Release

National and State population and demographic components of population change 7/1/2013 12/2014 (7/1/2014 data)

Puerto Rico Commonwealth population and demographic components of population

change

7/1/2013 12/2014 (7/1/2014 data)

State and Puerto Rico Commonwealth population 18 and over 7/1/2013 1/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

County population and demographic components of population change 7/1/2013 3/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

Puerto Rico municipio population and demographic components of population change 7/1/2013 3/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

Metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area population and demographic components of

population change

7/1/2013 3/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population 7/1/2013 5/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

National, State, and County housing units 7/1/2013 5/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

National population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin 7/1/2013 6/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

State population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin 7/1/2013 6/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

Puerto Rico Commonwealth population by age and sex 7/1/2013 6/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

County population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin 7/1/2013 6/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

Puerto Rico municipio population by age and sex 7/1/2013 6/2015 (7/1/2014 data)

www.census.gov/popest/schedule.html

7

www.ksdc.louisville.edu

8

www.ksdc.louisville.edu

9

www.ksdc.louisville.edu

10

www.census.gov/2010census/

11

www.census.gov/popest/

12

Kentucky’s 2013 Population Estimate

4,395,295

An increase of 55,928 persons

1.3 percent growth since the 2010 Census

Ranks Kentucky as the 26th most populous state

13

Largest and Smallest Counties in the state 2013 Population Estimate

Counties with populations >100,000 1. Jefferson 756,832

2. Fayette 308,428

3. Kenton 163,145

4. Boone 124,442

5. Warren 118,370

6. Hardin 108,191

Counties with populations < 5,000 1. Robertson 2,235

2. Owsley 4,654

3. Hickman 4,745

14

Change in Total Population 2010-2013

Counties with largest increases 1. Jefferson 15,736

2. Fayette 12,625

3. Boone 5,631

4. Warren 4,578

5. Kenton 3,425

Counties with largest decreases 1. Pike -1,644

2. Letcher -900

3. Bell -806

4. Harlan -779

5. Floyd -723

6. Perry -702

15

Counties with Largest and Smallest Rates of Change 2010-2013

Counties with largest % increases 1. Scott 5.9

2. Shelby 5.1

3. Boone 4.7

4. Fayette 4.3

5. Warren 4.0

Counties with largest % decreases 1. Lee -7.9

2. Fulton -6.3

3. Morgan -3.9

4. Letcher -3.7

5. Hickman -3.2

16

17

18

19

20

58.2 19.2

22.6

Population Distribution by CBSA 2013 Estimate

Metropolitan

Micropolitan

Non-CBSA

21

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Population Distribution by ADDs 2013 Estimate

22

Population Growth 2010-2013

-0.9

0.8

2.3

1.3

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Non-CBSA

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

23

-1.2

0.2

0.2

1.4

2.1

2.2

2.4

3.1

3.7

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH

Evansville, IN-KY

Clarksville, TN-KY

Owensboro, KY

Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Bowling Green, KY

Lexington-Fayette, KY

Population Growth 2010-2013 Metropolitan Areas

24

-6.3

-2.8

-1.2

-0.6

-0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.4

2.3

2.5

2.5

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Union City, TN-KYMiddlesborough, KY

Maysville, KYMadisonville, KY

Paducah, KY-ILDanville, KYLondon, KY

Campbellsville, KYMayfield, KYFrankfort, KYSomerset, KY

Murray, KYGlasgow, KY

Richmond-Berea, KYMount Sterling, KY

Bardstown, KY

Population Growth 2010-2013 Micropolitan Areas

25

-3.0

-1.9

-1.3

-0.7

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

0.3

0.8

0.9

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Kentucky RiverBig Sandy

FIVCOCumberland Valley

Buffalo TracePennyrilePurchase

Lake CumberlandGreen River

GatewayLincoln Trail

Northern KentuckyBarren River

KIPDABluegrass

Population Growth 2010-2013 Area Development Districts

26

23.1

22.5 40.0

14.4

Estimate 2013 by Age

00-17

18-34

35-64

65+

27

22.2

22.6

23.6

23.1

20.4

21.8

23.6

22.5

41.2

39.8

39.5

40.0

16.2

15.8

13.3

14.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Non-CBSA

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

2013 Age Distribution by CBSA

00-17 18-34 35-64 65+

28

21.3

24.0

25.1

24.7

22.3

21.4

23.2

23.8

21.8

21.7

22.9

23.5

22.2

21.7

23.1

21.7

23.5

22.3

22.0

20.1

20.2

22.4

20.9

24.4

19.7

21.2

19.0

25.2

20.6

24.0

39.0

36.9

40.3

39.9

40.3

43.0

40.5

39.6

39.4

41.4

40.7

41.4

39.3

42.6

38.3

18.0

15.6

12.3

13.4

17.3

15.4

13.8

15.8

14.4

17.2

15.3

16.1

13.2

15.1

14.7

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Purchase

Pennyrile

Northern Kentucky

Lincoln Trail

Lake Cumberland

Kentucky River

Kentuckiana

Green River

Gateway

FIVCO

Cumberland Valley

Buffalo Trace

Bluegrass

Big Sandy

Barren River

2013 Age Distribution by ADDs

00-17 18-34 35-64 65+

29

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Kentucky Metropolitan Micropolitan Non-CBSA

0-17 18-34 35-64 65+

Percent Change in Population by Age 2010-2013

30

85.6%

8.0%

3.1% 3.3%

Estimate 2013 by Race

White

Black

Other

Hispanic

31

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Non-CBSA

Micropolitan

Metropolitan

Kentucky

White Black Other Hispanic

2013 Race Distribution by CBSA

32

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Purchase

Pennyrile

Northern Kentucky

Lincoln Trail

Lake Cumberland

Kentucky River

Kentuckiana

Green River

Gateway

FIVCO

Cumberland Valley

Buffalo Trace

Bluegrass

Big Sandy

Barren River

White Black Other Hispanic

2013 Race Distribution by ADD

33

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Kentucky Metropolitan Micropolitan Non-CBSA

White Black Other Hispanic

Percent Change in Population by Race 2010-2013

34

What do the 2013 Estimates tell us? 1. The majority of the state’s growth is occurring in

the Metropolitan areas of the state.

2. The population is getting older.

3. The non-Hispanic white population is, by far, growing much slower than the minority population.

35

Three most salient demographic trends 2000-2010

1. Urban areas grew much more than rural areas.

2. The population got older.

3. Minorities grew at a faster rate than the majority (white, non-Hispanic) population

Price, Michael (2011, December 13). Kentucky Population Growth: What did the 2010 Census tell us? Kentucky State Data Center Research Report, 1 (1).

36

Population Estimates

Tom Sawyer Kentucky State Data Center University of Louisville tsawyer@louisville.edu 502-852-8913