population change in the countryside: what does it mean for rural iowa? j. gordon arbuckle, jr....
TRANSCRIPT
Population Change in The Countryside: What Does It
Mean for Rural Iowa?
J. Gordon Arbuckle, Jr.Extension Sociology
Andrea RichGraduate Research Assistant,
SociologyPhoto courtesy of USDA/NRCS
• What are the population trends?• What are some of the factors driving change?• What might those changes mean for rural Iowa, Extension?
Overview
Some definition of terms…
Urban: • Urbanized areas: urban center with greater
than 50,000 people. Core with 1000 people/square mile, and periphery with 500 people/square mile
• Urban clusters: centers with between 2,500 and 50,000 people
Rural:• Everyone who does not reside in urban
areas
Some definition of terms…Metropolitan statistical areas: • Core counties containing urbanized areas• Outlying counties where 25%+ workers
commute to core countiesNonmetro:• Micropolitan areas: counties that have
urban centers of 10,000 people or more• Noncore counties: all the restNote: Metropolitan counties have many
rural residents!
Some definition of terms…
Iowa Rural-Urban Population Trends, 1950-2000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1950 1980 1990 2000
Farm
RuralNonfarm
Urban
Rural39%
Urban61%
Rural-Urban Ratio, 2000
Rural-Urban Ratio, 1980-2000
Urban
Rural
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1990 2000
Iowa’s Rural Population, 1940-2000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2Millions
Country Place Farm
Rural non-farm town
under 2,50042%
Rural non-farm open
country43%
Farm15%
Rural Farm, Place, and Open Country, 2000
What’s behind these population shifts?
• Farm population: continuing decline• Rural non-farm population increasing
– Agricultural jobs disappear, but rural residents remain in communities
– Shrinking of small towns increases non-farm population: under 2,500 pop. is rural non-farm
– Newcomers moving into rural communities
Rural Non-Farm Population Change, 1990-2000
D ecrease1-10%11-25%26-50%51% +
12.1%
2.6%
15.5%
7.1%
49.3%
28.0%
27.0%
15.3%
15.9%
10.2%
-5.5% 4.3%
6.3%
9.2%
22.4%
17.0%
10.9%
7.7%
12.5%
20.7%
13.6%
1.9%
29.0%
11.9%
17.0%
46.0%7.4%
11.1%
2.1%
-139.1%
16.3%
4.3%
13.3%
12.3%
20.6%
5.9%
22.6%
10.2%
12.8%
17.2%
9.0%
35.7%
12.1%
16.5%
14.8%
-4.2%
9.8%
14.1%
-24.9%
14.4%
18.2%
22.4%
21.0%
8.3%
8.2%
12.5%
9.6%
11.1%
24.9%
38.5%
13.6% 9.7%25.2%
9.4%
15.0%
11.7%
13.2%
19.9%11.7%
11.7%
13.3%
15.0%
8.4%
15.3%
19.0% 3.0%
13.5%
9.0%
4.3%
9.8%
28.7%
23.7%18.0%
11.2%
14.9%-3.0%
11.4%
13.7%
7.5%
2.7%
21.7% 18.2%
4.0%
4.2%
6.9%22.7%
19.8%
9.0%
54.1%
Lyon
Sioux
Plym outh
W oodbury
Montgom ery
Harrison
Monona
Pottawattam ie
Mills
Fremont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis
Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson
Van Buren
Lee
HenryDes
Moines
Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington
Louisa
Muscatine
Scott
Cedar
Clinton
JacksonJonesLinn
Johnson
Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee
Ida
Dickinson
Clay
Buena Vista
Em m et
Palo Alto
Pocahontas
Sac
Crawford
Shelby Audubon
Carroll
Calhoun
Greene
Guthrie
Kossuth
Hum boldt
W ebster
Boone
Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa
Tam a BentonStory Marshall
Ham ilton Hardin Grundy
Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque
W right Franklin Butler Brem er
Fayette Clayton
W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago
Hancock
W orth
Cerro Gordo
Mitchell
Floyd
Howard
Chickasaw
What’s behind these population shifts?
• Shifting Social Values: Push and Pull– Urban and suburban living no longer epitome
of American dream– “Rural living” drawing people back to country
• Transportation & Commuting – Improved highways and vehicles facilitate
commuting– The line between urban and rural is blurred
as more people travel to metro areas to work
Pull Factors: Amenities
• Amenities can be defined as assets that attract residents and visitors – Natural Amenities – Cultural Amenities
• Quality of life considerations rival economic factors in decisions to stay in, migrate to rural areas
Courtesy of FreeNaturePictures
• Water, Mountains, Forests, Sunshine– Coastlines– Parks and other outdoor recreation
opportunities– Resorts
• Wilderness and open spaces are important draws
• Areas with uncommon natural beauty growing fastest
Natural Amenities
Natural Amenities
• In the Midwest, lakes, rivers, trails, parks are the primary natural amenities
• Natural amenities contribute to growth in population, economic activity, new housing
• People are willing to make economic sacrifices in order to live in places rich in natural amenities
Cultural Amenities: Quality of Life
• Americans feel a sentimental tie to “the rural”– Historic buildings: “Main Street”– Agrarian roots of nation: Farm landscapes
• Quality of life key factor– Safety, quiet, slower pace of life, lower housing costs
• Rural/small town characteristics (social capital)– Residents traditionally have strong ties to their community
and to one another– Rural communities have increased density of
acquaintanceship-people know one another across generations
– Neighborliness: rural residents willing to pitch in when they see a need
Commuting
• Communities within “commuter zones” adjacent to metro areas are growing
• Means by which long time residents can remain in their community
• Allows urban/suburban residents to move to rural areas
• Increased connections between rural and urban areas
MontgomeryMills Adams
Fremont Page Taylor
Union
Ringgold
Clarke
Decatur
MadisonAdairCassPottawattamie
Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas
BooneGreeneCarrollCrawfordMonona
W oodbury
Plymouth
Sioux
Lyon Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee
Ida Sac
Buena Vista
Clay
Dickinson Emmet
Palo Alto
Pocahontas
Calhoun
W ebster
Humboldt
Kossuth W innebago
Hancock
W right
Hamilton
W orth Mitchell Howard W inneshiek Allamakee
ClaytonFayette
Chickasaw
BremerButler
FloydCerro Gordo
Franklin
Hardin Grundy
Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware
LinnBentonTama
MarshallStory
Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa Johnson
Dubuque
Jones Jackson
Clinton
Cedar
Scott
Muscatine
W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington
Louisa
Des Moines
Henry
Lee
Jefferson
Van BurenDavis
W apelloMonroe
AppanooseW ayne
Lucas
0-10%11-25%26-50%51% +
Percentage of workers who commute
Positive Impacts of Newcomers
• Social Diversity– Different perspectives and experiences– Can bring new ideas to communities– Focus on preserving cultural and natural resources
• Economic Benefits – Often invest in new enterprises– Networks that extend outside of the receiving
community can bring economic resources and expertise
– Transfer of resources from urban to rural areas
Potential Negative Impacts of Newcomers
• Weakened social solidarity– Possible insider/outsider mentality– Social relationships take time to
develop• Newcomers may be
unprepared for rural life: expectations vs. reality– Odors associated with livestock– Self-provision of water, sewer– Fewer services available
Potential Negative Impacts of Newcomers
• Newcomers’ expectations and objectives may clash with those of long-time residents– preservationism vs. property rights– Environmentalism vs. production– Increased farmland prices
• Increases in population can lead to degradation of conditions and resources that attracted newcomers
Lyon
Sioux
Plym outh
W oodbury
Montgom ery
Harrison
Monona
Pottawattam ie
Mills
Fremont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis
Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson
Van Buren
Lee
HenryDes
Moines
Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington
Louisa
Muscatine
Scott
Cedar
Clinton
JacksonJonesLinn
Johnson
Osceola
O'Brien
Cherokee
Ida
Dickinson
Clay
Buena Vista
Em m et
Palo Alto
Pocahontas
Sac
Crawford
Shelby Audubon
Carroll
Calhoun
Greene
Guthrie
Kossuth
Hum boldt
W ebster
Boone
Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa
Tam a BentonStory Marshall
Ham ilton Hardin Grundy
Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque
W right Franklin Butler Brem er
Fayette Clayton
W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago
Hancock
W orth
Cerro Gordo
Mitchell
Floyd
Howard
Chickasaw
Case Study: Cass County
Case Study: Cass County
• 2006 Population : 14,124• Population has decreased, but rural
non-farm population has increased• Low farm income dependence
– Less than 10% of income earned in the county comes from farm sources
Case Study: Cass County
• Key Informant Interviews– School Officials– Real Estate Agents – Economic Development Officials
Commuting
• 84% of Cass County labor force lives in the county– Large draws from Pottawattamie &
Audubon County• 19% of residents commute
– 541 to Omaha/Council Bluffs– 113 to Des Moines – 209 to Montgomery County
Cultural Amenities
• Small town feel– Safety– Relationships with
neighbors– Vounteerism/community
pride
• Services– YMCA– Hospital– Ease of retirement
• Low Cost of living
Natural Amenities
• Living in the Country– Peace– Privacy– Opportunity for animals
• 4-H!
• Natural Amenities – Not mentioned in interviews
Initial Findings: Who’s moving?
• In 2005, 65% of Cass County residents lived in the same home as 2000
• Economic differences affect how welcomed newcomers felt
• Informants believed many newcomers were people moving back rather than moving in
Opportunities Associated with new “Rural Rebound”
• Transfer of income, assets to rural areas
• New entrepreneurship ideas and opportunities– Services, restaurants, shops
• Increased demand for local food systems– New producers, products– Farmers markets– Agritourism
Opportunities Associated with new “Rural Rebound”
• New residents can provide impetus for further development of natural, cultural amenities– Bike trails, natural areas– Historic preservation
• Acreage landowners– Interest in wildlife, habitat
improvement– Alternative agricultural
activities
Courting Newcomers: Greenfield, IA
Things to consider…• Active development of cultural and natural
amenities effective means of retaining residents, attracting newcomers, visitors
• As urban areas grow, so does desire to move to/return to rural areas: people will continue to move in
• Newcomers often have different expectations, can lead to conflict– Environment: consumption vs. production
• Fuel prices and commuting, telecommuting?