Population

Sources:

The World Food Problem

Leathers and Foster, 2004

World Hunger 12 MythsLappe Collins and Rossett, 1998

Hesketh et al.,New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176

Wikipedia

http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg

Thomas Malthus

• 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society

– Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence

– Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically

– The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.

http://www.lakesideschool.org/studentweb/worldhistory/modernworld/images/malthus.jpg

Paul Ehrlich

• 1968: The Population Bomb

• “The battle to feed all of humanity is over.

• In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—

• Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”

http://bacs-s02.bacs.uq.edu.au/sib/sib-news/images/ehrlich1.jpg

World Population through History

http://newswhitehouse.com/worldpop.gif

Demographic Transition

• First, high birth rates and high death rates

• Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop

• Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

Global Death Rates

• Demographic Transition:– First, death rates must drop– Then birth rates drop http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/

commons/thumb/d/d7/Death_rate_world_map.PNG/800px-Death_rate_world_map.PNG

Demographic Transition

• 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries

• 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries

• 2050: Projected completion of transition

Demographic Transition

• Example: U.S. History– When agrarian

society, people had many kids

• Source of security, labor

Demographic Transition

• Example: U.S. History– When became industrial,

fewer kids/family• Lowered infant

mortality• No need to rely on

children’s labor• More opportunities for

women• Happened without

birth control

Ford Motor assembly line

http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pcatapano/lectures_us2/Model_T_Assembly_Line.jpg

Global Fertility

• 1950’s: 5 children/woman

• 1970’s: 4 children/woman

• 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman

• Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

Global Population

• Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop

• Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China– Great Leap Forward

Famine

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/img/worldgr.gif

World Population Projection• Estimated to peak at 9 billion in 2070

World Population Growth

World Population Demographics

• Asia: 6.4 Billion

– China:: 1.3 Billion

– India: : 1.1 Billion

• Africa: 885 Million

• Americas: 875 Million

• Europe:: 727 Million

• Oceana: 32 Million

http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/livestocksystems/images/7220f03.gif

World Population

http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-gpw-population-map.gif

AIDS

• 40 million people infected with HIV– 2/3 in sub Sahara Africa– Many will die of AIDS

• Will not greatly impact global population growth

• Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020:

– Uganda 45% – Rwanda 35%– Malawi 30%

Malawi AIDS orphanshttp://farm1.static.flickr.com/177/433616103_bd3f7cbef2.jpg?v=0

Global HIV 2006

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/68/People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG/800px-People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG

Food Production per Capita

• Food Production per capita is rising worldwide– But falling in Africa

• Food production is keeping up with population– Otherwise food prices

would have risen– Food prices have dropped

Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein

Progressivist View• Things are good and getting

better: – Worldwide standard of living

– Education

– Health

– Trade

• People are an asset.

• Population causes shortages which raise prices, – stimulating entrepreneurs to

satisfy the shortages.

• We end up better off as a result.Julian Simon

Progressivist View

• Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are – Decreased Infant

Mortality

– Increased Life Expectancy

Progressivist View

Progress

Population stimulates economy: progress. We are all better off

Poor

Elite

Elite

Poor

Revisionist View

• Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of – Population growth– Ecological destruction– Social tyranny.

• The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies

– humans believe they are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem)

– and therefore can destroy it at will.

Civilization is based on Agriculture

http://cache.virtualtourist.com/1928244-Skyline-New_York_City.jpg

Daniel Quinn

• 1992: Ishmael – Although population is 5.5 billion, we

produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving

– Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people.

– Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.

– Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion

– To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

Agricultural Revolution

Hunters & Gatherers

Agriculture

Population GrowthTechnology

Conquest for land

Food production

Culture

Expanding population & environmental destruction

Elite

Poor

Agriculture, Anti-Ecological Religion

Social Tyranny

Wealth Resources

Over-Population, Ecological Destruction

Revisionist View

Root Causes

Social Equity View

• Problems of – poverty

– overpopulation

– ecological destruction

• Are due to – inequity of wealth

– unfairness of economic and social systems

Frances Moore Lappe, Food First

http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg

Social Equity View

• Inequity causes overpopulation– Poor have no other source

of wealth

• Overpopulation causes ecological destruction

• Must make economic and social systems fairer– Share control of global

resources more fairly– Economic democracy

http://bks4.books.google.com/books?id=AoMrJnk-qhgC&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&sig=ACfU3U3gtcaFOie7F_YcDq-G10QXTEZAQg

Social Equity View

Inequity

PoorOver-Population

Ecological Destruction

Elite

Wealth

= Root Cause

If the world were 100 people

http://shoesforhumanity.org/images/graph.gif

If the world were 100 people (2008)

• 50 male– 50 female

• 61 Asians– 13 Africans – 12 Europeans – 9 Latin Americans– 5 USA and Canada – 1 South Pacific

• 75 nonwhite– 25 white

• 67 non-Christian– 33 Christian

• 60 mistrust their own governments

(Source: Family Care Foundation; 100 people.org)

If the world were 100 people(2008)

• 47 are urban dwellers– 15 live in urban slums

• 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income

• 6 control 50% of the entire world’s wealth – Most are U.S. citizens

• 1 has a college education

• 1 owns a computer

• 1 near birth– 1 near death

Both hunger and high fertility occur when:

• Poverty is extreme and widespread

• Society denies security and opportunity to people

• Infant mortality is high

• Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security

• Few opportunities for women outside of home

Bangladesh motherhttp://www.refugeesinternational.org/files/4738_image1_BA_1104_bihari_mother_and_child.jpg

Children

• Labor force

• Chance for a job in city

• Security– major investment

– rational choice

218 million children workhttp://mancelovici.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/nike_child_labor.jpg

Women’s Education

• Powerful predictor of lower fertility

• Reflects opportunity in society

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg/800px-Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg

Girls in school, India

Male Poverty

• Low self-esteem

• Dominate women and children

• Thus more children

Examples

• Sri Lanka: – lower price rice

• led to population decline

• Cuba: – low prices for food and health care

• reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6

• Kerala, India: – lower price rice, kerosene

• 1/3 birth rate of average in India• Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in

India

Kerala, India

http://www.kerala-tourism-india.com/gifs/woman-harvesting-rice-fields-lower.jpg

Family Planning• Birth Control is responsible for only 15-

20% total fertility decline– Thus population growth cannot be brought

down simply by family planning or contraception

– but it can speed the decline

• Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased – 9% in 1960– 60% in late 1990s

• Demographic Transition requires improved– Health– Social Security– Education

IUD: Intra Uterine Device

http://www.plymouth.edu/wsgr/iud.jpg

Global Fertility

http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/15.whostat2005map_totalfertilityrate.jpg

Sterilization

• Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries– Quotas are set

– Incentives are used• Cash, roads, transportation,

latrines

• For hungry, choices are limited

• 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized

Indian woman

Puerto Rico: La Operacion

• U. S. seized in 1898– Spanish American war

• Sugar companies set up vast plantations– Small farmers evicted

• By 1925 – 2% of population owned 80% of land – 70% of population landless’

• Unemployment – termed “overpopulation” by U.S.

• By 1940’s – light manufacturing moved in

• attracted to cheap labor, low taxes

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/puerto_rico.jpg

Puerto Rico: La Operacion

• Young women were key to labor force– Problem was pregnancy

• Result: massive sterilization program

• Women coerced into sterilization– without being told it was irreversible

• By 1968– 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized

• Emigration and sterilization – resulted in population drop

• with no increase in standard of living.

Bangladesh

• Intensive Family Planning– in Matlab region

• Contraceptive use doubled

• Resulted in reduced birth rate

• Cost was very high:– $120/birth averted

• This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product

• Not replicable on a national scale

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/HEALTH/parenting/05/08/mothers.index/story.vert.1.1.jpg

China

• 1950s, 60s Under Mao– children encouraged

– Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman

• 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation– “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”

– “late, long, few”• Have fewer children later

• greater spacing between

• Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_congress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm

Fertility decline in China

China One Child Policy

• 1979 “one child” policy enacted– For urban areas

• Material benefits – if have 1 child

• Social & official pressure– If have more than 1 child

• 71% Chinese are rural– Multiple children are common

• Fertility rate has declined – But also declined in other Asian

countries without coercion

• Human rights violation?http://www.timeopinionleaders.com/blog/images/uploads/knCHINA_BABIES_wideweb__470x316,0.jpg

Birth Control Methods in China

Abortion Rates in China

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/prc/ab-prcp2.html

Skewed sex ratio

• Sex ratio at birth (2000)– 117:100 male:female

• Maternal Hepatitis B may account for much of the skewing

• Boys preferred– Men care for parents in old age– Women join husband’s family

• Care for husband’s parents

• Selective abortion of girls– Use ultrasound to determine sex– If first child is a girl, want second to be a

boy– Illegal but suspected

• Female infanticide suspected– before ultrasound