politics now jon pevehouse public opinion and american foreign policy
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Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy
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Public Opinion and AFP
• Survey of 18-24 y.o. Americans• 11% of Americans cannot find the U.S. on the
map• 29% cannot find the Pacific Ocean• 58% cannot find Japan• 69% cannot find the UK
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A tough one…
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Easier than…
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Ok, maybe we’re just bad at geography…
• 1994: 46% of Americans believed the 2 largest expenditures in the federal budget were: foreign affairs and welfare
• 1993: 25% of Americans could ID any ethnic group fighting in Bosnia
• 1985: 28% of Americans thought the U.S. fought the USSR in World War II
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Does public opinion matter?
• Traditional view: NO!– Almond-Lippmann thesis– Public opinion is:• Uninformed• Volatile• Lacking in coherence
– Even if leaders followed public opinion, they would have no way of knowing what direction to go…
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Public Opinion: Somalia
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Public Opinion: Haiti
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Public Opinion: Bosnia
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Public Opinion: Kosovo
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Traditional View of Public Opinion
• Most Americans are non-attentive…• …but it probably didn’t matter given the “Cold
War Consensus”– Ex. 1961 Gallup Poll: “Would you fight an all-out
nuclear war than live under Communist rule?”– Would rather fight in a nuclear war: 81%
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Does public opinion matter?
• New/Revisionist view: YES!– Re-alignment after Vietnam: breakdown of the
consensus– Public opinion is relatively coherent: the lack of
factual knowledge does not mean lack of consistency…
– When public opinion changes – it is in response to events, not random fluctuations…
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Iraq
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Afghanistan
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The “Pretty Prudent Public”
• US public’s attitudes seem all over the place on intervention
• Jentleson: Not hawks or doves, just prudent.• Polls from post-Vietnam conflicts:– Americans support use of force when goal is
foreign policy restraint of another state– Americans less support for force aimed at internal
regime change of another state
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Still a “Pretty Prudent Public”?
• Iraq: 54% support invasion 1 week prior (60% if UN SC support is given)
• Afghanistan: 88% supported invasion (2001)– Today: Majority favors continuing war, but that
number drops to about 20-25% if object of war is to “secure democracy”
• Afghanistan: different support dynamics based on this high starting point:
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Afghanistan
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How might public opinion matter?
• Direct influence on Congress/President– Magnitudes need to be strong!
• Indirect influence– Anticipated reaction– “boundary setting”
• But what if it works the other way around?– What if elites lead the public, especially if they are
relatively disinterested in foreign affairs?
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Indexing Theory
• Idea that media “indexes” their coverage by what elites are saying (Bennett; Entman)
• If there are elite debates (i.e., Congress vs. President), then it gets covered.
• Non-elite debate gets much less coverage…• Implications:– Can public opinion make a difference?– Can Congress make a difference?
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Study of Local Media
• Our study: 50 largest media markets; all local news broadcasts from two weeks before until two weeks after Congressional debate over force authorization measure
• Data: 10,000 news broadcasts; 5500 hours of programs
• Findings: Media follows Congress; Public opinion follows media; President’s pay attention to the public (similar to Zaller)
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Congressional Speeches
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NY Times Coverage
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Local News
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Support for Iraq War
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Why does it matter?
• International Relations Theory– Theories of audience costs rely on voter judgment– Median voter/electoral models often assume
knowledge of policy and votes– Idea of diversionary behavior assumes fickle public
opinion– Studies of American Foreign Policy often assume
one way causation
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Why does it matter?
• Public Policy: Afghanistan/Globalization• Afghanistan: Will public continue to support
the war there?
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Globalization
• Are there more economic “adjustments” in the future?
• Will the U.S. need to belt tighten to address imbalances?
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Do Americans Like Trade/Globalization?
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Conclusion
• We still do not have a good answer as to whether publics lead elites or vice-versa.– Depends on issue and salience
• Future military challenges in Afghanistan will likely have some public support in the long run.
• Future economic challenges that require costly US adjustments could be more problematic