political demography: demographic change and global futures jack a. goldstone december 13 foreign...
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POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY:Demographic Change and Global Futures
Jack A. Goldstone
December 13Foreign Policy Research Institute
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POPULATION MEGATRENDS
1. Big emerging markets and the world economy
2. Aging and shrinking workforces in the developed countries
3. Youth and Islam: The New face of the developing world
4. An Urban, not rural, world
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Where will the People Be?
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Global Labor Force Growth
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Worker Growth vs. Elderly Growth
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Increase in Older Folks in the US
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Percentage of Population under 15 years old, 2005
Red: 40+ Pink: 30-39 Light Blue: 20-29 Dark Blue: <20
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The Youth Surge in the Middle East(Ages 15-29)
Youth 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.53Bulge
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Muslim Growth in the World
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Growth in Pop 15-44 age group
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An Urban World
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What are the Solutions?
• FLEXIBILITY– Retirement /Work/Education– Immigration and Emigration– Business start-up and innovation to find Market-based solutions
• MORE GLOBALIZATION– Open Trade and Human Exchange, New Urbanism– Have faith in European/Liberal Values– Globalization of Education!
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What are We Doing About it?
• Investing in Education? No.• Investing in Basic Research? No.• Improving Energy Grid/Efficiency? No.• Improving attraction to top migrants? No.• Pulling together, sharing sacrifice? NO, NO, NO.
• Complaining about taxes, government, regulation? YES, YES, YES.