political advertising 2011-2012 rab webinarof a political media campaign plan – not an...

Political Advertising 2011-2012RAB Webinar

Radio Advertising Bureauwww.rab.com

Copyright 2011

Presented by:Presented by:

Sheila F. KirbySVP Professional Development

Radio Advertising Bureau

Sheila F. KirbySVP Professional Development

Radio Advertising Bureau

Annette MalaveVP Business DevelopmentRadio Advertising Bureau

Annette MalaveVP Business DevelopmentRadio Advertising Bureau

In Politics, Winning is Everything!In Politics, Winning is Everything!

Anne-Marie PetrieVP Political Advertising

CBS Radio

Anne-Marie PetrieVP Political Advertising

CBS Radio

Patrick McGeeVP, Manager

Katz Radio Group

Patrick McGeeVP, Manager

Katz Radio Group



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What We Will Cover

• Program Highlights

P liti l L d A M Vi• Political Landscape - A Macro View • Nuances of Candidate and Issue advertising

• Party perspectives

• Key dates, spending

• Research, Preparation and Sales• Who to talk to and when

• Know your rates now

• Compliance - understanding the rules and regulations

• Your stations “brand” and how to market it

• Available resources on www.RAB.com

Candidate Issue



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Candidate vs. Issue

• Candidate• Has publicly announced his or her intention to run for nomination or officep y

• Is qualified under the applicable local, State or Federal law to hold the office for which he or she is a candidate

• Has qualified for a place on the ballot

• Has publicly committed himself or herself to seeking election by the write-in method

• Issue• Advertising that is not intended to sell a product or service, but rather to g p ,

change people's opinions or influence policy

• Spots must contain the proper sponsorship identification, and a list of officers of the sponsor must be placed in the local public inspection file

Source: Excerpts from “Radio and Political Advertising: A handbook for the Account Executive “; Financial Times.com

2012 Will Be A Year Like No Other

• 2010 Supreme Court ruling redefined the political advertising landscape

• Forecasters predict political ad spending to hit record levels



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Political Spending

Year Total $ Radio $ Radio Share

2000 1 22B 128MM 10 5%2000 1.22B 128MM 10.5%

2002 1.63B 154MM 9%

2004 2.75B 175MM 6%

2006 3.14B 257MM 8%

2008 4.22B 264MM 6%

2010 4.55B 308MM 7%

Source: PQ Media, Political Campaign Spending 2010; Total dollars includes all political and marketing dollars

“2012 Campaign Media Spending Forecast to Exceed $5.6B”

Anne-Marie PetrieVP Political AdvertisingCBS Radio

Anne-Marie PetrieVP Political AdvertisingCBS Radio



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POLITICS ARE IMPORTANT:IT’S THE ULTIMATE GAME

PALEPALE

2012 IS NOT A REPEAT OF 2008



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WHAT’S NEW IN 2012

1. Sitting President is Running

2. No contentious Democratic (Obama vs. Clinton) primary( ) p y

3. Has to run on own record and not anti-Bush

• “Change You Can Believe In”

4. World Events

• Peace in the Middle East seems further away than ever beforePeace in the Middle East seems further away than ever before• Turmoil in Arab World• Changing world economy – rise of China and India, problems

in the EU, Japan


5. Changing voting procedures

• Could have an effect on who votes, not only in the presidential election but in Senate contests next year inpresidential election but in Senate contests next year in Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio.

• Florida limits early voting window - reducing the number of early voting days from fourteen to eight. It also adds new rules for voters who change addresses and imposes new requirements on groups, including labor unions, that register new voters.

• Voter ID: Republican legislators and governors have been moving to change election laws in order to deter voter fraud or, Democrats say, to limit the number of voters.



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6. Tea Party

• Question is not whether Tea Party will have influence, b t h t ki d f i fl ill it h ?but what kind of influence will it have?

7. Economy

• Unemployment, foreclosures, national debt, taxes

8. Electoral Landscape Has Changed• Obama’s electoral landscape became a whole lot smaller

after November 2, 2010 than it was during 2008. Here is the view of key states for Obama post November 2010.




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9. 2010 Census

• Data showed the U.S. population had grown to 308,745,538 people, a 9.7 percent growth from 2000. This growth rate is the lowest since the Great Depression One of the most significant outcomes of the


the Great Depression. One of the most significant outcomes of the census results is the re-apportionment of seats in Congress. The biggest changes were New York and Ohio, both losing 2 seats, while Florida gained 2 seats and Texas gained 4 seats.

• Hispanic population is rising faster than anticipated. According to the 2010 Census, the population identifying itself as Hispanic or Latino grew by 43.0 percent from 2000 to 2010. According to 2010 Census data there are 118 existing congressional districts in which moredata, there are 118 existing congressional districts in which more than one-fifth of the population is Hispanic. 93 of those districts are in California, Texas, Florida, and New York, the four states with the most 2012 electoral votes. Florida is a crucial swing state, alongside Colorado and Nevada, which have seen 41.2 percent and 81.9 percent growth in the Hispanic population, respectively, since 2000.


10. Citizens United Ruling

• Corporate funding of independent political broadcasts in candidate elections cannot be limited—because of the First Amendment. The 5–4 decision, in favor of Citizens United, resulted from a dispute over whether the non-profit corporation Citizens United could air a film critical of Hillary Clinton, and whether the group could advertise the film in broadcast ads featuring Clinton's image, in apparent violation of the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Actviolation of the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, commonly known as the McCain–Feingold Act Ruling.



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11. Matching Federal Funds

• In 2008 McCain took Federal Funds, Obama did not. It is expected that in 2012 the Republican candidate will not take Federal Funds….thus more money on both sides.

STATES IN PLAY IN 2012NEED 270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN

ArizonaNevadaFloridaOhio

WisconsinMichigan

PennsylvaniaTexas.

Depending on GOP nomination also could be:North CarolinaNorth Carolina

WashingtonOregon

MinnesotaMissouri



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WHO IS THE POLITICAL CLIENT?POLITICAL CLIENT?

FOUR DIFFERENT TYPES OF CLIENTS

1. Issue/Ballot Measure

2. Candidate Campaigns

3. Independent Expenditures

4. Political Advocacy (Health Care, Cap & Trade, Card Check, etc.)



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MULTIPLE POINTS OF BALLOT MEASURE CONTACT

ExecutiveCommittee/Big Donors

Chair of Executive

Committee

Creative

Communications Director

Outbound Calling“R b C lli ”

Creative

Message

Agency

Political Consultant

Ground Campaign/Grassroots

Speakers Bureau/Endorsement Outreach

“Robo Calling”

Earned Media

InternetPolling

CANDIDATES: MULTIPLE POINTS OF CONTACT



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INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES

► These independent committees can receive and spend UNLIMITED CONTRIBUTIONS – makes candidate races much more lucrative (No LUR)

► They MUST operate independently from the candidate’s campaign

►Recent Supreme Court Decision has opened this up primarily for Federal Senate Races

WHO ARE THE INDEPENDENTS

►Usually funded by Labor Unions, Business Groups

► Typically there is one sponsor of these campaigns – one person, one group (vs. ad hoc)

►Educate voters about good/bad aspects of a certain candidate (ex. Swift Boaters)



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IN POLITICS-WINNING IS EVERYTHING

WINNING IS EVERYTHING

Losing is NOT an Option

Need to convince 50%of voters to see their side

Victory must come first time out on most issue campaigns

Significant rise in the cost of campaigns as every means to communicate with and influence voters is

explored



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THERE IS NO SECOND CHANCE

► Time frames prior to elections are fairly short in the hearts and minds of votersand minds of voters

► Specific tactics can be altered but the overall strategic plan is seldom changed

►We must influence the strategic plan

KEYS TO SUCCESS

Persuadable Swing Voter/Independents

► These are the most coveted voters in any ycampaign. In close contests this is where most of the money is being spent. They will be the ones who decide who wins and who loses. The battle is over the hearts and minds of these independent voters.

► Largest growing voting segment –the unofficial “new” third party with Republicans & Democrats



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RADIO NEEDS TO BE AN INTEGRAL PART OF A POLITICAL MEDIA CAMPAIGN PLAN – NOT AN AFTER-THOUGHT FOLLOWING TV

You need TV for reach BUT radio is a strategyto key into your persuadable swing voters.

Radio will influence the voting segments your polling indicates that you needto reach to WIN.

DIGITAL PRESENCE

Combines the power of audio and videoPre-rolls can be of any length to fully communicate the messagePre-rolls can be used to create awareness and interestPre-rolls lets you repurpose TV ads

Niche targetingStation websites can be used to effectively target niche voters

PersuasionUse mobile capabilities to target voters where they are.i.e. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) geo-targeted voters p ( ) g gattending the state fair via their cell phones.



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RADIO COMPLEMENTS INTERNET USAGEOver the air with streaming radio creates magic.

Source: Nielsen’s “How U.S. Adults use Radio and other forms of Audio”, 2009.

INTERNET RADIO USE INCREASES BROADCAST RADIO AD RESPONSES

The positive impact of Internet Radio listenership on Broadcast Radio’s ad response is significant as well as broad and includes both online and offline actions – well beyond the click. Users who also listen to Internet Radio were more than 3x more likely than Broadcast Radio-Only listeners to take specific action from an ad, e.g., search for more information or go to an advertiser’s website.

Source: TargetSpot Internet Radio Advertising Impact Study 2011 – Research by Parks Associates.



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HOMEWORK: KNOWLEDGE IS POWERTHE 7 POINT ROADMAP

1. Know your candidate or issue

2. Stay close to your contact and polling information

3. Read the local and national papers – tremendous source of information

4. Know how much money has been spent in the past races

5. Find out who the political consultants are

6. Check secretary of state to find out who and what is going on the ballot or ballotpedia.org

7. Find out where the money is. Do due diligence!

Patrick McGeeVP, Manager Katz Radio Group

Patrick McGeeVP, Manager Katz Radio Group



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Know Your Footprint

You Are

• Understand the districts that impact your market

• Example: There are 10 U.S. Congressional Districts for Philadelphia market (NJ, PA, DE)

• Research what races will impact markets and when they occur

You Are Here

markets and when they occur

Mark Your Calendar

• Primary and General Elections• General Election

• November 6, 2012

• Primaries come before General Election• Presidential and state primaries

• Varying dates

• 20 states will have primaries by end of Q1 2012

• Early states to watch: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida



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2012 Overview

• 9 states with BOTH Gubernatorial and Senate Races

• DOZENS of issue organizations and outside interest groups

• And of course….Presidential

Pricing

• Candidates and Lowest Unit Rate (LUR)Candidates and Lowest Unit Rate (LUR)• Legally qualified candidates can receive LUR

discounts:

• 45 days prior to the Primary

• 60 days prior to the General Election

• Stations must accept Federal*

• Benefit in accepting all state, local – “down ballot” races

*Federal: If candidate reports to work in DC



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Pricing

• Issue or Proposition and Lowest Unit Rate p(LUR)

• Do not qualify for LUR

• Stations can use prevailing rates/costs to clear

• Be smart about pricing• Term “issue rate” is becoming a dirty word

• Be mindful of your rates; don’t price yourself out

Keep Top of Mind

• Business is placed very last minute• Element of surprise is a factor in politicalp p

• Dedicate one contact for station group in the market to handle inquiries

• Competitive is vital and life blood in the category• Running a particular candidate or cause, the opposition

will want to:

• Know dates, dollars, content

• Meet or beat scheduled spend

• Forms• PB-17 NAB forms suffice for public file



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• Summary• Political Landscape - A Macro View

Getting a Bigger Share of the Political Advertising Pie

• Nuances of Candidate and Issue advertising

• Party perspectives

• Key dates, spending

• Research, Preparation and Sales• Who to talk to and when

• Know your rates now

• Compliance - understanding the rules and regulations

• Your stations “brand” and how to market it

• Available resources on www.RAB.com



Copyright 2011

Thank You For Joining Us

RAB Member Response

• 800-323-3131

• [email protected]

political advertising 2011-2012 rab webinarof a political media campaign plan – not an...

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