MOLDOVAS FOREIGN POLICY STATEWATCHInstitute for Development and Social Initiatives Viitorul

Issue 39, October 2011

NEXT TOPIC TO BE COVERED:

Politics of small statesContext

Recently, Vladimir Putin revealed his geopolitical plans for the future. They were somehow felt in his previous speeches but were not constant, however, now his intentions are clearly stated. Moreover, Russias geopolitical appetite has increased. If one has previously talked about Customs Union Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan

and possibly Ukraine (if one succeeds with its inclusion), now one adds also other countries from Central Asia, going towards creation of the Eurasian Union.

In Moldova this idea has not passed unnoticed. Moreover, it was taken and immediately embraced by the Communist Party represented by Vladimir Voronin who is publicly supporting Moldovas accession to Eurasian Union. The state of facts would not seem so serious if the Communist Party would not be the biggest party in Moldova with a great potential to promote certain ideas. Voronin explained that his support for the Eurasian Union is based on the accomplishment of Moldovas interests, namely solving the Transnistrian conflict and getting cheaper prices for energy resources. In practice this means giving up to European integration. How real is it to change the focus of Chisinau from European Union towards Eurasian Union and what would be the benefits?

LEONID LITRA

Moldovas Foreign Policy Sta-tewatch represents a series of brief analyses, written by local and foreign experts, dedicated to the most topical subjects related to the foreign policy of Moldova, major developments in the Black Sea Region, coope-ration with international orga-nizations and peace building activities in the region. It aims to create a common platform for discussion and to bring to-gether experts, commentators, officials and diplomats who are concerned with the perspecti-ves of European Integration of Moldova. It is also pertaining to offer to Moldovas diplomats and analysts a valuable tribune for debating the most interes-ting and controversial points of view that could help Moldova to find its path to EU.

EUROPEAN INTEGRATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IS IT STILL A NATIONAL CONSENSUS?

2 Moldovas Foreign Policy Statewatch

Str. Iacob Hncu 10/1, Chiinu MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

Moldova between two Unions or in two Unions

Moldovas reorientation towards Eurasian Union would mean renunciation to European integration because these two cannot be combined. The reasons are primarily economic and are well known. A potential accession, at least in the opinion of deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrei Popov, would radically change the tariff policy taking into account that the countries form-ing Customs Union are not members of the WTO and with its accession to the EU, it would be necessary for Moldova to automatically accept common customs tariffs. It is difficult to assess the benefits of such a membership, but it is certain that Moldovas accession to Customs Union will mean leaving the WTO. In fact, if one will follow this kind of scenario, the WTO does not matter so much, because Eurasian Union will anyway negotiate a tariff regime with the rest of the world. Moreover, the deep and comprehensive free trade area with the EU towards which Moldova is heading is even less compatible with the construction of Russia Eurasian Union.

From political point of view, this proposal is equally controversial. Supporters of Russian project think that Moldova will integrate into Eurasian Union and will continue to receive assis-tance from EU, counting on the policy of two chairs, a scenario where Chisinau is conveniently sitting on the two chairs and benefits from both sides. In fact, Moldova will not be placed on neither of the two chairs. A thesis actually supported also by leading thinkers from Kremlin, who consider that right now Moldova has no place, EU being too much concerned with the crisis and Russia disagreeing with states that are not loyal.

Under these circumstances we cannot forget that European Union is a reality built in time and which in spite of all difficulties is a functional structure, whereas Eurasian Union is a project which has not yet proven its viability, at least at the concept level. Moreover, seeing how actual Customs Union is functioning, especially the relationship between Russia and Belarus, we can ascertain that Putins description of the future Union based on EU model and common values of freedom, democracy and market economy seems rather window dressing, taking into consid-eration freedom, democracy and market economy in Russian today.

Finally, it is unclear how will Moldova join, if Ukraine does not join, the last has reconfirmed that EU integration remains the top priority of foreign policy and will sign by the end of this year the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU. That is a reality that may change after conviction of Yulia Timoshenko, given the dissatisfaction of the EU leaders towards this pro-cess, which is considered political and which is likely to make the relationship between EU and Ukraine rather difficult.

Moreover, the trend of economic growth is a little bit higher in states of future Eurasian Union, rather than in EU states. However, volatility of the Eurasian Union is extremely high, given the fact that Russia forms more than half of the budget on the sale of energy resources and prices sometimes vary greatly.

Moldovas national idea European Integration?

Although there have been speculations over the electoral feature of the embrace of the Eurasian Union, Voronins affirmations seem to be rather sincere and unexpected on the one

3Moldovas Foreign Policy Statewatch

Str. Iacob Hncu 10/1, Chiinu MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 fax office@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

This publication was produced by IDIS Viitorul with the financial support of Soros Foundation Moldova and the National Endowment for Democracy. The opinions expressed in this publicati-on reflect the authors/authors position and dont necessary represent the views of the donors.

Str. Iacob Hncu 10/1, Chiinu MD-2005 Republic of Moldova 373 / 22 221844 phone 373 / 22 245714 faxoffice@viitorul.org www.viitorul.org

hand, but also logical on the other hand. Unexpected because the Communist Party has been governing the country for eight years, while it had all the possibilities, even constitutional majority, to join different regional geopolitical projects. However, after several years of pro-Eastern rhetoric without significant results, the Communist Party focused on EU. Meanwhile, it is a logical step of the Communist Party, given the fact that European idea is successfully exploited by the governing Alliance for European Integration (AEI), and especially by the liberal-democrats, which leaves the Communist Party without many pan-European options. Moreover, we are witnessing the erosion of idea of European Integration and the imminent result of this erosion is the collapse of national consensus, perhaps the only one that united the two political camps. Weakening pulse of Euro-pean integration is observed even in opinion polls, and this process takes place, most likely, amid many promises from EU, such as free movement, which are still to be obtained, but also on the background of Euro-skepticism of the Communist Party towards the European idea. The prom-ises of the European Union do not come automatically, except for financial aid. But the benefits of Eurasian Union will also not come automatically, everything has a price. Moreover, it seems at least frivolous that communist leader promises things which he does not have and which the future Eurasian Union has not promised. Finally, judging by past experience we cannot ascertain that accession to Eurasian Union will solve all our problems. The time when Moldova has had a super loyal message towards Russia (2001-2003/4) did not generate anything but Kozak Plan of Transnistrian conflict settlement which was not in favor of Moldova. As for energy prices, they have always increased, regardless of (geo)political orientation.

Communist Party has clearly positioned itself and AEI parties should react as promptly. AEI should continuously support European idea first of all because they have won the elections based on European idea, but also when Moldova encountered serious economic difficulties at the time when AEI came to power, the EU was the one to offer financial aid to Chisinau.

ConclusionsEurasian Union seems like a false alternative, even if it sounds tempting at times. Regard-

less of whether it will insist or not in the future on the Eurasian construction of Moscow, European idea loses ground among citizens on the background of lack of tangible benefits and motivation for each person. The risks posed by the erosion of the European idea are mostly related to a psychological comfort lacking in a state under absence circumstances of a national idea, such as European integration.

To maintain public optimism and also to meet obligations undertaken towards citizens, Alliance parties, which won the elections on the European idea, have to defend Moldovas Eu-ropean aspirations and further promote the idea of European integration, but also to speed up some reforms, especially those related to justice, in order to benefit as soon as possible from EU promises.