policy research directorate, strategic policy and research branch

A 10-year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (Canadian Occupational Projection System 2009 Reference Projection)

The Labour Force of the Future and Imbalances between Job Demand and Worker Supply

Policy Research Directorate, Strategic Policy and Research Branch

2

Overview

Presentation on Labour Demand: Key Conclusions Labour Supply

– Labour Force– School Leavers– Immigration

Imbalances– by Broad Skill Level– by Occupation– Mismatch between Field of Study and Occupation

3

Presentation on Labour Demand:

4Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2009).* Other Replacement Demand Includes Deaths and Emigration

Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand, 1996-2018

Retirements will account for most of the job openings

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Expansion DemandRetirementsOther Replacement Demand*

Projection

5

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Management University College High School On-the-jobTraining

Expansion Demand

Replacement Demand (Retirements)

Replacement Demand (Deaths andEmigration)

11.2%

22.7%

32.9%

25.6%

7.7%

2 out of 3 job openings in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management

Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2009).

Two-thirds of all job openings will be in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management occupations

Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, (2009-2018)

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

6

Labour Supply

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

Labour Force Changes, 000s (Left Axis) Annual Growth, % (Right Axis)

(1999-2008): 1.7% average growth


Reference Scenario 2009

Labour force growth is projected to slow over the next decadeGrowth of Labour Force 15+ (Non-Student), 1999-2018

Sources: Statistics Canada and Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2009).

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

(%)

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Labour Force Changes, 000s (Left Axis) Annual Growth, % (Right Axis)



Main difference between Reference 2008 and 2009

Reference Scenario 2008

Labour force growth is projected to slow over the next decadeGrowth of Labour Force 15+ (Non-Student), 1999-2017


Th

ou

sa

nd

s

(%)

9

Population 15+ (Non-student): Annual Growth Rate, 1999-2018

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Population Growth Rate (%)

Average (%)Forecast

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour MarketPopulation growth will be somewhat slower


Average growth rate over 1999-2008: 1.40% Average growth rate over 2009-2018: 1.17%

10

Labour force participation rates by age group are projected to increase further

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Labour Force Participation Rates for Age Groups 25-54 and 55-64, 1990-2018

(%) Forecast

55-64

25-54


11

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Share of Age Group 55+ in Total Population (Non-Student), 1990-2018

Forecast

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market Nevertheless, rapid increases in the share of 55+ population will pull down the aggregate participation rate


12

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Males

Total

Females

Labour Force Participation Rate, Total and by Gender (15+, Non-Student), 1976-2018

(%)Forecast

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market


Due to population aging, the aggregate labour force participation rate will start to decline in the next few years

13

Employment

Replacement Demand:

- Retirements- Emigrants - Deaths

Demographic and Macroeconomic Projections

Future Labour Market Imbalances by Occupation

Labour demand versus labour supply by occupation

Job Seekers:- School leavers- Immigrants- Net reentrants

Labour Force

Future Labour Market Imbalances by Broad Skill Level

Change in employment versus change in labour force by broad skill level

Expansion Demand

Net Mobility

Labour Demand Labour Supply

outflows inflows intra-flows

Projection Models - Structure

14

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Th

ou

sand

s

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500(%) Babyboom: Born between 1947 and 1966

Echoboom: Born from late 70's to late 80's

2009-2018

Population 15-29 (right axis)

Share of population 15-29 (left axis)

Youth population (15-29) will increase in the next decade, thus more youth are expected to enter the labour market

Population 15-29 in ‘000s and as a Share of Total Population: 1971-2018


1999-2008Average youth population: 6.77M

Average youth population: 6.49M

15

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%Projection

Ba. and First professional (Left Axis)

Master’s (Left Axis)

PhD (Right Axis)

College (left Axis)

Most youth entering the labour market will come from PSE programs as the enrolment rate will trend up


Enrolment Rates in University Programs as a Percentage of Source Population, 1991-2018

16

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

('000s)

The recession is expected to have a positive impact on enrolments in PSE programsFirst-Year Enrolments in Postsecondary Education: Impact of Recession

Projection Colleges: Recession

Colleges: No Recession

University: Recession

University: No Recession


Double cohort

Recession

17

105

125

145

165

185

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

('000s)

Students who enrolled during the recession will enter the labour market during the economic recoverySchool Leavers from Postsecondary Education: Impact of Recession

Projection College_Recession

College_No Recession

University_Recession

University_No Recession


Recession

18

The number of school leavers with less than high school is projected to decline by a third over the next 10 years

School Leavers with Less than High School Education, 1990-2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Les

s th

an H

igh

Sch

oo

l, '0

00s

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Projection

Double cohort

Population 14-18

Reference 2009


Po

pu

lation

14-18,

‘000s

19Sources: Statistics Canada and Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2009)

The high school dropout rate is also projected to resume a downward trend

High School Dropouts, 1975-2018

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Dro

po

ut

Rat

e

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Hig

h S

cho

ol D

rop

ou

ts, '000s

Dropouts (Right Axis)

Dropout Rates (Left Axis) Projection

20

The number of school leavers with a high school degree is projected to increase marginally over the next ten yearsSchool Leavers with a High School Degree Only, 1990-2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Sch

ool L

eave

rs w

ith a

Hig

h S

choo

l Deg

ree,

'000

s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500Projection

Population 18-24

Reference 2009


Double cohortDouble cohort

Po

pu

lation

18-24, ‘00

0s

21

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Sch

oo

l Lea

vers

fro

m C

olle

ge

Pro

gra

ms,

'000

s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

The number of school leavers with a college degree is projected to increase by 15% over the next ten years

School Leavers with a College Degree, 1990-2018


Projection

Reference 2009

Population 18-24

Double cohort

Po

pu

lation

18-24, ‘00

0s

22

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017Sch

oo

l Lea

vers

fro

m U

niv

ersi

ty P

rog

ram

s, '0

00s

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

The number of school leavers with a university degree is projected to increase by 15% over the next ten years

School Leavers with a University Degree, 1990-2018


Projection

Reference 2009

Population 20-29

Double cohort

Po

pu

lation

20-29, ‘00

0s

23

The share of school leavers with a postsecondary education will increase over the next ten years

School Leavers by Education Level, 1999-2008 and 2009-2018

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000Less than High School High School or Some PSE College University

1999-2008 2009-2018


33.3% 31.6%

66.7%

69.4%

24

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

55-64 years old 25-29 years old(%)

Gap in 1990: 15.8%

Gap in 2008: 9.8%Gap in

2018: 8.1%

Projection

Share of the Labour Force (Non-Student) with Postsecondary Education by Age Group, 1990-2018


The younger cohorts entering the labour market are more educated than the older ones but the gap is narrowing

25

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Share of Labour Force (25+, Non-Student) with a Postsecondary Education, 1990-2018

Projection



As a result, the level of educational attainment of Canada’s labour force will continue to rise, but at a slower pace

26


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Immigration

School Leavers

Immigration will play a smaller role than school leavers as a source of new job seekers

Projection


Sources of New Job Seekers: School Leavers and Immigration (15+, Non-Student) 1997-2018

27

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Less than High School High School or Some PSE College University

2001 2006

34.7%

65.3%

26.3%

73.7%

An increasing share of new immigrants in the labour force have postsecondary education

Recent Immigrants (last 5 years) by Education Level, 2001 and 2006

Sources: Statistics Canada, Census 2001 and 2006.

28

The match between the level of education and the skill level usually required by employers is not perfect

22.7%14.3%

6.2%3.2%

39.4%

37.7%

31.1%

16.2%

31.4%

35.3%

46.6%

23.3%

50.6%

10.7% 5.9%1.6% 4.9%6.8%5.4%6.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

University College High school Less than High school

ManagementOccupations usually requiring university educationOccupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship trainingOccupations usually requiring high schoolOccupations usually requiring only on-the-job training

Proportion of the Labour Force with a Given Level of Education by Skill Level, Amongst Population 25-29, 2008


29

Management University College High School On-the-job Training-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Job

See

kers

(in

'000

s)

Other

Immigrants

School Leavers


Over six in ten job seekers will offer their services in high-skill occupations over the next ten years

Job Seekers by Skill Level, 2009-2018

10.9%

21.5%

29.7% 30.0%

7.9%

30

Imbalances

31

There is limited evidence of imbalances between demand and supply by broad skill level in recent decades

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

ManagementOccupation usually requiring university educationOccupation usually requiring college education or apprenticeship trainingOccupation usually requiring high school educationOccupation requiring only on-the-job training

%

Relative Unemployment Rates (left chart) and Relative Wages (right chart) by Skill Level

Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

ManagementOccupation usually requiring university educationOccupation usually requiring college education or apprenticeship trainingOccupation usually requiring high school educationOccupation requiring only on-the-job training

%

32


10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market Small gaps between demand and supply by skill level over the medium term but recession leads to excess supply conditions in the short runJob Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level, as a Percentage of 2008 Employment, Outlook for the Next Two Years (2009-2010) and Ten Years (2009-2018)

2009-2010

2009-2018

Projection Periods

Management

Occupations Usually Requiring College or

Apprenticeship

Job Openings in Excess of Job Seekers

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0J ob Seekers (%)

Jo

b O

pe

nin

gs (

%)

Occupations Usually Requiring On-the-Job Training

Occupations Usually Requiring University

Occupations Usually Requiring High School

Management

Occupations Usually Requiring College or

Apprenticeship

Job Openings in Excess of Job Seekers

Job Seekers in Excess of Job Openings

33

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market However, in the medium term, several occupations will be facing shortage or surplus conditions

Job Seekers and Job Openings by Occupation (3-digit), as % of 2008 Employment, Ex-Job Seekers and Job Openings by Occupation (3-digit), as % of 2008 Employment, Ex-Post ScenarioPost Scenario


Excess supply

Excess demand In balance

High Skill

Low Skill

Excess Supply

Excess Demand

Balance

NOC 945 NOC 761

NOC 212

NOC 031

NOC 315

CNP 311

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Job

Op

enin

gs (

%)

0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9

Job Seekers (%)

34

An increasing share of the labour force with PSE will fill very low-skilled jobs

35.8%27.7% 23.0%

39.3%42.1%

41.8%

21.0%23.2%

26.4%

8.7%7.0%3.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 2008 2018

Less than High school High school College University

Proportion of the Labour Force by Level of Education in Occupations Requiring On-the-Job Training, 1998, 2008 and 2018


35

On-the-job TrainingHigh SchoolCollegeUniversityManagement-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Job

See

kers

(in

'000

s)

OtherImmigrantsSchool Leavers

Ex-Post Ex-Ante Ex-Post Ex-Ante Ex-Ante Ex-Ante Ex-AnteEx-Post Ex-Post Ex-Post

10.9%

21.5%

29.7% 30.0%

7.9%

9.6%

30.2%

33.0%

22.9%

4.4%


More supply in high-skilled occupations when school leavers look for jobs related to their fields of study

Job Seekers by Skill Level, 2009-2018

36

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market In general, imbalances become more pronounced when school leavers look for jobs in occupations more related to their fields of study

Job Seekers and Job Openings by Occupation (3-digit), as % of 2008 Employment, Job Seekers and Job Openings by Occupation (3-digit), as % of 2008 Employment, Ex-Ante Scenario Ex-Ante Scenario


Excess Demand

Balance

Excess Supply

High SkillLow Skill

NOC 031

NOC 311

NOC 315

NOC 212

NOC 945 NOC 761

-2

-1.5

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Job

Op

enin

gs

(%)

-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11

Job Seekers (%)

Ex-Post

Excess Demand

Excess Supply

Balance

NOC 212

NOC 315

High Skill

Low Skill

-2

-1.5

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Job

Op

en

ing

s (%

)

-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11

Job Seekers(%)

Ex-Ante

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Job Openings Job Seekers(Exante)

Job Seekers(Expost)

Th

ou

sa

nd

sThe case of nurse supervisors and registered nurses

Job Openings and Job Seekers over 2009-2018 Under Two Scenarios for School Leavers – Nurse Supervisors and Registered Nurses

Immigration

School leavers

Mobility

Others

Others

Mobility

Immigration

School leavers

EmigrationDeaths

Retirements

Expansion Demand


38

The case of life science professionals

0

5

10

15

20

25

Job Openings Job Seekers (Exante) Job Seekers (Expost)

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Immigration

Expansion demand

Others

Others

Immigration

School leavers

Retirements

DeathsEmigration

School leavers

Job Openings and Job Seekers over 2009-2018 Under Two Scenarios for School Leavers – Life Science Professionals


Excess Supply

Ex post: -900

Ex ante: -9,400

39

11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99

BUS, FINBUS, FIN

& ADMIN& ADMIN

NATUR & NATUR & APPLIEDAPPLIED

SCIENCESCIENCEHEALTHHEALTH

SOCIALSOCIAL

SCI, EDU,SCI, EDU,

GOV’T SERV GOV’T SERV & RELIGION& RELIGION

ART,ART,

CULTU, CULTU, RECR & RECR & SPORTSPORT

SALES & SALES & SERVSERV

TRADES, TRADES, TRANSP TRANSP

AND EQUIAND EQUI

PRIMARY PRIMARY INDUINDU

PROCESS PROCESS MANUMANU

& UTIL& UTIL

MANAG.MANAG. Senior Management N010

LEVEL ALEVEL Auniversityuniversity

11 - Prof in Business & Finance

21 - Prof in 21 - Prof in Natural / Natural / Applied Applied SciencesSciences

31 - Prof in Health

41 - Prof in Social 41 - Prof in Social Sci / Edu / Gov't Sci / Edu / Gov't Serv / ReligionServ / Religion

51 - Prof in 51 - Prof in Art & CultureArt & Culture

LEVEL BLEVEL Bcollege orcollege or

apprenticapprentic

12 - Skilled Admin & Business

22 - Techl 22 - Techl Occ's Occ's Related to Related to Natural / Natural / Applied Applied SciencesSciences

32 - Tech / 32 - Tech / Skilled Skilled Occs in Occs in HealthHealth

42 - Paraprof 42 - Paraprof Occ's in Law / Occ's in Law / Social Services / Social Services / Education / Education / ReligionReligion

52 - Tech / 52 - Tech / Skilled Occ's Skilled Occ's in Art / in Art / Culture / Recr Culture / Recr / Sport/ Sport

62 - Skilled Sales & Service Occs

72-73 -72-73 -Trades & Trades & Skilled Skilled Transp & Transp & Equip Equip OperatorsOperators

82 - Skilled Occ's in Primary Industry

92 - Process / Manu / Utilities Supervisors & Skilled Operators

LEVEL CLEVEL Chigh high school school

14 - Clerical Occs

34 - Assisting Occ's in Support of Health Services

64 - Intermediate Sales & Service Occ’s

74 - Intermediate Occ's in Transp / Equip Operation / Install / Maintenanc

84 - Intermed Occ's in Primary Industry

94-95 - Process & Manu Machine Operators & Assemble

LEVEL DLEVEL Don-the-on-the-job job trainingtraining

66 - Elemental Sales & Service Occ’s

76 - Trades Helpers, Construction Labourers & Related Occ's

86 - Primary Industry Labourers

96 - Labourer in Process, Manu & Utilities

green: Similar actual and potential supply green: Similar actual and potential supply yellow: Small potential supply yellow: Small potential supply red: Large potential supplyred: Large potential supply

Differences/Gaps Between Actual and Potential Supply, 2009-18


40

Projected shortage conditions over the next 10 years are found mostly in high-skilled occupations

Skill Types Occupations Projected to Face EXCESS DEMAND Conditions

Business, Finance, Administration

Human Resources and Business Service Professionals (NOC 112)

Natural and Applied Sciences

Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems (NOC 021); Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety (NOC 2263); Construction Inspectors (NOC 2264)

Health

Manager in Health, Education, Social and Community Services (NOC 031) ; Physicians, dentists and veterinarians (NOC 311); Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals (NOC 312); Pharmacists (NOC 3131); Nurse supervisors and registered nurses (NOC 315); Medical Laboratory Technicians (NOC 3212); Medical radiation technologists (NOC 3215); Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists (NOC 3222)

Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion

Manager in Public Administration (NOC 041)

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations

Managers in Construction and Transportation (NOC 071);Facility operation and maintenance managers (NOC 072); Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers such as electrical trades and mechanic trades (NOC 721); Industrial electricians (NOC 7242); Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors (NOC 7315)

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities

Aircraft Assemblers and Aircraft Assembly Inspectors (NOC 9481)


41Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2009).

In those occupations that will be facing shortage conditions, increasing supply to meet demand pose significant challenges

Excess Job Openings Versus New Labour Market Entrants from the School System and Immigration for Selected Non-Management Occupations, 2009-2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Administrative Support Clerks

Other Tech. Occ's in Health (Except Dental)

Optometrists / Chiropractors / Other Health Professions

Administrative & Regulatory Occ's

College & Other Voc. Instructors

Psychologists / Social Workers / Clergy

Contractors & Supervisors, Trades & Related

Supervisors, Mining / Oil / Gas

Physicians / Dentists / Veterinarians

Nurse Supervisors & Registered Nurses

School Leavers Immigration Excess Job Openings

42

Projected surplus conditions over the next 10 years are found mostly in low-skilled occupations

Skill Types Occupations Projected to Face EXCESS SUPPLY Conditions

Trades, Transport and Equipment

Tool and Die Makers (NOC 7232).

Occupations Unique to Primary Industry

Supervisors, Logging and Forestry (NOC 821); Logging Machinery Operators (NOC 8241); Fishing Vessel Skippers and Fishermen/women (NOC 8262); Nursery and Greenhouse Workers (NOC 8432).

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities

Machine Operators and Related Workers in Pulp and Paper Production and Wood Processing (NOC 943); Machine Operators and Related Workers in Fabric, Fur and Leather Products Manufacturing (NOC 945); Motor Vehicle Assemblers, Inspectors and Testers (NOC 948); Machining, Metalworking, Woodworking and Related Machine Operators (NOC 951); Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities (NOC 961).


43

Labour force growth will slow mostly due to population ageing;

The main source of supply will remain the school leavers who will be positively impacted by:

– The increase in youth population;– Enrolment rates on the rise.

New immigrants will only represent a small share of job seekers.

Only small imbalances will occur by broad skill level.

However, several occupations, will face excess demand (mostly high-skilled) or excess supply (mostly low-skilled);

– A better match between supply and demand could be achieved by:• Better labour market information • Better skills recognition for immigrants • A more responsive postsecondary system

10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market Key messages: Over the next ten years…

policy research directorate, strategic policy and research branch

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