Policy Issues Facing the Food, Agriculture and Rural Sectors

and Implications for Agricultural Statistics

Mary Bohman and Mary Ahearn

Economic Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture

ISI Satellite Meeting on Agricultural Statistics

Maputo, Mozambique

August 13-14, 2009

Overview

• Issues driving demand for agricultural statistics

• Questions lie at the intersection of agriculture, resources, and people

• Examples– Measuring well-being and off-farm income– Policy outcomes and gender– Resources and environment and links to land

• Conclusions

Food, agriculture, & rural issues high on agenda

• Global food crisis

• Climate change and climate policy

• Bioenergy production

• Water quantity and water quality

• Millennium Development Goals

Farm and rural prosperity key to MDGs

• Poverty concentrated in rural areas

• Agriculture serves as a major source of employment

• Agriculture is dominant user of natural resources: land and water

Global consensus on importance of agriculture

• Investment by countries and international organizations had fallen– Concern about benefits given shrinking role in

economy with growth

• Broad consensus that prosperity in agriculture supports overall growth – Research finds that investment in rural and agriculture

lead to higher rates of overall economic growth

Maputo Declaration in 2003

• Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security in Africa

• Includes “commitment to the allocation of at least 10 percent of national budgetary resources to agriculture and rural development policy implementation within five years”

• In 2009, African Union meeting of experts emphasized importance of productivity and resilience in agricultural systems

Agricultural statistics key to making smart investments and

tracking progress• What should be the mix of investments in

agriculture and other rural activities?• What types of investments best capitalize on

differences by gender in outcomes?• How do subsidies for fertilizer affect markets

and the environment?• What are the consequences of investments

in alternative energy, including biofuels?• How do future changes in climate affect the

optimal choice of research investments?

Understanding decision-making and behavioral adjustments

• Economic models provide guidance– Development economists have made important

contributions which recognize the close links (nonseparability) of production and household consumption choices

– Micro-level data are required for analysis with these models

• Micro-level data strengthens aggregate statistics– Availability of micro-data changed picture of

farm vs national incomes

Questions lie at the intersection of agriculture, resources, and people

NONFARM HOUSEHOLDS

Land

Rural communities

Water

CropsLivestock

Climate

Energy

FARM HOUSEHOLDS

FARM BUSINESSES

LaborBiodiversity

Many farm households rely on off-farm income and strong rural

economies• The share of farm

operators engaged in off-farm work varies across countries

Total income and off-farm income vary within countries

• US farm household income levels and sources vary with farm size

• Poverty linked to human capital, assets, and off-farm job availability

Role of Gender• Research has shown that in many

countries consideration of gender is critical

• Giving women more power can lead to beneficial outcomes:– Increasing yields

– Improved investments in health and nutrition

– Enhanced ability to manage income shocks

• Agricultural statistics need to consider how to best acquire and analyze data that supports analysis of women’s roles

Importance of agricultural employment varies across countries, as does the role of

women

Agriculture part of global land use

• Farmer and rancher decisions about land use key to GHG emissions

• Potential for participation in mitigation represents a complex decision

• Link land to farm to HH?

Panel data: “the holy grail”

• Decisions about investments and savings critical to productivity growth

• Inform questions policies to address adverse weather and other shocks

Conclusions• Role of agricultural statistics to support policy

decisions requires understanding how:– resources, production, returns, and household income

are distributed among the population– farm and rural households make choices and respond

to change

• Importance of working with data users