Policy Implications Policy Implications of the globalization of the globalization

of scienceof science

Dr. Caroline S. WagnerDr. Caroline S. Wagner

Milton & Roslyn Wolf Chair in International AffairsMilton & Roslyn Wolf Chair in International Affairs

Director, Battelle Center for Science & Technology Director, Battelle Center for Science & Technology PolicyPolicy

John Glenn School of Public AffairsJohn Glenn School of Public Affairs

The Ohio State UniversityThe Ohio State University

October 2012October 2012

Wise words…Wise words…

• ““One of the diseases of this age is the One of the diseases of this age is the multiplicity of knowledge!” multiplicity of knowledge!”

• ““they [books] doth so overcharge the world they [books] doth so overcharge the world that it is not able to digest the that it is not able to digest the abundance of idle matter that is every day abundance of idle matter that is every day hatched and brought forth into the world.” hatched and brought forth into the world.”

• Barnaby RichBarnaby Rich

• 16131613

• Pace of creation has always overwhelmed Pace of creation has always overwhelmed scientistsscientists

Four PointsFour Points

• Pace of creation has always overwhelmed Pace of creation has always overwhelmed scientistsscientists

• Challenge is the scale and scope (S&S) of Challenge is the scale and scope (S&S) of information information • A proliferation of sourcesA proliferation of sources

• S&S mandates S&S mandates specializationspecialization which compels which compels collaborationcollaboration

• Collaboration creates its own dynamic Collaboration creates its own dynamic • The system operates by very different rulesThe system operates by very different rules

• Researchers submitting to journals: 1.5 million in 2000

• Science-related websites: 25 million in 2000, 1.5 billion in 2010

• Scholarly articles (All) 1 million in 1985, 1.5 million+ in 2010

• Patents filed, U.S. PTO: 345,732 in 2001, 520,277 in 2010.

• 667 million responses to “science” and “blog”

Pace of Change….

• Internet users: 16 million 1995, 1 billion in 2005

• Open access journals: 1387 in 1995, 5885 in 2005

• Books published: 691,147 in 1995, 1,884,028 in 2005

• Citations (within journal articles) outpaced the number of articles

• Scientific papers in SCIE: 590,000 in 1990, 779,000 in 2000.

1.5

1

0.5

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

2007 ****2006 ***1999 **1985 *Predicted research

output

Annual Global Research Output 1726-2009

Research Output in Numbers of Articles, 1726-2009Source: Jinha, A. (2010). Article 50 million: An estimate of the number of scholarly articles in existence. Learned Publishing, 32(3), 258-263.

Saturation Limit

Exponential Growth with Saturation

Pure Exponential Growth

Present State?

DATE

SIZE

circa 30 yrs.

Central Form of the Logistic Curve

D. De Solla Price, Science Since Babylon, New Haven: Yale University Press

Saturation Limit

Exponential Growth with Saturation

Pure Exponential Growth

Present State?

DATE

SIZE

circa 30 yrs.

Central Form of the Logistic Curve

D. De Solla Price, Science Since Babylon, New Haven: Yale University Press

We found that science is indeed growing along the exponential curve,not according to Price’s curve

Not saturation but a phase shift

M. Mabe (2002) The growth and number of journals, Serials, 16(2), 191-197.

Active refereed scholarly/academic journal title growth since 1665 (log scale)

New journal often signals a new field or splintering of existing field

Vastly More Than Vastly More Than Is CountedIs Counted

• Formal counts Formal counts understate understate outputoutput

• Web of Science holds 3 percent of all Web of Science holds 3 percent of all outputoutput• ~97 % of all scientific publications are ~97 % of all scientific publications are not indexednot indexed

• Even if only 80 percent, Even if only 80 percent, it is a lot of it is a lot of unseen publicationsunseen publications

• Add to arxiv, RePec, Researchgate, Add to arxiv, RePec, Researchgate, Mendeley, VIVOMendeley, VIVO• Back to ‘splintering of sources’ Back to ‘splintering of sources’

Publication Patterns Publication Patterns in BRICsin BRICs

60 percent overlap

Chemistry

Growth of International Collaboration in Science, 1990-2005

Dynamics of Dynamics of Abundance-1Abundance-1

11 OpennessOpenness11 Think “Wikileaks,” medical information, Think “Wikileaks,” medical information,

ancestryancestry

22 Disciplinary convergenceDisciplinary convergence11 ““Consilience” of E.O. WilsonConsilience” of E.O. Wilson

33 Multiple sources of informationMultiple sources of information11 Walter Cronkite to Newser.com Walter Cronkite to Newser.com

Dynamics of Dynamics of abundance-2abundance-2

• Emergent, self-organizationEmergent, self-organization

• NetworkingNetworking

• ReciprocityReciprocity

• PricesPrices

• IncentivesIncentives

• Object-focused researchObject-focused research

A Vision for us…A Vision for us…

…….Maybe the thoughts we generate today and .Maybe the thoughts we generate today and flick around from mind to mind...are the flick around from mind to mind...are the primitive precursors of more complicated, primitive precursors of more complicated, polymerized structures that will come polymerized structures that will come later, analogous to the prokaryotic cells later, analogous to the prokaryotic cells that drifted through shallow pools in the that drifted through shallow pools in the early days of biological evolution. early days of biological evolution. Later, when the time is right, there may Later, when the time is right, there may be fusion and symbiosis among the bits, be fusion and symbiosis among the bits, and then we will see eukaryotic thought, and then we will see eukaryotic thought, metazoans of thought, huge interliving metazoans of thought, huge interliving coral shoals of thought.coral shoals of thought.

Lewis Thomas, 1968Lewis Thomas, 1968