policy exchange

8/14/2019 Policy eXchange

1/11


2/11

5) On average there are 70 recorded assaults on police officers every day. [Grant Shapps, Policeon the beat, citing Parliamentary Written Answers]

6) Many jails have more prisoners than their target limit, but meet a level considered safe.According to this definition, the prison system has been overcrowded every year since 1994.

Prisons are so overcrowded that from 2007, some prisoners have been held in police custody

suites. [Home Office, Digest 4: Information on the Criminal Justice System in England and Wales,

1999, London: Home Office]

7) 48% of prisoners are at or below the reading level expected for an eleven year old. 65% arebelow the level in numeracy and 82% in writing. [Social Exclusion Unit, 2002, Reducing Re-

offending by ex-prisoners, London: Social Exclusion Unit]

8) The most likely person to be carrying a knife is a boy aged between 14 and 19. [Philips, A. andChamberlain, V. MORI Youth Survey 2006, London; Youth Justice Board for England and Wales,

2006; and OCJS]

9) Drug and alcohol abuse costs society around 39 billion per year.[www.drugscope.org.uk/newsandevents/currentnewspages/BBC-efficacy_drug_ttmt.htm]

10)One in nine people released from prison with an electronic tag (the home detention curfew)reoffend while tagged. [Parliamentary Written Answer, 16 April 2007]

11)65% of those released from prison have been reconvicted within two years. The real rate ofreoffending which goes unrecorded is far higher. [Re-Offending by Adults: Results from the 2004

cohort, Home Office, 2007/8 Performance, The MoJ has recently decided to change their time-

frame for re-offending from two years to one, this will significantly reduce the official rate of re-

offending.]

12)The estimated cost of re-offending is 13 billion a year. [Offender Case Management Caseloadstatistics 2006, Ministry of Justice, December 2007]

13)When compared to non-offenders, offenders are thirteen times as likely to have been in care asa child, thirteen times as likely to be unemployed, and two and a half times as likely to have had

a family member convicted of a criminal offence.[Working with Employers to Reduce Re-

Offending, National Offender Management Service, May 2007]

14)35% of people do not feel safe outside after dark. Among people living in local authority flats thefigure rises to over 50%. 18% of people in local authority flats dont even feel safe in their own

home. [English House Condition Survey, as reported in the Hills Report 2007, p.96]


3/11


4/11

J, Routes onto Incapacity Benefit: Findings from a follow-up Survey of Recent Claimants,

Research Report no 516, Department for Work and Pensions, 2008]

24) There are now 783,000 16-24 year old NEETs (young people not in employment, education, ortraining) a rise of 22 per cent among 16-18 year-olds, and 16 per cent amongst 19-24 year-olds

since 1997. [Hansard, 9 June 2008, Col. 39WA]

25)Of all post-16 jobs created between 1997 and 2007, 82% went to (or were created by)immigrants. [Statistics Commission, December 2008]

(b) Public spending

26)Public spending in the UK is heading above the European average for the first time in ageneration. Public spending in the UK has risen from 39.1% of GDP in the period 1997-2001 to

45.8% today. The European Commission forecasts that it will rise to 48.2% in 2010. [European

Economy, November 2008, Page 158]

27)A CEBR analysis ofofficial figures has shown 10 areas where more than 40% of the workforce isemployed in the public sector. Topping the league is Castle Morpeth, Northumberland, where

the state provides 57% of jobs. [CEBR quoted in the Sunday Times, 30 November 2008]

(c) Debt

28)In 1997 UK personal debt was 61% and UK government debt was 43% of GDP. This meant totaldebt per person of 14,200. By analogy, the notional payback date for personal debt was 23 rd

August. In 2008: UK personal debt is 104% of GDP and UK government debt is 43.5% of GDP.

This is a total debt per person of 35,700. This rises to 67,400 per person if bank debts (59% of

GDP) and the current public sector pensions liability (estimated to be 76% of GDP, or 1.071trn)

are included. The notional payback date for personal debt is 14th January of the next year.

[Sources: Credit Action (personal debt); notional payback analogy from Grant Thornton;


5/11


6/11

The direct costs of family breakdown cost each of the UK's 26.2 million tax payers an average of

11 per week. [The Family Matters Institute, the cost of family breakdown, 2007]

40)Nearly one in two cohabiting parents split up before their childs 5th birthday, compared to onein twelve married parents. [Breakdown Britain, Centre for Social Justice, July 2007]

41)For a married couple with one earner and children, the marginal effective tax rate can be 90%,the 3rd highest in any OECD country. [OECD tax Benefits model, Chart 3.A.1.2]

42)The UK has the highest teenage pregnancy rate in Europe. Up to 42 in every 1,000 girls under 18became pregnant in the 12 months to September 2007 compared to 40.9 in 2006. The UKs

teen pregnancy rate is three times higher than in France, and roughly five times higher than

Sweden Italy or the Netherlands. [National Statistics, December 2008 and UNICEF-IRC League

Table of Teenage Births 2001]

43)Less than 4% of owner-occupiers and 7% of private renters say that their area has a seriousdrugs problem, but more than 22% of social tenants in estates with blocks of flats report this as

a salient issue. [Hills J, The Future Roles of Social Housing in England, Chartered Institute of

Housing, 2007, fig 9.7b, p95]

EDUCATION

44)Over 40% of the boys and almost 30% of the girls (around 200,000 children in total) who leftprimary school in 2008 cannot read and write to minimum standards. [DCSF: National

Curriculum Assessments at Key Stage 2 in England, 2008 (Provisional)]

45)In 2007-8 180,000 14 year olds about to start their GCSEs failed to achieve minimum standardsin either reading or writing in their SATS. [DCSF: National Curriculum Assessments at Key Stage 3

in England, 2008 (Provisional)]

46)In 2006-7 in the richest 10% of neighbourhoods, 57.4% of pupils gained five or more GCSEs atgrades A* to C including Maths and English. In the poorest 10% of neighbourhoods only 33.3%

did. This figure falls to 16% for those eligible for free school meals. [DCSF Statistical first release

9 January 2008 and The Times Higher April 2008]

47)Children on free school meals are ten times less likely than average to get three As at A-level.14.3% of pupils at secondary school are eligible for FSM, but only 1.4% of those achieving three

As were on FSM. [Written Answer, 26 November 2008]

48)In 2006-7, 15% of eligible pupils did not achieve 5 GCSEs at any grade. [Written Answer, 8 May2008]

49)On arriving at school approximately 50% of children and young people in some socio-economically disadvantaged populations have speech and language skills that are significantly

lower than those of other children of the same age. [Bercow Review, p.13 -]


7/11

50)Of the 638 National Challenge secondary schools indentified as failing by the government,85% have above average numbers of pupils on Free School Meals. [BBC News 10

thJune 2008]

51)Undergraduates consider social work to be the profession most similar to teaching. [YouGov Poll 9th-14th April 2008, quoted in the Policy Exchange report More Good Teachers]

52)Because of the shortage of Maths teachers, in 2005-6, more than one in six (17%) trainee Mathsteachers had achieved only a third or pass in their first degree. [TDA performance profile 2007]

53)200 new schools were supposed to have been completed under the 45 billion Building Schoolsfor the Future programme by the end of 2008 but just 37 have been. [Written Answer, 6

October 2008]

54)57% of parents would send their children to an independent school if they could afford it. [MORIresearch for the Independent Schools Council]

55)In some relatively poor London boroughs large numbers of pupils are sent outside the statesystem because parents are unhappy with the quality of states schools. 19% of pupils in

Hackney and 25% in Camden are educated outside the state sector. [DCSF, Statistical First

Release 27 November 2007]

56)From 1996 to 2007, the average grade achieved by GCSE candidates of the same ability rose byalmost two-thirds of a grade. [Coe R & Tymms P, An academic view: summary of research on

changes in educational standards in the UK, Education Briefing Book, Institute of Directors,

London 2008, p.97]

57)There are 9,289 different courses listed on Ofquals National Database for AccreditedQualifications. 194 of them are in Hospitality and Catering. [National Database for Accredited

Qualifications]

58)Lack of interest in the Train-to-Gain adult skills programme led to an underspend of 130million in 2007-8 (on a 461 million budget). Nevertheless the budget is due to increase to 657

million in 2008-9 and 1.02 billion by 2010-11. [DCSF Annual Report 2007, p. 107; DIUS Annual

Report 2008, p. 113]

UNIVERSITIES

59)After more than a decade of intense effort by universities, it remains the case that you are muchmore likely to get a degree if you are middle class. Only 10 per cent of those from the poorest

fifth of families have acquired a degree by the age of 23, compared with 44 per cent from the

richest fifth. [Findings of National Council for Educational Excellence reported in Times Higher,

April 24 2008]

60)For men the participation rate is actually going downwards. It is currently 10 percentage pointsbelow that for women. Since 1992, women have been in the majority at university. Last year,

the proportion of young men studying for a degree fell from 37% in 1999 to 35%, while the


8/11

figure rose from 41% in 1999 to 45% for women. [National Audit Office report, Widening

Participation in Higher Education, June 2008]

61)Every year 60,000 students who were in the top fifth of their class across all English stateschools at age 11, 14 or 16 fail to reach university. [Institute of Education research, reported in

The Guardian, June 2008]

62)Almost one in ten young, full-time, first degree students from low-participation neighbourhoodsstarting in 2004-05 dropped out of their higher education course after the first year. This means

that in total around 28,000 full-time and 87,000 part-time undergraduates who commenced

their studies in 2004-05 were no longer in higher education in 2005-06. [Higher Education

Statistics Agency, performance indicator table T3b, 2004-05.]

63)Part-time students now make up 40 per cent of the student population. They are the most likelyto drop out. In 2004-05 almost one quarter (23%) of part-time students left university after their

first year. [National Audit Office Report July 2007, Staying the course: the retention of students

in higher education]

64)As many as 12,000 students entering higher education in 2006-07 on full state support did notapply for a bursary although many were likely to have met the necessary criteria, because the

system was too complicated to understand. [National Audit Office report, Widening

Participation in Higher Education June 2008]

65)A decade ago only 48% of students were awarded firsts or 2.1s, now 60% achieve them. [HigherEducation Statistics Agency, first statistical release January 2008]

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT

66)Since the signing of the Kyoto Agreement in 1997, official UK Greenhouse gas emissions haverisen - from 570.6 MtCO2 in 1997 to 591.2 MtCO2 in 2005. [Defra, Environment Statistics, 2008]67)On a consumption basis (instead of a production basis, which is reduced by industry shifting to

developing countries) UK emissions have risen 19% between 1990 and 2003 - to approximately

1100 MtCO2. [ Helm D, Smale R and Phillips J, Too Good to be True? The UKs Climate Change

Record, 2007]

68)Global emissions rose by 25% between 1990 and 2004. [Green Alliance, The New Politics ofClimate Change, 2008]

69)52 (high level) environmental targets (38% of them) set since 1997 will not be met or areunlikely to be. There have been at least 7 major energy policy realignments since 1997, yet a

target of 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 is unlikely to be met. [Policy Exchange -

Green Dreams a decade of missed targets, p.3 & p.8]

70)Every year about 12 million hectares of tropical forests are logged, cleared or burnt. Destructionof forests and peatlands generates more than the entire greenhouse gas emissions from the

global transport sector or a similar amount to that emitted by the United States or China. [Policy

Exchange - The Root of the Matter, p.4, 13]


9/11


10/11

drug-busting in the Caribbean for nine months of the year because of cuts. [Defence Analytical

Services and Advice, UK Defence Statistics 2008, table 4.1]

81)The RAF has 166 fewer fixed-wing aircraft in 2008 than in 1997. [Hansard, 9 October 2007, Col.509WA; Hansard, 12 May 2008, Col. 1308WA]

82)There are major shortfalls in aircraft and helicopters. For example, only 32 per cent of theArmys Lynx fleet and 48 per cent of the RAFs Chinook fleet are currently fit for operations.

[Hansard, 21 May 2008, Col. 309WA). Only half of the RAFs Hercules C-130 fleet is fit for

operations (Hansard, 20 May 2008, Col. 180WA]

83)10.3 per cent of Army personnel are exceeding the guideline of no more than 415 days spentaway from families over a 30-month period. [Ministry of Defence, Annual Reports and Accounts

2007-8 Vol.1: Annual Performance Report, 21July 2008, Session 2007-8, HC850-I, para 308]

84)As a result of overstretch, more experienced personnel are leaving. Resignation rates for officershave increased in each of the past five years. [Defence Analytical Services and Advice, TSP5]

85)In a report in 2007, the Chief of the General Staff (Head of the Army) General Sir RichardDannatt stated that, more and more single income soldiers are now close to the UK Govt

definition of poverty. [Chief of the General Staffs Briefing Team Report 2, 2007, p.3]

86)In a recent survey, 46 per cent of those serving in the Royal Navy and 42 per cent of those in theArmy felt that they were not valued by the Services. 64 per cent of sailors and 59 per cent of

soldiers said that morale was either low or very low across the Service. [Ministry of Defence,

Armed Forces Continuous Attitude Survey 2007, July 2008, tables 21 and 15]

87)The top 19 major procurement projects are 2.5 billion over budget or 11 per cent over theirinitially approved costs. [National Audit Office, Major Projects Report 2007, 30 November 2007,Session 2007-8, HC 98-I, para 1.4]

88)Altogether, the top 19 major projects are now predicted to come into service 441 months laterthan expected. [National Audit Office, Major Projects Report 2007, 30 November 2007, para

1.10]

HEALTH

89)Data from the Office for National Statistics shows a fall in NHS productivity of 2% a year from2001 to 2005 across the UK. [National Statistics News Release, 28 January 2008.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/health0108.pdf]

90)Continuing the long-term trend in NHS spending would suggest that by 2068 spending will be inthe region of 16% to 18% of GDP double todays 90 billion and similar to current US levels of

spending. [Professor John Appleby, Chief Economist, Kings Fund writing in Public Finance, 4 July

2008]


11/11

91)29.5% of children in England are overweight or obese. [NHS Information Centre, Health Surveyfor England 2006, Latest Trends, January 2008.]

92)In 2006-07, a total of 45,085 people were admitted to hospital with acute alcohol intoxication.[NHS Information Centre, Statistics on Alcohol: England, 2008]

93)One in seven fifteen year olds in Britain is a regular smoker. [Action on Smoking and Health,Beyond Smoking Kills, October 2008, P3]

94)Up to a third of those infected with HIV in the UK - approximately 21,600 people - are unawareof their infection. [Health Protection Agency, Testing Times - HIV and other Sexually Transmitted

Infections in the United Kingdom: November 2007]

95)The number of death certificates in England and Wales that mentioned C. difficile infection rosefrom 6,480 in 2006 to 8,324 in 2007, an increase of 28 per cent. [Office for National Statistics

news release, 28 August 2008 ]

96)In the next 20 years, the number of people over 85 in England will double and the number over100 will quadruple. According to SAGA the cost of a four-year stay in a care home will rise from

112,312 to 223,476 by 2028. [Government Actuaries Department Projections database, 23

October 2007]

97)In 2004 in Great Britain, the proportion of children aged 5 to 16 with a mental disorder wasmore than twice as high among those living in areas categorised as hard pressed than those in

areas populated by wealthy achievers. [Office for National Statistics, Social Trends 2008]

98)A recent study for the Citizens Advice Bureau found that 7.4 million people have not been to anNHS dentist since April 2006 because the difficulty in finding one. [CAB, 16 January 2008]

99)The NHS could save more than 200 million a year, without affecting patient care, by GPsprescribing lower cost but equally effective medicines. [Health Select Committee Report:

Prescribing Costs in Primary Care. Dec 2007]

100) Of the 43 billion increase in investment in the five years after 2002, pay and price inflation

absorbed 43 per cent (18.9 billion). [Wanless, D., Appleby, J., Harrison, A. and Patel, D. (2007)

Our future health secured? A review of NHS funding and performance London: The Kings

Fund]

policy exchange

Documents