Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Josh WolnySecure World Foundation

George Washington University

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat 1

Terms and Concepts

• Orbital/space debris• Space situational awareness (SSA)• Space traffic management (STM)• Low-Earth orbit (LEO) ~100 km – 2000 km @ 0-90°• Medium-Earth orbit (MEO) the zone between LEO and GEO• Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) ~ 35786 km @ 0-15°• Anti-satellite weapon (ASAT)

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat 2

Goals• Characterize the orbital

environment and current SSA capabilities.

• Outline three policy areas where debris is an externality & challenge:

1. International security 2. Commercial space in LEO3. United States’ space regulatory

regime

• Note indicators for change in the status quo

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Source: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

_____ Situational Awareness

Source: flightradar24.com Source: marinetraffic.com

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat 4

Space Situational Awareness

Source: celestrak.com Source: celestrak.com

Active satellites: ~2000Fengyun 1C Debris: ~3000

5Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Space Situational Awareness (cont.)• Daily observations: 380,000 - 420,000• Data processing systems:

• SPADOC – 1980s, upgraded 1990s• CAVENet – 2000 as augment• CCIC2S – 2000 as replacement, never

delivered• JMS – 2009, combined three 2000s-era

efforts that did not deliver• Space C2• ISSA• RAIDRS

• 2019: JMS does not deliver, Air Force maintains SPADOC/CAVENet catalog

• Conjunction warning message “error bubble” ~100 km

• Resulting in hundreds of thousands of messages per year

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Source: U.S. DoD

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Orbital Challenges and Solutions?1. Internaional security

• ASAT Treaty?

2. Commercial space in LEO• “Automaic” maneuvers?

3. United States’ space regulatory regime• New rules limiing debris? Acive

removal?

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Source: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space• Space and national security

• Rockets / missiles• Reconnaissance / remote sensing• Communications• Precision navigation and timing• Geopolitical prestige

• Anti-satellite weapons• Kinetic / non-kinetic• Ground-based / co-orbital

• 2017 vote to establish a two-year GGE• Explore the parameters for a treaty

• Outcome: No report

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Source: United Nations General Assembly

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

India’s ASAT Test• Mission Shakti

• March 27, 2019• Ground-based ASAT from a modified

missile interceptor• Indian target satellite launched in January• ~280 km altitude• ~ low hundreds of pieces of debris

• Burnt Frost• February 20, 2008• Ground-based ASAT from a modified

missile interceptor• Non-functioning U.S. reconnaissance

satellite re-entering with hazardous fuel• ~240 km altitude• ~ low hundreds of pieces of debris

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Source: © Analytical Graphics Incorporated

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Starlink and the Megaconstellations

• Amazon – 3,236• Boeing – 3,016• Kepler – 142• OneWeb – 720• SpaceX – 4,425• Swarm – 157• Telesat – 117

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Source: Space Exploration Technologies

Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

United States Regulatory Agencies & Congress• Federal Communications Commission

(FCC)• Independent agency funded by fees• Radiofrequency license

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Commercial Remote Sensing and Regulatory Affairs (NOAA CRSRA)• Executive branch – Department of

Commerce• Remote sensing license

• Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST)• Executive branch – Department of

Transportation• Launch license

11Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Indicators to Watch

12Josh Wolny - Policy Challenges to Addressing the Space Debris Threat

Domain Space Situational Awareness International SecurityCommercialization of

LEO Regulation

Near-term (6 months)

Failure of JMS has pushed the Air Force to consider using commercial SSA services.

Commercial companies that launch on Indian rockets condemned the ASAT test.

Backlash to the Starlink Constellation’s albedo.

Multiple notices of proposed rulemaking from U.S. space regulators.

Long-term (1+ years)

Transition of non-warfighting SSA role to a civil government agency.

Other States are contemplating ASAT tests. Could galvanize opposition or create hazardous debris.

Increased commercial activity on orbit may fund growth of active debris removal, more private SSA, and other tech.

Congress passing legislation to authorize new agency oversight and functions.