poker session pa #2 differences
DESCRIPTION
Showing differences in EV of starting stack sizesTRANSCRIPT
Poker Session PA #2PA Leak Busting
Fundamental Principles of Poker Revisited Problem Descriptions and Potential Leaks Table Changing Short Stack vs. Normal & Deep Stack Targeting Aggro and Thinking Players
PA Leak Busting
+EV play◦Plays that yield the greatest value long term
Reciprocity*-- We win every time we:◦Make a +EV play our opponents will not / cannot make◦Make a correct fold our opponents will not / cannot make
Exploiting our skill edge◦ The greater the delta in skill between ourselves and
our opponents the greater our win rate
Fundamental Principles of Poker Revisited
Your winning sessions just aren’t big enough to offset your losing sessions◦You average < 1 Buy-in on winning sessions ◦You average > 1 Buy-in on your losing sessions
You should be averaging +1.5 Buy-ins for your winning sessions◦Winning 3, 4, even 5 Buy-ins per session should be
common and occurring on a weekly basis.
Potential Leaks: Wins vs Losses
The only way to extract money from passive players is to hit our hand
60% of the time, we are NOT going to hit our hand◦When we do, we aren’t going to be as strong as we’d like
Inflating the pot is difficult vs. passive players Their passive play inadvertently minimizes their
mistakes
Targeting bad passive players is profitable, but it will not be enough to give us a +1.5 BI winrate
Potential Leaks: Exclusively Focusing on Passive Players
Table Changing too quickly◦ Time spent at a table is an investment
We learn table and villain tendencies We have an advantage vs all players new to the table We can optimal adjust and exploit the table for max results
Valid reasons for table changing◦ There is no money on the table ◦ There is no easy mark on the table◦Skill level is too high thus table is unprofitable for you◦You spot a more profitable table
Beware the “grass looks greener” lure All tables go through “cycles”. ◦Players will leave, new fish will arrive, just give it time
Potential Leaks: Table Changing
Doubling Up and Table Changing◦ Leaving a profitable table is a serious leak◦Maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while Minimizing
our time at profitable tables
TWO SCENARIOS Table A) We double up within 45 minutes Table B) We lose one buy-in within 90 minutes If we have to play six hours, which table should we play at?
Potential Leaks: Table Changing
Ironically, players have no qualms grinding 6 hours at the same table to get unstuck 2 buy-ins but want to leave after winning a big pot and doubling up. This tendency maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while minimizing our time at profitable tables
Short Stack play limits our ability to win◦ Limits the amount of money we can win◦ Limits the amount of +EV plays in our arsenal◦ 100% links our play to hand strength
We are dealt a very limited # of strong hands We become slaves to the cards and variance
◦ Limits Frequency of hands we can see◦ Limits opportunities to engage with -EV players
Thus, limits the amount of money we win
Potential Leaks: Short Stack vs Normal and Deep Stack Play
Short Stack vs. Normal / Deep StackACTION
Short Stack (40bb)
Normal Stack (100bb)
Deep Stack (250bb)
Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs EP No Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs MP No Yes YesLimping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No YesPlaying SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesSet mining (limping) Yes Yes YesSet mining (4bb open) No Yes YesSet mining (8bb open) No No YesFloating w intent to steal No Yes YesDouble Barreling No Yes YesTriple Barreling No No YesDenying odds w turn shove in multi-way No Yes YesPot committed in Multi-way pot on turn Yes No NoRaising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes YesRaising LP w 10% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes YesRaising LP w 15% range plus flop cbet No Yes YesRaising LP w 20% range plus flop cbet No No Yes
Players involved in more pots◦More opportunity for profit
Fold Equity comes into play◦Gives us another tool in the toolkit to use to win
Employ Advanced Poker Principles
Targeting Aggro & Thinking Players
All lesser players are fish!!!
What does the Math Say? Integrating all aspects of poker into
a math model is too complicated◦We can look at each line separately ◦Set mining, Drawing, Floating, C-betting + Multi-
Barreling We can then compare Short Stack vs Normal &
Deep Stack theoretical ◦Winrates will be normalized meaning all things being
equal
Conceptualization
ACTIONShort Stack
(40bb)Normal Stack
(100bb)Deep Stack
(250bb)Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs EP No Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs MP No Yes YesLimping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No YesPlaying SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesSet mining (limping) Yes Yes YesSet mining (4bb open) No Yes YesSet mining (8bb open) No No YesFloating w intent to steal No Yes YesDouble Barreling No Yes YesTriple Barreling No No Yes
No Yes YesPot committed in Multi-way pot on turn Yes No NoRaising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes Yes
Scenario◦Villain raises “X” amount preflop, Hero calls◦Hero will only continue with hand if flops a set◦Villain has an 3% chance of flopping a set
If Hero flops set as well, Hero will lose to set over set◦When Hero flops a set, Hero will stack villain 50% of the
time
Set Mining
Not profitable to set mine under 50bb
100bb should be considered “threshold” for profitability
Set Mining: Demo
$10 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off
Hero Chip Stack
Not profitable to set mine under 50bb
100bb should be considered “threshold” for profitability
Set Mining: Demo
$21 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off
Hero Chip Stack
Scenario◦Villain raises “X” preflop, 1 caller, Hero calls◦Hero flops a “generic” draw (merge flush/straight draws)
Hero’s draw will have 20% chance of hitting◦Villain will fire 2/3 pot bets on each street
Caller folds on flop◦ If Hero hits draw on turn or river hero shoves
Villain will call Hero shove 50% of the time 5% of the time, each villain will have a better hand (i.e.
overflush)
Drawing
Drawing
Hero Stack Size
$15 preflop raise, $15 dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Open EndedStraight Draw
Drawing
Hero Stack Size
$26 preflop raise, $26 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Open EndedStraight Draw
Drawing
Hero Stack Size
$15 raise pre, $15 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Straight Draw+ Flush Draw
Drawing
Hero Stack Size
$26 raise pre, $26 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time
Straight Draw+ Flush Draw
Hero is in position vs thinking/aggro player (V)◦ V raises with a top 20% range◦ Hero will call/float with a top 10% range (excluding hands Hero
would 3-bet like AQ+, JJ+) Villain raises X preflop, two callers, Hero calls Villain c-bets, other players folds, Hero calls Villain Turn Action dependant on Hero SPR◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V hits, V will bet strong (2/3 pot)
Hero will only call with TPGK or better◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V misses, V will bet weak (1/3 pot)
Hero can then raise or bet and V will fold◦ If Hero SPR < 1 & V misses, Villain will put Hero all-in
Hero will only call with TPGK or better
Floating: Targeting Thinking and Aggro Players
Differences in Short Stack vs Normal / Deep Stack can result in a FACTOR OF TEN difference in EV
Summary Part I