pnc financial services group covering analyst: matthew miller email: [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
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PNC Financial Services GroupCovering Analyst: Matthew Miller Email: [email protected]
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Business Overview
› Founded in 1852 as The Pittsburgh Savings and Trust Company
› One of the largest diversified providers of financial services in the U.S.
› Strong loan and customer growth in 2012
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PNC is Growing
Percentage Growth
2012 2011 2010
Retail Checking Relationships 12.39% 5.42% 1.39%
Corporate Banking Total Loans 27.66% 15.26% -3.79%
Asset Management Group Total Loans 4.63% -3.07% -5.47%
Residential Mortgage Loan Originations 33.33% 8.57% -45.03%
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Improving Credit Metrics
Credit Metrics 2012 2011 2010
Asset Quality
PLL/Loans 0.53% 0.72% 1.66%
Non-Accruing/Loans 1.75% 2.24% 2.97%
Charge-Offs/Loans 0.69% 1.03% 1.95%
Loan Ratios
Loans/DD+TD 87.20% 84.60% 82.12%
Loans/Assets 60.92% 58.63% 56.98%
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Scope
› 2,881 Branches
› 7,282 ATM Machines
› 18 States, Washington D.C.
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Geographic Scope of Operations
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Revenue Breakdown
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Revenue Breakdown
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Financial Services Industry
› Consolidating
› Changing regulatory environment
› Sustained low interest rates
› Projected 5.2% growth 2012-2017Industry Statistics ($ in billions) Industry PNC Share
Total Assets $13,070.00 $300.80 2.30%
Total Loans $6,901.00 $177.80 2.58%
Bank Net Income $34.72 $0.92 2.65%
Avg ROA 1.07 1.04
Avg ROE 9.46 8.22
Avg NI Margin 3.44 3.71
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Consolidation
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Regulatory Environment
› Basel III– Draft regulation published
› Implementation– Began 1 January 2013– End 1 January 2019
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Low Interest Rates
› Current prime rate is 3.25
› Expected to remain low– Shrinking net interest
margin
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Comparable Analysis
› Growth, risk, and products and services– U.S. Bancorp 22.5%– CIBC 22.5%– J.P. Morgan 20%– Toronto Dominion Bank 20%– Wells Fargo 15%
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Comparable Valuation
Multiple Implied Price WeightP/B 108.70 10.00%P/TB 102.07 10.00%P/Loans 76.46 40.00%P/E 66.04 40.00%Price Target $78.08Current Price 62.39Undervalued 25.14%
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› Values only the equity– No WACC– No Working Capital
› Reasons for not doing a DCF– Interest– Debt– Working Capital
Excess Return Model
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Excess Return ModelNet Income Available to Commone Shareholders $2,003 $3,011 $2,998 $2,832 $3,473
% Growth 50.32% -0.43% -5.54% 22.62%
Equity Cost 3,572
Excess Equity Return -99
Cumulated Cost of Equity
Present Value
Beginning BV of Equity 39003
Cost of Equity 8.88%
Equity Cost 3572
Ending BV of Equity 39003 42380
Net Income $3,473
Dividined Payout Ratio 2.75%
Dividends Paid $95
Retained Earnings 3377
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Excess Return Model Assumptions
Excess Return Model Assumptions Considerations
Tax Rate 24.50% Terminal Growth Rate 3.00%
Risk Free Rate 2.01% Terminal Value 2,685
Beta 1.21 PV of Terminal Value 1,612
Market Risk Premium 5.67% Sum of PV Free Cash Flows 80
% Equity 11.37% Excess Equity Value 1,692
% Debt 88.63% Total Liabilities 263,342
Terminal RFR 3.18% Current Book Value 39,003
CAPM 8.88% Market Capitalization 40,695
Terminal CAPM 10.06% Fully Diluted Shares 529
Implied Price 76.94
Current Price 63.87
Undervalued 20.47%
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Final Valuation
Method Implied Price Weight
Excess Return $76.94 50.00%
Comparables $78.08 50.00%
Price Target $77.51
Current Price $62.39
Undervalued 24.23%
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Questions?
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Recommendation
› Based on my analysis I have found PNC to be significantly undervalued. Therefore I am recommending a buy for all portfolios
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Appendix 1: Payout Ratio
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Appendix 2: Dividend Yield
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Appendix 3: Projected Dividend