player movement, play evaluation, defenseurtasun/courses/csc2541_winter... · counterpoints:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Player movement, Play evaluation, Defense
Jackson Wang, March 2017
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Papers
Generating Long-term Trajectories Using Deep Hierarchical Networks
Defensive Metric
Counterpoints: Advanced Defensive Metrics for NBA Basketball
CHARACTERIZING THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF DEFENSIVE SKILL IN PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL
Expected Point Value
POINTWISE: Predicting Points and Valuing Decisions in Real Time with NBA Optical Tracking Data
A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes
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Hierarchical Policy Network
Goal
Given movement history, predict future movement
Key insight
Player movements are governed by higher-level goals
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HPN - method
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HPN-details
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HPN-visualization
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HPN-results (I)
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HPN-results (II)
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HPN-failure cases
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HPN - comment
The notion of weak label
No player identity
...
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Defense - Intro
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Defense - assignment
Defense (j), offense (k)
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Defense - HMM
Parameters: 6 scalar weights, variance, 1 scalar “switch” probability
Hidden: “assignment”
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Defense - inference
Note: all defensive players are independent
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Defense - inference E-step
Bishop, Christopher M. "Pattern recognition." Machine Learning 128 (2006): 1-58.
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Defense - inference M step (emission)
Solved analytically using constrained generalized least square
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Defense - inference M step (transition)
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Defense - results
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Defense - App
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Defense - App
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Defense - App
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Defense - App: counter-point
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Defense - comment
simple model
Not using player information, defense/offense strategy
Lack player dependent physics (e.g. speed, acceleration)
“Average defense”, no notion of “good” defense
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Halftime
Sequence generation
Defense inference (maybe not generation)
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Expected Point Value
What leads to a good shot is what’s really important (assist?)
Dynamic game
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EPV app - stock ticker
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EPV app - stock ticker
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EPV-app: EPV-added
EPVA = EPV - EPV_r for all possessions
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EPV-app: Shot Satisfaction
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EPV-theoretical definition
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EPV-”coarsened processes”
A coarsened description of the basketball world (i.e. someone has ball, passes, shoots, end)
Markov
Decoupling events
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EPV-schematic
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EPV-combining C and Z
Assumption1: C is marginally semi-Markov
Assumption2:
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EPV-model
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EPV-microtransition model
Offense: players move based on “who”, “velocity”, “where”
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EPV-macro entry
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EPV-macro entry
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EPV-macro exit
Turnover -> “end”
Pass -> continue with a new ball handler
Shot ->
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EPV-learning
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EPV-learning
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EPV-result
Compare “transition probability” with simpler baselines
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Conclusion
SportVU data opens up a new perspective on analytics (not just basketball)
Difference approaches (i.e. stats, ML, engineering, …)